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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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The GFS and (P) this morning are running the usual story of low pressure systems running around the HP to the south. The sequence here.

http://weather.graphics/gsm/ygfs_t1534_global.php

 

As you can see at T240 it has built the Atlantic ridge but this appears transitory looking at the GFS, So the usual N/S split and temps around average or slightly above. I've put any posts regarding tonight in the relevant thread.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

post-12275-0-40444200-1420697860_thumb.p

post-12275-0-94513500-1420697868_thumb.p

post-12275-0-96165300-1420697876_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

 

Some of the 18Z ENS in FI look pretty decent with the main core of the PV transferring itself over to the Siberian side, And PLENTY of amplification in the Atlantic, shown nicely here in the Day 16 mean chart...

 

 

gensnh-21-1-384.png

 

ENS members showing interest...

 

 

 

Unlike some, I am certainly not giving up hope on a cold spell developing during late January...

And no matter how long it takes i will keep searching till i'm blue in the face until i find one that actually verifies!!

Here's a glimmer of hope, ECM day 9

ECH1-216.GIF?08-12

It could turn interesting from here or just a brief colder snap. Nothing showing of interest on the GEM.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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Next weeknd continuing to look of interest. Incidentally, ECM day 8 - not often you see a patch of sub 510 dam a few hundred miles west of Ireland!!

 

Hi BA- i would imagine that not 510 DAM in the way that we associate it with the 528 & 510 line....

 

its low heights for sure but not low thickness-

 

S

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Atlantic domination throughout on the GFS....is there no end? Good chance of snow over high ground in favourable areas from PM air (Scotland, Pennines, N Wales).

 

Some ridging in the Atlantic showing in far FI but seems transient.

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Quite a wintry outlook for the northern half of the UK from Saturday, despite the zonality. Saturday night/Sunday morning, Tuesday and late Wednesday particularly snowy for Scotland, Ireland and perhaps N England as waves of cold Pm air spread in, bringing sleet/snow showers, which may merge into longer spells with troughs in the strong flow.

 

GFS consitently showing a back edge snow event for much of the UK late on Wednesday next week, though I imagine this could be downgraded for southern areas nearer the time.

 

post-1052-0-58196000-1420703123_thumb.gipost-1052-0-18283200-1420703129_thumb.gi

Edited by Nick F

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The chart below is the main interest for me and in my opinion the ECM would go the same way.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2761.gif

 

I mentioned this yesterday about low pressure taking a SE,ly track with pressure rising behind bringing an E,ly.

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After some wobbles the GFS P and Op are back aligned with regard to the toppler around D9-10:

 

post-14819-0-69336300-1420702148_thumb.ppost-14819-0-15426100-1420702149_thumb.p

 

ECM is also trying that route now at D9: post-14819-0-12700200-1420702236_thumb.g 

 

Before that ridge we have a cold front crossing around D7 then the low dragging in cold uppers on its rear at D9 so potential for more sustained snow during those events. Too early re specifics but one to watch still. Snow before then mainly confined to the NW from the cold PM flow. The GFS D7 totals highlight this:

 

post-14819-0-12398400-1420702726_thumb.p

 

Stormy for the North from early tomorrow morning and gusty for most of the UK (especially west) most of tomorrow into Saturday:

 

post-14819-0-82761000-1420702962_thumb.p post-14819-0-03398000-1420702983_thumb.p

 

Mild Friday with +12c uppers in the south but the cold front clears South during Saturday. Highs of 12c in the Birmingham area Saturday but down to 6c by 2pm Sunday.

 

After D10 on the GFS P it looks to be an outlier. The op heads for a trough close to our east: post-14819-0-78368500-1420703529_thumb.p

 

There is about 20% support for this within the members with a similar amount very close to that synoptic. So some interest.

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Hi BA- i would imagine that not 510 DAM in the way that we associate it with the 528 & 510 line....

 

its low heights for sure but not low thickness-

 

S

 

I don't follow that, could you perhaps clarify. They are both a function of temperature the difference being thicknesses give a better idea of temp structure between individual levels but at the end of the day a low 500mb height will equate to average low thickness heights given that the 500mb height is the sum of the thicknesses.

Edited by knocker

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Morning all,

 

Are we now seeing the stubborn low heights circa Greenland being removed with something more conducive to cold for the UK?,

 

Z500 anomolys seem to think so,

 

Starting chart ECM ECH101-0.GIF?08-12

 

   

 

 

 

Day nine ECH101-216.GIF?08-12

 

 

 

 

GFS start gensnh-0-5-0.png

 

 

 

 

 

Day nine gensnh-0-5-216.png

 

 

 

 

 

Further down we can see more signs from the surface pressure,

 

GFS day ten  npsh500.png

 

ECM day ten,

npsh500.240.png

 

GFS ensembles on the slide,

 

MT8_London_ens.png

 

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Hi BA- i would imagine that not 510 DAM in the way that we associate it with the 528 & 510 line....

 

its low heights for sure but not low thickness-

 

S

Really - Around 511 dam thickness but it's maybe 700 miles west of Ireland !

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Quite a wintry outlook for the northern half of the UK from Saturday, despite the zonality. Saturday night/Sunday morning, Tuesday and late Wednesday particularly snowy for Scotland, Ireland and perhaps N England as waves of cold Pm air spread in, bringing sleet/snow showers, which may merge into longer spells with troughs in the strong flow.

 

GFS consitently showing a back edge snow event for much of the UK late on Wednesday next week, though I imagine this could be downgraded for southern areas nearer the time.

 

attachicon.gif162_20.gifattachicon.gif168_20.gif

Lol apart from the south just one flake or one little shower haha

Anyway once these two intense storms have moved through watch for the changes.

I'm still punting for end of jan for some form of blocking and turning colder.

Slight signs showing but not enough to warrant shovels and sledges here in the south for awhile but the North look generally cold and snowy and very windy.

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For me the best thing about this morning is how the look of the vortex in both of GFS's and the ecm , it's really showing signs of weakening and looks likes the last 3'rd of jan may be the turning point for our winter .

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.... and the noaa anomaly charts are now shifting from the strong westerly, not by much, but enough to allow the general synoptic pattern now coming into view @ t240 ?

 

post-2797-0-70420500-1420709355_thumb.gi post-2797-0-18317400-1420709376_thumb.gi

 

that ecm @240 is well inline (i believe) with what the noaa chart would allow for. so a few days later then originally progged, but a quite large shift towards a colder outlook is this morning gathering pace for later next week.

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A quick look at the extended mean anomalies. The ECM eps at T360 is pretty much zonal with weak heights NE North Americal into western Atlantic. weak Hudson vortex and trough (also quite weak) from Greenland orientated SE over the UK and Europe down to the Med. And a ridge Alaska towards the Pole. So surface LP NW of the UK >SE with HP to SW thus a westerly flow. Temps probably a little below average but no sign of any extended cold spell.

 

The GFS has the ridge mid Atlantic orientated NW/SE thus pushing the trough over the UK further east but result surface wise similar to the ECM. Conclusion they are both more or less on the same page.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

post-12275-0-65490500-1420710849_thumb.p

post-12275-0-59471100-1420710864_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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Not sure what to make of the gfs and ECM at moment. Yes some colder pm shots. But just seen tweet from Ian ferguson saying westerly pattern to dominate till end of jan now. With any cold signal been tenuous.

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Really - Around 511 dam thickness but it's maybe 700 miles west of Ireland !

 

Looks like the real deal 510 thickness to me.

 

ecm05_nhem_gh500_gh500-1000_2015010800_1

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Not sure what to make of the gfs and ECM at moment. Yes some colder pm shots. But just seen tweet from Ian ferguson saying westerly pattern to dominate till end of jan now. With any cold signal been tenuous.

 

 

Actually terrier the tweet says, late January  not the end of January and seeing as the 20th January could be classed as late January it actually fits in quite well with what the ecm and gfs are trending towards.

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Not sure what to make of the gfs and ECM at moment. Yes some colder pm shots. But just seen tweet from Ian ferguson saying westerly pattern to dominate till end of jan now. With any cold signal been tenuous.

We'll see how that pans out.  So on face of it, does he mean we'll be as we are right now?  Westerly pattern could still be affecting us by months end but technically we could be in position where the change is occurring?  Don't take too much out of a tweet  

 

BFTP

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A quick look at the extended mean anomalies. The ECM eps at T360 is pretty much zonal with weak heights NE North Americal into western Atlantic. weak Hudson vortex and trough (also quite weak) from Greenland orientated SE over the UK and Europe down to the Med. And a ridge Alaska towards the Pole. So surface LP NW of the UK >SE with HP to SW thus a westerly flow. Temps probably a little below average but no sign of any extended cold spell.

 

The GFS has the ridge mid Atlantic orientated NW/SE thus pushing the trough over the UK further east but result surface wise similar to the ECM. Conclusion they are both more or less on the same page.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

 

 

The snapshot clusters at around that time (T372) supports that mean. Only 20% (cluster 4) go with the more amplified flow with the 528 dam in the Midlands. 25% has HP over the UK and 55% go with the zonal flow:

 

post-14819-0-41660200-1420711941_thumb.j

 

However with the op and control in the more amplified cluster then there remains some potential though the most likely solution is a continuation of the Atlantic flow. Week 2 on the latest JMA also goes with this:

 

post-14819-0-91830300-1420712111_thumb.p

 

Week 3-4 keeps the main vortex to our NE with a trough digging further into Europe, so we would be on the colder side of the flow:  post-14819-0-41949600-1420712253_thumb.p

 

Again any upper blocking anomaly remains on the other side of  the NH. So no surprise that we will likely enter Feb without optimum conditions for a sustained cold spell, though we should see more seasonal weather and the north could have repeating transient wintry output.

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