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Another potentially very nasty storm showing up for 162 on the GFS

 

gfs-0-162.png?18

 

Also showing on the GFSP but a bit further North and West.  Hope these don't come to fruition!

 

gfs-0-162.png?18

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Righty-Ho. This can't pass without comment. Below follow just a random snapshot of detailed medium range briefings from Ops Centre made in first days of Jan, looking towards what was then the 10-15d

Je suis charlie

A bit of clarity re EC Monthly prognosis and expectations further ahead. The broad scheme of things sees a shift in balance re lows to NW becoming more aligned further away to the north from the UK, u

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Another potentially very nasty storm showing up for 162 on the GFS

 

gfs-0-162.png?18

 

Also showing on the GFSP but a bit further North and West.  Hope these don't come to fruition!

 

gfs-0-162.png?18

Blimey, where's the UK gone!?
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The cold spell of January 2013 comes to mind of one time where the Metoffice did make an early call on the potential for cold weather during the middle to later part of the month. Of course we were watching an SSW take place but the models didn't show any cold weather setting up until quite late.

ECM ens out now

 

 

 

k.

 

and the 2010 cold late November I suspect, although my memory could be faulty that they predicted it consistently some time before the models showed any consistency and before the 15 day time impression from the anomaly charts. Could be wrong but I am sure someone will have their 15-30 day and 6-15 day predicts for early to mid November 2010?

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Well.....

gfs-0-216.png?18

gfs-1-216.png?18

It's better than nothing I guess, a lot of stormy weather to get through before we can hope the Azores high can build into the north Atlantic. Only 9 days away so an improvement on the last run :p

The Op has a much messier cold plunge at this time before the usual low resolution shenanigans occur.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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GFS Australia now on Meteociel. :)

 

attachicon.gifgfsau-1-114.png

 

 

Looks fairly mild. :laugh:

Hang on,i will get my coat,i meen my t-shirt :laugh:

 

and @ 264hrs another storm @940 mb,in fi of cause

 

post-16960-0-18598000-1420756717_thumb.p

 

ooooh!!

 

post-16960-0-84995600-1420757101_thumb.p

 

this eye candy just gets better :D

Edited by Allseasons-si
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I always look at the charts and see how the rain that enters through the NW over wigan and liverpool go as far as runcorn... maybe up to crewe and then stops and when the rain comes from any other direction is like there is a blocking just on this area of merseyside

 

then when charts (GFS 0.5° HR) show snow around this area, it never gets to penetrate to this channel, looks like if there is some sor of blockeage on top of me! LOL

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/102h.htm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/78h.htm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/120h.htm

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/27h.htm

 

I know it might be off topic... does anyone here have ever seen this or are there any explenation for this?? Im starting to think that clouds, rain and snow want to avoid me!

 

(NO SCIENTIFIC REFERENCES what so ever IMO) I've been looking charts for quite a long time but never fully understood whats behind... just the colors and legend 

 

thanks!!!!

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Very nice!

 

Ens are looking nice AGAIN!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=372&size=

 

I really hope that the GEFS are onto something here. Us coldies have been so patient and surely it's time for our luck to finally change.

 

I sincerely hope so.

 

GFS central England certainly looking cooler rather than mild.

 

graphe6_1000_253_96___.gif

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Very nice!

 

Ens are looking nice AGAIN!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=372&size=

 

I really hope that the GEFS are onto something here. Us coldies have been so patient and surely it's time for our luck to finally change.

 

Taken together with the ECM ens which show a definite trend towards colder conditions, and I'm encouraged. Still in cloud cuckoo land for the real stella charts but interesting to watch for trends nonetheless. Ptb 2 on the GEFS tonight is insane!

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I sincerely hope so.

 

GFS central England certainly looking cooler rather than mild.

 

graphe6_1000_253_96___.gif

 

Northern England 850's, Coldest set of the Winter so far!

 

graphe3_1000___-2.264150943396224_54.696

 

I think it 'may' be safe to say it's going to get rather chilly. The big question is, how chilly, and for how long!?

Edited by SE Blizzards
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I think SM post is very consistent with the current model set up, (although it may change ie, further north or south) but the current models show a Northern England event for snow, and yes this will include North Midlands ie Peak District North wards to include the northern parts of Derbyshire. Although you will need elevation for full snow event as we can all witness the recent Boxing day event which had over a 8 to 10 inches of lying snow in the Derbyshire Peaks, the models are consistently showing the potential for more snow in this location.

 

its still looking good here,(sorry to be to IMBY) BUT currently the models are doing well in predicting snow in this area. 200mts plus in a North Westerly flow will always produce the goodies for the Peak District.

 

:clapping:

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Very nice!

 

Ens are looking nice AGAIN!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=372&size=

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=384

 

I really hope that the GEFS are onto something here. Us coldies have been so patient and surely it's time for our luck to finally change.

 

Slightly ironic if it's the azores high migrating north that gives us the blocking after how troublesome it's been for cold synoptics this winter thus far.

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Slightly ironic if it's the azores high migrating north that gives us the blocking after how troublesome it's been for cold synoptics this winter thus far.

 

Yes. The Azores High gets plenty of stick, and rightly so in many cases during the Winter months, but as you say, this time it may indeed help us.

Still a long way to go, but things starting to at least look interesting for later this Month.

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Well I'm off to Wisconsin next week and it was -16 today!  Ouch - but you can go ice fishing on the Mississippi in LaCrosse which is where I will be.  Turns out that that's not too much fun as you can't really venture out to enjoy it for any period.   I remember a ciggie freezing to my lip in Minneapolis in the days before I quit that habbit.

 

A long way from cold verifying in the far South of the country but I'm sure lots are happy that at least the charts show it as a possibility.  The GFS ensembles start to show significant dispersion from the 19th but reasonably consistently downward track before this date.

 

As somebody who flies a lot for work it only takes a small event to grind the South to a halt as I can attest to on multiple occasions!   Makes sense really as you can see from this year so far the north of the country can get wintry synoptics from the North West but the high pressure to the South prevents that in anything but extreme situations, so the case for spending millions on specialist equipment is that much lower.

 

In the short run some cracking low pressure events to hit the country if you like your weather on the extremes.  I will put my hands up here and admit to loving the extremes of our weather in all its guises.

Edited by Trom
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Honestly I strongly believe we will now see run away cold charts.

By the end of this week or the end of the weekend really can see this change being more dramatic than being projected.

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Looking at current models mainly the GFS 18z Next Thursday could see a stormy period with squally wintery showers affecting some southern areas.and also eastern England in particular with gusts around 70mph on high ground and exposed coastlines. Certainly interesting model watching within T+144 hrs too.take care on your travels today and over the weekend.

Edited by sorepaw1
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Neither GFS, UKMO or GFSp have downgraded next weeks potential storm this morning unfortunately, starting to look a little ominous but thankfully enough time for something less destructive to be modelled yet.

 

gfs-0-156.png?0gfs-0-144.pnggfs-0-162.png?0

 

Yes the UK is under there somewhere. Let's hope it gets significantly downgraded.

 

Is this chart suggesting 80 to 90mph peak gusts across a large swathe of the country from GFS?

 

Rtavn15619.gif

Edited by Mucka
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