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Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
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Posted

Oh what the heck, here it is....

 

h500slp.png

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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted

Oh what the heck, here it is....

 

h500slp.png

 

A beaut that sure is but at that range its a long way off to be getting excited

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Oh what the heck, here it is....

 

h500slp.png

 

Boo! you will be telling us the football scores next!

Just kidding.  :acute:

 

Boom indeed. (If very deep FI)

 

Looking forward to Frosties snow charts this evening.

Edited by Mucka
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snowfish1 Aficionado

snowfish1

Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
Posted

Oh what the heck, here it is....

 

h500slp.png

A thing of beauty....May she blossom into the snow maiden of models.....

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Oh what the heck, here it is....

 

h500slp.png

at 16 days out, what could possibly go wrong  :rofl:

 

Still at least it tries, unlike Parallel McScrooge

 

gfs-0-240.png?12

 

A lot of potential storminess to come and perhaps wintriness at times in the north.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted (edited)

Oh what the heck, here it is....

 

h500slp.png

 

.. charts like that were being shown for several days earlier then that one recently...they were dropped, so i wouldnt get too excited yet! its over 2 weeks away and has little chance of verifying (though not impossible)

Edited by mushymanrob
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Seems GFSp wants another storm for good measure in deep FI, this would certainly be interesting.

 

gfs-0-288.png?12gfs-2-276.png?12

 

And talking of Boom charts in deepest FI.

 

gfs-0-348.png?12gfs-2-348.png?12gfsnh-0-372.png?12

 

 

Certainly potential for weather headlines to dominate the News before January is out.

Edited by Mucka
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SE Blizzards Rising Star

SE Blizzards

Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
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Posted (edited)

T384 mate. That's three hundred and eighty four hours away

 

Erm, i think i know that mate. I didn't once say it would verify, did i ??

 

It's just great to look at after seeing weeks of complete mild gunk being churned out!

Edited by SE Blizzards
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

GFS Op not going with the explosive cyclogenesis of  its Brother or UKMO and if the low develops less and tracks further South there could be a very big snowfall on its Northern flank.

gfsnh-0-168.png?12

 

Much rather the big snow event than a more dangerous storm event though I guess they both carry risk. For a weather enthusiast it is very interesting period weather either way.

 

These Channel Low events have shown up over several days worth of 12z runs of late, with timeframes of such an event varying from the 15th to 19th January, so certainly not out of the realms of possibility for it to happen for some snow-starved Southerners. More runs are most definitely needed however, but  :smiliz19: Christmas (White) may arrive albeit it missed the party, again in a week or so's time if Mother Nature decides we are worthy of the white stuff.  :cold:  

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

The charts from mid week onwards next week are showing signs of surprise snowfalls in ever decreasing temps.Wintriness is guaranteed in the north over the next week plus.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

.. charts like that were being shown for several days earlier then that one recently...they were dropped, so i wouldnt get too excited yet! its over 2 weeks away and has little chance of verifying (though not impossible)

I have a feeling, looking at what the GEFS have been signalling,that something close to that scenario with heights to our west and lows to our east may verify earlier than that.Say 20th onward.Just a hunch....we'll see.

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
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Posted

Some really active weather on the cards now and going forward with an increasingly cooler Atlantic pattern in the next week or so.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=48&mode=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=1

A trend to gradually bring more polar air into the mix and as others have said some snow for northern and some western areas quite likely,particularly over higher elevations, as colder air tucks in behind frontal systems.

No solid sign of any cold blocking yet but a little more ridging in the Atlantic could be enough to see chances of snow further south so a trend to look for in the coming days.

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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted (edited)

Not sure what is happening, but  it looks as if the low to the west of Ireland is splitting into two parts -

 

1) Heading towards North West Scotland on an NE course. (as forcast)

2) Heading towards South West England on a ESE course.

Hope the link works.

Yippee it does..... :pardon:  :pardon:  :yahoo:

 

http://www.sat24.nl

 

 

Not sure what to make of it really, but if it happens then it could change the next 3 - 4days quite a bit.

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

GEM pick of the crop so far this afternoon

gem-0-198.png?12

gem-0-240.png?12

Northerly followed by an attempt to build heights to our north east. Need to see this picking up in the consistency stakes.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Nor sure what is happening, but  it looks as if the low to the west of Ireland is splitting into two parts -

 

1) Heading towards North West Scotland on an NE course. (as forcast)

2) Heading towards South West England on a ESE course.

Hope the link works.

Yippee it does..... :pardon:  :pardon:  :yahoo:

 

http://www.sat24.nl

 

 

Not sure what to make of it really, but if it happens then it could change the next 3 - days quite a bit.

 

MIA

 

all part of the same system moving as the main pattern shows, towards NW Scotalnd

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

GFS short ensembles

 

NW England

 

graphe3_1000_232_33___.gifgraphe6_1000_232_33___.gif

 

Central England

 

graphe3_1000_252_82___.gifgraphe6_1000_252_82___.gif

 

SE England

 

graphe3_1000_291_133___.gifgraphe6_1000_291_133___.gif

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Here are some more snow charts from the GFS 12z op. Next week could produce surprise snow for areas not expected to be in the firing line, through FI the risk of snow increases further. In summary, becoming cold with snow showers for exposed north western UK this weekend, milder, wet and windy on Monday spreading SE followed by snow showers, perhaps as far south as the Midlands, wet midweek with snow on the leading edge, possibly northern England but could be adjusted north or south. Further ahead we could all see snow at times.

Things are looking a lot better than they were last week, let's hope for a more wintry outlook. :-)

post-4783-0-95087100-1420738131_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-50126100-1420738137_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-84279900-1420738143_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-48569800-1420738149_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-11418200-1420738159_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted

all part of the same system moving as the main pattern shows, towards NW Scotalnd

 

John not disagreeing , but I am not certain, it does look to be splitting away completely if you follow the time series...

.

It could indicate a desire to form secondary lows on the cold front as it moves south, holding it back and with the possibilty of you know what on its northern edge. 

 

MIA

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

you could be right although to me looking at the Iceland IR path not really, link below, looking at the 300mb GFS flow, link below again, and that shows the flow has a ese touch to it but that will change to s of west as the low deepens and moves a but further north of its current track. It does look complex but I doubt it will do what you suggest partly due to the overall speed of the whole system and a further system following up behind it?

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

For those of us not here this morning could you please tell us what the ecm extended were showing, thanks.

 

I'm guessing something along these lines?

 

post-2839-0-93908600-1420740799_thumb.pn

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