Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

ECM extended eps continue to increase the depth of the low anomoly across the uk and eventually sinks it. We do begin to see the Azores making an attempt to ridge back ne into Europe but that's at T360. Does look a pretty good ' 'mean' effort though at such a range. Wouldn't be drawing any conclusions at this stage and this looks a much more sustained cool to cold period than the one progged back end December. The chances of the end ECM op chart occuring in the 10/13 day period is decent. I don't think some of you realise what a cool/cold nw euro trough can lead to at is time of year. It's not all about v low uppers when heights and pressure are low. some. Of the least exciting looking charts can lead to the best consequences re snowfall.

Anyway, tomorrow's 00z run could well left the trough a bit again. I recall last Saturday nights or Sunday mornings ECM run lowered the jet only for it to be wrong and the subsequent output lifted it to where it has verified.

had that ECM been right, imagine the current NWP shifted 400 miles south. hence the 'positive' cold posts at that time.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Well, northern scotland has been battered twice so far in the last 2 days with power outages all over the place

Indeed, including power outage causing cancellation of Scottish Premier League match... at the Global Energy Stadium (Ross County)... :rofl:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Good agreement now between 12z EC and UKMO global/4km modelling on snow-prone areas of south next week (Exmoor/Quantocks; Dartmoor; Mendips & environs). Assessment of E4 suggests circa 2-5cm possible over these uplands. Some wet snow/sleet still likely to lower levels in same general area(s) late Tuesday as WBFL drops to ca. 200m. Re Thursday, Exeter have modified GM to ensemble consensus (further north), albeit strongest winds remain as previous signal (W/SW/S England; gusts widely to 50kts; stronger in exposure of course but not akin to recent Scottish storm). Further ahead, 36 of EC members by 25 Jan have W/SW mobility (albeit by differing mechanism and with no discernable signal by then for vigorous cyclogenesis); the remaining minority anticyclonic, centred over or just S of UK. So, for now at least, continued support for the broad theme late Jan yielded in the most recent EC Monthly update.

Thanks Ian,

So i read that as saying a west/south west flow is anticipated by 25th Jan? Forgive me if i have read in to that wrongly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Thanks Ian,

So i read that as saying a west/south west flow is anticipated by 25th Jan? Forgive me if i have read in to that wrongly.

Not looking great for coldies in later Jan looking at that.... Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Further ahead, 36 of EC members by 25 Jan have W/SW mobility (albeit by differing mechanism and with no discernable signal by then for vigorous cyclogenesis); the remaining minority anticyclonic, centred over or just S of UK. So, for now at least, continued support for the broad theme late Jan yielded in the most recent EC Monthly update.

 

Plenty of time for change though Ian, since it's 15 days away?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Not looking great for coldies in later Jan looking at that....

Edited by Ali1977
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows the NW / SE jet alignment still looking strong at day 10 so further cold shots from the northwest and north would be in the pipeline well beyond T+240 hours in my opinion :-)

post-4783-0-24472500-1420926001_thumb.gi

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

12z NAEFS seems keen on a rejuvenated Alaskan ridge in FI.

 

post-2839-0-28055100-1420926330_thumb.pn

 

 

Another split vortex for the end of the month perhaps,and likely more favourable

for the UK.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Yes, but we already gauged that likely outcome from EC Monthly and Glosea. But no done deal at that range, of course. Anyway, colder phase in 6-10D period looking well-set, so that should satisfy the cold aficionados.

gfs now develops a little potent shortwave at 70 hours!! Doubt it will make any difference to the overall pattern anyway!!
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Coldly
  • Location: Methil, Fife

just checked the tide times for thursdays impending doom and thankfully we are only on a quarter moon by then, meaning tides are down 1m from a full moon. The predicted <960mb would have caused a half meter rise in sea level, thankfully it looks like any storm surge will have less impact.

 

post-23079-0-54308600-1420926687_thumb.p


just checked the tide times for thursdays impending doom and thankfully we are only on a quarter moon by then, meaning tides are down 1m from a full moon. The predicted <960mb would have caused a half meter rise in sea level, thankfully it looks like any storm surge will have less impact.

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-01-10 at 21.48.22.png

Thats leith on the firth of forth tides only folks  :fool:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

another nasty looking feature to contend with next week along with some potent lows

 

gfs-0-78.png?18?18

 

at t+78h gfs op.

Edited by doctor32
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Coldly
  • Location: Methil, Fife

another nasty looking feature to contend with next week along with some potent lows

 

gfs-0-78.png?18?18

 

at t+78h gfs op.

GFS-P not showing much interest tho..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

GFS-P not showing much interest tho..

 

Gfs - p not as pronounced as its older brother but it still could bring some snow to parts of central/northern england as shown by Gfs-p

 

72-574PUK.GIF?10-18

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

funny really, we are all supposed to be weather enthusiasts, yet the potential storm next week is being largely ignored in favour of a few flakes of snow.

now i'm desperate as anyone to see some proper wintry weather, i want to take my kids sledging and drive my land rover about in the snow.

in the current set-up some areas will see plenty of snow but where i live is unlikely to see anything more than a brief flurry.

never mind though, i won't have a mental breakdown over it!

however, there is a (potential) major weather event happening next week which will (for us weather nuts) be quite exciting, yet also very dangerous. particularly relevant to me as i'm in the middle of an urgent roof repair job which means it has to be finished and scaffold tower down before the storm hits. large swathes of the more heavily populated areas of the country could be hit so i for one will be watching this closely.

i suppose it means i could get a few more roof jobs but i'd like one left myself just in case it does snow!

To be fair, there's a dedicated thread for that:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82219-atlantic-storms-january-2015/

Not to say it can't be bought up in here of course, but there's plenty of chat happening in the other thread.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Coldly
  • Location: Methil, Fife

It is these type of little features that you have to keep an eye on in this type of airmass, they could give a surprise snowfall as I mentioned yesterday.

Steep learning curve, one for the notebook sir! cheers 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Pub runs are downgrading any northerly next weekend. In truth it was always an insipid affair anyway. This slightly flatter outcome was in line with many of the 12z ensembles so not really a surprise.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Both the GFS op and parallel are flatter beyond Thursdays with event. 

gfs-0-168.png?18

gfs-0-168.png?18

Ties more in with the ECM output from earlier, still cold but again northern western areas favoured for any wintry precipitation apart from potential transient frontal stuff.

 

Decent low resolution of course :p

Edited by Captain shortwave
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

To be fair, there's a dedicated thread for that:https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82219-atlantic-storms-january-2015/

Not to say it can't be bought up in here of course, but there's plenty of chat happening in the other thread.

of course paul but theres also a dedicated thread for snow.

this storm (potentially) could have a much greater impact than even heavy snow, therefore deserves as much interest via the models as any other weather type.

throw in some low 850 temps and... blizzard heaven for us snow lovers!

edit- and what ian said!

Edited by bobbydog
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...