Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[snowice]

Ecm has a lot of pm air next week uppers near -8 by 216hrcovering the UK.

Edited January 8, 2015 by snowice

[MR EXTREMES]

Well there's a very very increased chance now of a progressive shift towards cold.

And the likely outcome will be that the more southerly low will slip ever further south east I wouldn't be suprised to see even more of these popping up eventually dragging down more Arctic than polar air.

The vortex movement over the past few days has most certainly shown a shift East and southeast and certainly weakening.

Another few days and it will be eye candy central.

Getting excited again cold heart of winter it most certainly is even if the last two weeks of jan and first week of feb gets colder then it's still a bonus.

Looking more and more likely in 09/10 before it did turn colder it was in a similar way.

End of jan and feb I reckon were all see some real wintry weather.

[Frosty.]

Not much mild weather on the ECM 12z out to T+168 hours, a strong influx of rather cold weather with wintry ppn with no doubt snow in places, especially on hills. Monday is briefly milder, wet and windy but soon turns cold again with snow showers.

Edited January 8, 2015 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

A definite trend through today from all models to have more aggressive/progressive pattern through to mid term.

This has three effects.

firstly bringing the possibility of damaging storms being further South. Secondly pushing any temporary snow lines in the zonal flow further South.Thirdly giving better prospects for colder pattern setting up toward last week of Jan but at least for low pressure to track S maintaining cold zonal conditions with the South increasingly in the firing line during 3rd week.

From this weekend the rest of Jan does not look like being typical January fare to me for the UK as a whole - with storms tracking further South than usual, with storms being more intense than usual and with more cold air in the mix than usual though as always experiences will differ from region to region.

Edited January 8, 2015 by Mucka

[Mark Neal.]

A fascinating ECM run, cold zonal as previously mentioned with the Lows on a more Southerly Track basis. Cold prospects certainly look to be much more pleasing, need model agreement and get the cold charts into the more reliable. Promising charts though!

[nick sussex]

It's very difficult to pin much detail on the medium term apart from the Azores high displacing.

 

Upstream there are uncertainties over the western Atlantic as southern stream there ejects several lows, uncertainties with the northern stream over Canada and whether these phase and when.

 

The general trend is to bring the jet a bit further south but overall its a messy picture, some surprises could occur snow wise but as yet no clear signal to develop some deep cold.

 

Regardless of what the GEFS or ECM ensembles come up with in their latter timeframes, its a case of seeing if this actually ticks down. We've spent half the winter chasing any decent cold, I do hope that we can at least see some proper cold arriving before the end of January.

[Winter Cold]

Yes im much happier tonight, just ran through all the models on Meteociel and pretty much all of them, for nearly all of the time have -4 uppers or better accross the UK from this weekend. Good stuff!

 

I really hope this maintains in the output as it does increase the chances of the south getting in on the action. The potential storms could be bothersome, however nothing set in stone yet.

 

Ive never been in a real blizzard, perhaps I will get the chance looking at these charts! :cold:

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM not showing any consistency from around 6 days out, so not really any point drawing any solid conclusions about where we are heading. The coldest point still seems to be Saturday night though there are extensive periods where the 850s hover between -4 and -6C. One of those set ups which would be good enough for areas north of Birmingham with wintriness in the precipitation, those areas further south would probably call tonight's ECM as close to par of the sights we saw last winter with frequent bouts of heavy rain and gales.

We need the Azores high to displace and build in the Atlantic and not disappear off the face of the Earth like it did last year. Still it is better than last year as at least we are receiving some reasonable amount of cold air from the northern most reaches of the Atlantic Ocean.

Edited January 8, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[weather_it_will]

ECM is a zonal horror story for anyone in Birmingham and southwards. Nothing in the way of snow on offer in the more reliable time frame.

 

 

 

GFS has the low further south which may result in wintry showers on the hills very briefly on the back edge of the evening rain.

Very little to get excited about for most of us.

[cheshire snow]

It's very difficult to pin much detail on the medium term apart from the Azores high displacing.

 

Upstream there are uncertainties over the western Atlantic as southern stream there ejects several lows, uncertainties with the northern stream over Canada and whether these phase and when.

 

The general trend is to bring the jet a bit further south but overall its a messy picture, some surprises could occur snow wise but as yet no clear signal to develop some deep cold.

Hi Nick

just one question, with the current set up why would snow be

a surprise, fully agree about the deep cold though.

C.S

 

Regardless of what the GEFS or ECM ensembles come up with in their latter timeframes, its a case of seeing if this actually ticks down. We've spent half the winter chasing any decent cold, I do hope that we can at least see some proper cold arriving before the end of January.

[Banbury]

ECM is a zonal horror story for anyone in Birmingham and southwards. Nothing in the way of snow on offer in the more reliable time frame.

 

 

 

GFS has the low further south which may result in wintry showers on the hills very briefly on the back edge of the evening rain.

Very little to get excited about for most of us.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3721.gif

 

Really, its an increasingly cold outlook

[Frosty.]

I must say, after reading the earlier met office update talking about mild and very mild weather with just short colder interludes, the Gfs and now the Ecm show a distinct lack of mild and rather a lot of cold with reload potential, a chilly ecm tonight.

[terrier]

I must say, after reading the earlier met office update talking about mild and very mild weather with just short colder interludes, the Gfs and now the Ecm show a distinct lack of mild and rather a lot of cold with reload potential, a chilly ecm tonight.

but frosty the met office have been bang on this winter. Think until they come on board we should remain cautious of the charts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM is a zonal horror story for anyone in Birmingham and southwards. Nothing in the way of snow on offer in the more reliable time frame.

 

 

 

GFS has the low further south which may result in wintry showers on the hills very briefly on the back edge of the evening rain.

Very little to get excited about for most of us.

 

Most realistic post on here maybe for the south, no snow at all low levels south, just try to make the most of any dry windows timed for the day! they will be rare,

[chris55]

Something's brewing I tell ya!! Those consistent GFS runs a few days back for the 17/18 onwards are still in my mind. Ok we may well still have little idea of the actual eventual outcome but a change to something colder and more blocked for the latter third of Jan certainly looks possible. Ill be keeping a keen, but not to expectant eye on things

[nick sussex]

 

It's very difficult to pin much detail on the medium term apart from the Azores high displacing.

 

Upstream there are uncertainties over the western Atlantic as southern stream there ejects several lows, uncertainties with the northern stream over Canada and whether these phase and when.

 

The general trend is to bring the jet a bit further south but overall its a messy picture, some surprises could occur snow wise but as yet no clear signal to develop some deep cold.

Hi Nick

just one question, with the current set up why would snow be

a surprise, fully agree about the deep cold though.

C.S

 

Regardless of what the GEFS or ECM ensembles come up with in their latter timeframes, its a case of seeing if this actually ticks down. We've spent half the winter chasing any decent cold, I do hope that we can at least see some proper cold arriving before the end of January.

 

By surprise I meant not in snow falling but perhaps with some more appreciable snow for favoured areas, and possibly lighter amounts effecting more areas. It depends really how far south the jet comes and whether we see some runner type low engaging some colder air.

 

However what people I expect are wanting to see is ice days, longer term snow and as yet we don't see this.

[knocker]

A nice example of the 'run' of the colder air

Chart courtesy weatherbell

 

[Eugene]

but frosty the met office have been bang on this winter. Think until they come on board we should remain cautious of the charts.

 

 

I'll say this again, December wasn't too bad at all with some very cold days just after xmas, tired of people making it sound like it's been a mildfest so far, much colder from mid next week.

[winterof79]

By surprise I meant not in snow falling but perhaps with some more appreciable snow for favoured areas, and possibly lighter amounts effecting more areas. It depends really how far south the jet comes and whether we see some runner type low engaging some colder air.

 

However what people I expect are wanting to see is ice days, longer term snow and as yet we don't see this.

Some maybe Nick,I for one am not at the moment.True cold zonality is on the cards kinks in isobars and thunder snow a real possibility next week onward.Ordinary zonal it IS NOT.As for the "time is running out"post,I suggest a trip to the tap as your cup has sprung a leakðŸº

[Cheese Rice]

Very little to get excited about for most of us.

It's an exciting outlook for those in Northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. A good 25 million people live in this area so exciting for alot of us really. Edited January 8, 2015 by Cheese Rice

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It's an exciting outlook for those in Northern England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. A good 25 million people live in this area so exciting for alot of us really.

 

Agree fully with this as well sadly, northern members have right to be excited, enjoy it folks

[damianslaw]

Overall trends from models today - unsettled for the foreseeable future but trending cooler with much less marked warm sectors as we are currently experiencing - subtle shifts in the position of the azores high is key, models point to it ridging NW allowing a tilt and buckle in a much less potent Jetstream next week on a NW-SE trajectory, indeed similar to early-mid December. There is a good deal of consistency in this theme across all models.

 

The trigger to a less mild outlook looks like being a secondary low feature mid next week interacting with a NW-SE tracking Jetstream, behind this feature the azores high ridges NW and we begin to see higher heights to the NW.

 

Longer term - uncertain, but ECM and GFS are both keen on developing mid atlantic heights and colder flow from a northerly direction.

 

I read some forecasts predicting a winter full of swings from notable mild to cold, so far the swings have been more in favour of mild, but for the north some quite cold conditions as well - Sat will be a good example, the models are suggesting the swing may just start to favour the colder side more as we move into the second part of the winter.

[Hocus Pocus]

but frosty the met office have been bang on this winter. Think until they come on board we should remain cautious of the charts.

Indeed, as it would be foolish not too, but since the MetO updates the momentum for a colder outlook is increasing with each run/day. All eyes will be on Exeter's  updates over the coming days and hopefully MOGREPS and the ECM clusters will be singing from the same hymn sheet come the end of this week.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

but frosty the met office have been bang on this winter. Think until they come on board we should remain cautious of the charts.

No, and on that note no one has.   I think there is plenty of interest over the next 7 days to keep us on here in large numbers and I think the SSW we've had [i know minor] but still enough I think to have a pattern changing/shifting effect come late Jan into beginning of Feb.  Then there is my storm watch period, IMO loads to get on with.

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Paul]

As last night, posts moaning about location bias (or imbyism as some have coined it) aren't going to last in here, as clearly they're not model discussion..