Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[Dancerwithwings]

i  hope there a downgrade  before wednesday    935  mb  over scotland

And maybe another 935mb winter storm come Thursday but alot further south!!!  it's all if's a this stage, one thing is certain a very interesting week coming up

 

[MR EXTREMES]

And maybe another 935mb winter storm come Thursday but alot further south!!!  it's all if's a this stage, one thing is certain a very interesting week coming up

 

and this is exactly how i expect future runs to react more i candy to come in the next few days.

even something white coming out of the sky suggests a cold heart of winter.

 

no one suggested a mega freeze and although not expecting much down here suggestions of some cold is better than last year.

still 6 weeks of true winter left and i still hold firm that the models are slowly moving towards that pivotal point where anything can happen but likely to flip colder.

[stainesbloke]

Some extremely mild temperatures across parts of Central Europe today (18C in Vienna currently!), with gales across much of northern and central parts of the continent.

Looks like a wild week to come here weather wise too, looking at the models. Not boring by any means.

[Tamara]

I don't think anyone who has posted on this thread takes the prospects regarding the on going deeply cyclonic pattern lightly at all, and therefore it disrups the continuity of this thread by persistently nit-picking over anyone who comments exclusively on any other aspect of the modelling. Whether that is cold potential, or any other weather type for that matter.

 

In respect of the mid week storm, the EPS members out to the mid week period in question, apparently show very good agreement for the likely placement of the main secondary low feature that deepens rapidly around the base of the associated upper trough to be sitting close to NW Scotland. This placement of the overall feature also has very good agreement with the UKMO and latest GFS operational.

 

 

 

However, as a few of those EPS cluster members and various GEFS members illustrate, there are developmental wave features within the overall progression of this secondary low that suggest subtle general scale, but very large pinpoint variations in micro regional UK terms, as to where the highest wind-field impacts might be.

 

In respect of phasing and timing of rapid cyclogenesis events such as this, four/five days is a long time for detailed assessment to evolve - so far too soon anyway to make definitive predictions yet obviously for possible worst affected regions.

 

Suffice to say though, that larger areas much further south look set to be threatened by this low than the very damaging impact low that most especially hit the North and West of Scotland a couple of days back

 

I've said a lot recently about the longer term possibilities and as suggested last night there is little to add pending uncertainties to some developments that should hopefully be answered better in the coming days.

 

At this stage, the retrogression of the upstream pattern in the 10 day period continues to support and indicate a colder trend as the Azores High adopts a more favourable positional aspect in this regard, to try to amend for the very unfavourable role it has been playing in severely tightening the pressure gradient differential between itself and the intense cyclonic path funnelling along the intense jet streak just to the north of the UK.

 

In stratospheric terms, there is a bridge to gap between upstream amplification of the pattern (such as we saw in late December and now see coming into focus for the middle third of January) and when more sustainable benefits might arrive courtesy of 'minor' SSW down welling to provide a longer lasting more negative AO profile. Realistically the latter is unlikely to at least months end at the earliest, but more especially into February.

 

The optimist in me that subscribes to growing impetus of a colder trend, as posted last night, is based on troughing into Scandinavia being assisted by further wave 2 activity around the mid month period, suppressing vortex re-organisation to our NW, in tandem with the upstream retrogression signal occurring shortly afterwards.

 

However, in the absence of full co-operation from the tropics and ocean vs atmospheric state, its a case of whether we can bridge into a period where the upper mid/stratosphere warming finally provides tropospheric assistance in slowing down the westerly pattern more sustainably in our part of the NH

 

In respect of vertical wave activity, the GWO progression from current phase 4 into more positive AAM tendency Phase 5, and then subsequent orbit to 8/1 suggests both positive (Asian) and then negative (US) MT torque events in the pipeline - which will assist in mitigating any attempted vortex recovery following the minor SSW.

 

However, one step at a time.

 

A colder trend to come which will provide interest for sure  (although that next big storm worry in the way this coming week) and the days ahead both leading up to and following the storm will keep answering any further long term questions and uncertainties

Edited January 10, 2015 by Tamara תָּמָר

[SE Blizzards]

I really cant understand some of the negativity in here today, i really can't.

 

 

There have been quite a fair few hints recently that the main core of the PV will loosen it's grip over the Greenland area later this month and transfer itself over to the Siberian side, and i think if the ECM (see chart above) was to go out any further then it 'may' of shown something like this to happen.

 

I do feel that one or two members get too hung up over every GFS run, and as soon as it shows a 'milder' FI outlook people then start writing Winter off all over again.

 

The bottom line is it really could be a lot worse, we could be staring down the barrel of relentless mild wet S'Westerly crud like we were last year, but the fact is we're not. It IS set to turn colder, and these mean charts fully back this idea up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Smiler1709]

Not overly excited about current outputs. Good for Scotland and Northern Ireland especially at height but for the rest of us it looks cold, wet and windy. If we want a countrywide cold spell then we really need a block to form, from what I've seen that's not gonna happen.

Maybe our luck will change end of jan going into February.

Plus with the weather so choppy and windy I have zero chance of getting out to sea for some fishing so all in all rather frustrating. Would much rather have a nice artic high giving us beautiful sunny crisp days with light winds and freezing nights with harsh frost.

[sundog]

@SE BLIZZARDS It will be cold overall yes BUT not cold enough overall to satisfy most myself included.

Edited January 10, 2015 by sundog

[Frosty.]

This would be my idea of a good pattern going into late Jan & early Feb from the GEFS 06z control run..wintry with a vengeance. :-)

[SE Blizzards]

@SE BLIZZARDS It will be cold overall yes BUT not cold enough overall to satisfy most myself included.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/?p=3110692

[IDO]

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/?p=3110692

 

The problem is that the cold uppers coincide with the drier interludes; so yes if you like a cool feel then great. However I suspect most people are looking for snowy weather:

 

 

 

Any frontal precipitation is aligned (at the moment) with the warmer uppers. The slack cold upper flow will likely just favour coastal regions for wintry showers IMO.

[SE Blizzards]

The problem is that the cold uppers coincide with the drier interludes; so yes if you like a cool feel then great. However I suspect most people are looking for snowy weather:

 

gens-21-2-192.png  gens-21-0-192.png

 

Any frontal precipitation is aligned (at the moment) with the warmer uppers. The slack cold upper flow will likely just favour coastal regions for wintry showers IMO.

The mean chart i posted last night on post *619 was for last nights 18Z ens, it has now changed to the 6Z one, so doesn't actually reflect it very well now.

 

People WILL see some snowy weather over the next few days, especially the further North you are, i have little doubt about that, but maybe it just won't be a countrywide event! And according to Summer Sun it's snowing rather heavily RIGHT NOW in some place up north!

 

Anyway, the story is still the same imo, whether you like it or not the Models are showing a colder spell of weather is on it's way. How cold it will get, and how long it will last is anyone's guess at present.

Edited January 10, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Paul]

I have a feeling we could end up going in circles over this until the end of time. There no right or wrong here just different perspectives on the same story, so maybe just agree to disagree. Otherwise the fight to have the last word is going to become very tedious!

[mcweather]

Here's the latest tweet from someone who obviously spends a great deal of time looking at the models, quite of lot of which we don't have access too.

 

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather  Â·  2h 2 hours ago

W COUNTRY CONT'D...with temperatures generally below average & occasional N'ly bias to winds. Frost/ice/some snow possible into 6-15d period

[SE Blizzards]

 

Here's the latest tweet from someone who obviously spends a great deal of time looking at the models, quite of lot of which we don't have access too.

 

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather  Â·  2h 2 hours ago

W COUNTRY CONT'D...with temperatures generally below average & occasional N'ly bias to winds. Frost/ice/some snow possible into 6-15d period

 

 

Great update. Thanks for that.

 

And Agreed Paul. Time to move on from mild/not very cold/cold gate, or what ever you wanna call it.

 

Anyway, 12z's starting to roll out now, and no doubt they'll all show something completely different to what they were showing this morning..

[Timmytour]

I can imagine the Daily Mean CET yesterday will end up being one of the warmest ever for the first 10 days of January

So just as a comparison.....one of the previous warmest was this from 5th Jan 1957




To me the current set up has more potential than what is shown above.  But the progression to northerlies that year undertook does have a familiar ring about it with where the models are showing us heading to.

I hope that's not a sign of things to come.....any cold was short-lived, February was unremarkable and it was in the top 10% of warmest winters over the last 300 years!

Edited January 10, 2015 by Timmytour

[Cloud 10]

Still plenty of uncertainty with the track of the midweek low,with UKMO further south than gfs P.

 

gfs..  ukmo..

[fergieweather]

Decent signposting even way back on Jan 3rd from EC-EPS re broadscale developments into mid-month. The early signal for a vigorous low over or close to UK circa 15th Jan was particularly impressive.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Memorable for all the wrong reasons?

 

952mb centre over Scotland.

 

12Z Thursday 06:00

 

 

Lands End off the scale.

 

 

Ian

[bradymk]

Decent signposting even way back on Jan 3rd from EC-EPS re broadscale developments into mid-month. The early signal for a vigorous low over or close to UK circa 15th Jan was particularly impressive.

impressive!! Shows why the clusters are generally the best tool to use most of the time and also why the ECM is still the number one model.

[IDO]

Decent signposting even way back on Jan 3rd from EC-EPS re broadscale developments into mid-month. The early signal for a vigorous low over or close to UK circa 15th Jan was particularly impressive.

 

 

Yes and GFS OP on Jan 01 at T372 for the 17th:  Current chart for that date: 

 

And GFS picked up that low on the 2nd Jan, though as a smaller feature but on the 3rd: 

 

I think both models handle zonal weather very well. 

Edited January 10, 2015 by i'm dreaming of...

[bobbydog]

Decent signposting even way back on Jan 3rd from EC-EPS re broadscale developments into mid-month. The early signal for a vigorous low over or close to UK circa 15th Jan was particularly impressive.

the modelling of this storm is pretty consistent, even at this range. what are the MetO thoughts on this? as it has the potential to be a fairly destructive storm

[blizzard81]

Assuming the GEM 00z run is way off the mark (waiting for the 12z), the reason it is different from the other suite is it makes much less of the pv over north east canada after week 1. The fact that this is a canadian model makes it quite astonishing that it could get the modelling in that area so wrong. Quite sad really!

[IDO]

I am going to miss the GFS op from next Wednesday. The P will take over. Just highlighting the differences they make for Tuesday's snow:

 

 

Two fronts moving across the south. The GFS P has has snow from the second front where as the GFS op has backend snow. 

Edited January 10, 2015 by i'm dreaming of...

[Mucka]

GFS Op and GFSp pretty poor for any sustained cold it has to be said with Azores high being the main player.

Hopefully there will be some much better FI solutions among the ensembles.

[Summer Sun]

Below average 2m temperature anomaly the vast majority of the UK over the next 8 days

 

 

Normal 2m temps left, expected 2m temps right

 

 

GFS P continues to hint at some fairly widespread snow early next week, although nothing substantial after nearly 2 years without snow for some its better than nothing

 

 

And again on the 18th & 19th