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Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

A nice ECM tonight for coldies to round off another day of exciting model watching! Something for everyone this week it seems, whatever your preference may be. A very fun wintry week to enjoy our countries wonderful and diverse weather to the max :)

 

Also its nice to see the PV continuing to be weakened at the end of the runs. Again ECM tonight has Greenland amost clear of it at T240. Enjoying the continuing trend of improvements to our NW:

 

ECH1-240.GIF?11-0

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

...........I think the charts have looked interesting for this coming week since New Year Frosty. GFS has certainly been keen on this storm midweek since it came into T300s, but was showing more of a ridge of HP for the end of the week.

It's great to see cold and wintry charts break into the reliable timeframe, seriously the models were relatively poor last week and even the optimist I am, I was near despair last Monday but really much happier now, it looks like the south should also see snow to some extent during the week ahead as well as the rest of the UK.

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A few comments earlier rubbished those gfs snow charts i posted but it's interesting to note the updated met office 3-5 day has mentioned snow to low ground on Tuesday. And where the trough lines occur there could be a surprising amount of snow in a short space of time. Things are really cranking up now, we have a wintry Tuesday, a stormy midweek and then another cold blast later in the week..this is more than I could have hoped for considering how poor the models were looking a week ago.

 

Fantastic point Frosty, the models 7/10 days ago were looking dreadful for the upcoming week with a mild zonal flow dominating, charts change all the time >7 days ahead so best not to take much notice of them unless they show a repeat of Jan 1987 of course. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Nice ECM det with regards to the evolution post the colder interlude at the end of the week. PV over Greenland and Atlantic push looks less intense, let's hope this trend continues.

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Good to see the ECM op on the ens trend as it looks to sink the vortex remnant towards nw Europe post day 10.

Certainly at odds with the ncep modelling at that timescale.

only gfs/p isn't finding the feature in the south this Friday. The fax is awaited with interest.

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

ECM 0z was pants.

 

ECM 12Z much better imo.

 

I know i have been banging on about this for a few days now but again tonights ECM has seemingly transferred the core of the PV over to Siberia later on in it's run, and heights are trying desperately hard to rise over the Greenland area. This is a trend that's been showing for a while now and shouldn't be ignored. Whether it is correct or not we won't know for sure for a while yet, but as long as it keeps cropping up we should be encouraged by it.

 

To illustrate this:

 

Here is today's Today's Chart showing a strong and angry PV near Greenland, NE Canada.

 

ECH1-0.GIF?11-0

 

Now look at the Days 9 / 10 charts.

 

ECH1-216.GIF?11-0

 

ECH1-240.GIF?11-0

 

 

The main core of the PV has once again gone over to Siberian. And if the run went out further there 'may' of been some subtle hints of some Amplification trying to get going in the Atlantic.

 

Overall a pleasing ECM 12Z, with very little in the way of mild on offer.

 

ECU0-48.GIF?11-0ECU0-72.GIF?11-0ECU0-120.GIF?11-0ECU0-144.GIF?11-0ECU0-168.GIF?11-0ECU0-192.GIF?11-0ECU0-216.GIF?11-0

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Still learning so be gentle do u think a trend to colder drier weather is on the cards for Feb or back to mild again

Too early to say that the long range guidance will change.

I believe more settled and cooler under a block which them sinks sw and allows a WSW zonal flow. that's according to glosea and ec32 anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

A few comments earlier rubbished those gfs snow charts i posted but it's interesting to note the updated met office 3-5 day has mentioned snow to low ground on Tuesday. And where the trough lines occur there could be a surprising amount of snow in a short space of time. Things are really cranking up now, we have a wintry Tuesday, a stormy midweek and then another cold blast later in the week..this is more than I could have hoped for considering how poor the models were looking a week ago.

Yes Frosty, no sooner had I started criticising them that they turned out to be (potentially) true - on this occasion!! I conclude, it's not easy for any of us to predict borderline snow without the extra charts that the pros have. Obviously some GFS snow charts verify and some don't, and I'm at a complete loss to tell the difference, can anyone help!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Still learning so be gentle do u think a trend to colder drier weather is on the cards for Feb or back to mild again

I think the only genuine answer is that at the moment, no one knows........if anyone claims otherwise, they should be immediately be awarded the nobel prize for advancement of science..........at the end of the day, all models are computer generated algorithms reliant of the initial data entered, and as such the further into the future they predict, the lower the verification probability

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GEFS anomalies at T240 and extended T360 differ somewhat.

 

The former has HP NE Norther America with ridge eastern Pacific and trough Alaska/Siberia to the Pole. Main trough Greenland running SE over the UK into Scandinavia and northern Europe down to the eastern Med. So surface analysis LP dominating eastern Atlantic from Iceland to eastern Europe bringing wintry conditions to the UK with temps below average with 850s emanating from west of Greenland.

 

All change at T360 with the main features being the resurgence of the Azores ridge to the SW of the UK pushing the trough much further east bringing more settled HP weather to the UK moving towards above average temps.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

post-12275-0-97017600-1421004926_thumb.p

post-12275-0-07096900-1421004935_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

I think the only genuine answer is that at the moment, no one knows........if anyone claims otherwise, they should be immediately be awarded the nobel prize for advancement of science..........at the end of the day, all models are computer generated algorithms reliant of the initial data entered, and as such the further into the future they predict, the lower the verification probability

Indeed, focus on the next week , lots of weather coming up, in various guises , but some really nasty weather as well, :cold:  :shok:

post-6830-0-00491800-1421004874_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

I think the only genuine answer is that at the moment, no one knows........if anyone claims otherwise, they should be immediately be awarded the nobel prize for advancement of science..........at the end of the day, all models are computer generated algorithms reliant of the initial data entered, and as such the further into the future they predict, the lower the verification probability

 

Agreed: would be nice if we knew the verification stats for the METO models (the ones we don't see)

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Good to see the ECM op on the ens trend as it looks to sink the vortex remnant towards nw Europe post day 10.

Certainly at odds with the ncep modelling at that timescale.

only gfs/p isn't finding the feature in the south this Friday. The fax is awaited with interest.

I wouldn't worry about the fax chart at 5 days out. The track of this feature (if there is one) will change over the next few days. I will wait until we get to the 48 - 72 hour time frame.
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

The GEFS anomalies at T240 and extended T360 differ somewhat.

 

The former has HP NE Norther America with ridge eastern Pacific and trough Alaska/Siberia to the Pole. Main trough Greenland running SE over the UK into Scandinavia and northern Europe down to the eastern Med. So surface analysis LP dominating eastern Atlantic from Iceland to eastern Europe bringing wintry conditions to the UK with temps below average with 850s emanating from west of Greenland.

 

All change at T360 with the main features being the resurgence of the Azores ridge to the SW of the UK pushing the trough much further east bringing more settled HP weather to the UK moving towards above average temps.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

And that later part seems to tie in with Ian's earlier post.

HP centred to south or south west eventually by early Feb?

Still, this week we should see an attempt at winter, for the South.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Messy scenario coming up with a the line between rain and snow so fine it would slice a tightrope walker in half.

To be honest it would be nice to see charts producing some form of heights to our north to clearly get us over the game line in terms of snow potential. This alluded to by Steve as well, the opportunity is there. 

There would be a chart following this but there were none in the GFS suite to suggest a good end game (most blocks to the north east are too far east and leave us in a westerly still)

The ECM does remove the warm sector at day 8, so we end up with a straight occlusion which again could give some snow. Trouble is throughout we are hovering on the -4C to -6C line in terms of 850s in a westerly flow. Any slight modification of the 850s and other factors could push most low lying areas into the rain category and leave a lot disappointed. 

Anyway we need to see improvements from here

ECM1-168.GIF?11-0

Stronger ridging to get a decent wedge of heights and push the jet south. 

Given the GFS and ens and the rather strong bias from other models to edge the Azores high north eastwards towards the end of the month I feel we only have a small window to turn the tide. 

That said, there are plenty of transient opportunities from Birmingham northwards. Lets hope for improvements in the coming couple of days :)

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And that later part seems to tie in with Ian's earlier post.

HP centred to south or south west eventually by early Feb?

Still, this week we should see an attempt at winter, for the South.

 

 

He said flow direction hard to determine with likely transition to freezing fog / frost which sounds wintry to me, whose to say the anticyclone won't retrogress in February, that is when the atlantic typically dies down.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Fantastic point Frosty, the models 7/10 days ago were looking dreadful for the upcoming week with a mild zonal flow dominating, charts change all the time >7 days ahead so best not to take much notice of them unless they show a repeat of Jan 1987 of course. :D

 

How did I forecast snow being quite possible between the 13th and 15th ten days ago then?

Snow has been looking like a possibility for a long time in a cold zonal flow but yeah charts change - they do tend to be much better with zonal condtions than blocking though so the 8 to 10 day charts won't be far wrong IMO.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

A few comments earlier rubbished those gfs snow charts i posted but it's interesting to note the updated met office 3-5 day has mentioned snow to low ground on Tuesday. And where the trough lines occur there could be a surprising amount of snow in a short space of time. Things are really cranking up now, we have a wintry Tuesday, a stormy midweek and then another cold blast later in the week..this is more than I could have hoped for considering how poor the models were looking a week ago.

 

Yes indeedy, and note that not everyone has taken their eye off the ball (this is not intended as a dis to anyone btw), but I did anticipate a growing trend to something both wintry and stormy to gather apace by now, as hinted at below, some four days ago.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/?p=3108079

 

Still hints albeit just outside FI (suggestive as Thursday PM right now given NWP divergence), that come next weekend, more hints of widespread wintriness, all complete with a NH Jet which wants to dive ever Southwards on occasion. Don't pin too many hopes on this latter aspect right now given the timescales and background signals but this zonal flow is looking likely to deliver all sorts of fun and games for a fair representative part of the UK population. Potential for Channel Lows, Thundery showers, Hail, Sleet, Snow and Gales all just about within the reliable timeframe.  :D

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

So whats the day 10 story re the Azores high?

post-6981-0-30658200-1421007125_thumb.jp

post-6981-0-99450900-1421007133_thumb.jp

post-6981-0-00263000-1421007324_thumb.jp

post-6981-0-48726900-1421007335_thumb.jp

post-6981-0-86743900-1421007346_thumb.jp

post-6981-0-44076800-1421007355_thumb.jp

ECM ens mean, ECM op, gefs ens mean, gem ens mean, gfs op and gfs para

At this stage, the ncep ops are output of kilter with the Azores extension into Europe.

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: snow!!!!
  • Location: Stourbridge, West Midlands

Brief update. High confidence now on snow for parts of W Country later Tues/Tues night. Several cm possible higher ground, notably (as it stands) Exmoor, northern Mendips Plateau; parts of Cotswolds. Likely the shower line (to Cb) extending down roughly M4 to give some surviving all the way towards London. Fairly high depth temperature should help prevent much low-lying accumulation. Different story on uplands aforementioned. Meanwhile, the troubling-looking 12z UKMO GM for Friday, which would yield substantial snow across SW/W Country, considered low probability. Low is most likely to head to Portugal, around the high, Exeter reckon. That's it from me for a while...cheers.

Anything at all for West Mids showing ..pleeaasseeee

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