Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[bluearmy]

we arent far away from a proper cold spell. if we can just scrub some of the zonal momentum later next week then the incoming troughing can drop to the west of the uk  as it slides se against the small ridge thrown up ahead of it.. at the moment, both this fella and the one that follows are progged to slide just to our east which, whilst bringing a lee cold flow, will also bring a warm sector on its way in. 

[Winter Cold]

did you see the run WC?  it was broadly in line with the current ecm extended and continued the euro low anomoly (growing weaker) through week 3 followed by a more wsw zonal week 4. as ian mentioned yesterday re the ecm eps, probably a diverse clustering making any specific call difficult and i would guess not many really cold clusters.

 

its not singing a different song to the two week ens 

 

Hi BA

 

No i havent seen it myself, im just working off the quoted tweet on here and a few other comments. Ive looked at the GFS, ECM etc tonight and its far from 'grim' as was said in the tweet?? Thats really where my confusion has come from.

 

Next week is looking decent for snow prospects for a lot of us to me?

 

I suppose we shall just have to wait and see what happens after next week. I always look to see what you have to say on here and you seem pretty confident about a good NH pattern going forward?

[Rocheydub]

Some poetic licence please Moderators… If I may just say this again:

 

While I may lack the paperwork, and certificates hanging on the wall, I am very experienced at following the NWP and especially here over the last several years, experienced in following weather forums. I will offer these following paragraphs for those frustrated at the patterns on offer from the vast majority of models.

 

1: Look away. Take a few days off. If your favorite weather pattern isn't on show, take a few days away, and look again. They do often chop and change beyond day 5 and more you know!

 

2: If you don't like what you're currently seeing, don't go on a tirade against that particular model. It's just a computer generated idea of what the future may hold, it's not actually setting the future weather patterns!

 

3: Please don't take your whimsical pain out on other members because you don't see the future as you wish it to be on the models...

 

And finally

 

4: Listen to the likes of John Holmes, Tamara, Steve Murr (even though he is quiet of late :-) and Chionomaniac, Recretos and Matt Hugo on the strat thread and here on MOD, to name but a few, and to some more of the moderators when it comes to the variances of the many daily runs. There are some wise weather folk on this blessed site, and for this I am very thankful. Last thing I want to see, is the lot of the moderators, get wildly pee'd off with all the off topic posting, in-house fighting, and all the "pushing of the forum rule boundaries" that they all quit. I've seen it before.

 

Enjoy all of the weather. Like I do. Be it cold, warm, windy or calm. Snowy, rainy or sunny. The site and it's members don't control it. 

Edited January 9, 2015 by Rocheydub

[fergieweather]

mushymanrob, agree, I mentioned the very cold SW'ly showing for Tuesday would produce big snow totals to higher parts of S/SW, our areas though look snow free

There's no sign of 'big totals'. Some accumulating snow looks quite likely across e.g. SW moors; Cotswolds; perhaps across to Chilterns too. But amounts don't look at all bothersome in the latest E4 diagnostics. At lower levels in the S, some transient sleety falls expected by UKMO later into Tuesday, as WBFL falls widely to circa 100m. But focus next week is the Weds-Thurs cyclogenesis event. Worth adding that latest EC clusters hint of more similar scenarios extending as a risk a fair way further on into the rest of Jan.

[damianslaw]

BBC update this evening also supportive of the cooling trend next week - even mentioning lying snow at the north at times and a hint of something colder and drier by end of next week. The BBC were spot on in early-mid December with the similar cooling trend.

[JoeShmoe]

with most of the uk now expected to see at least some snow before the end of next week. D

I know you're the eternal optimist Frosty but I'm not entirely sure that's a fair reflection of the output as I see it !

[fergieweather]

surely there is a storm on the ECM, it's just that it crosses the UK between 120 and 144 and so doesn't show? although probably not at strong as on GFS?

Some pretty potent solutions showing on T+120, +132 and +144 EC12z stamps and reflected in EC-EFI 10m gust diagnostics.

[JoeShmoe]

There's no sign of 'big totals'. Some accumulating snow looks quite likely across e.g. SW moors; Cotswolds; perhaps across to Chilterns too. But amounts don't look at all bothersome in the latest E4 diagnostics. At lower levels in the S, some transient sleety falls expected by UKMO later into Tuesday, as WBFL falls widely to circa 100m. But focus next week is the Weds-Thurs cyclogenesis event. Worth adding that latest EC clusters hint of more similar scenarios extending as a risk a fair way further on into the rest of Jan.

Thanks Ian, so the EC clusters continue to indicate a high powered jet then until the end of the month? Is the MetO current view of next week storm that its severe (as GFS) or less (as ECM)?

edit : think you've just answered that above !

Edited January 9, 2015 by JoeShmoe

[bluearmy]

Charts Ba plse as I don't see anything up to wk4,that inspires a sustained cold spell

Topplers as u pointed out earlier but not a 2 week cold spell unfortunatly

look at the ECM run and with a less vigorous jet, that system at day ten would slide se. there will be another one to follow. if the systems stay to our sw on their journey from w to e, we'd stay north of the PFJ all of the time. That keeps the uk in the cold air.

Given Ian's post, it seems unlikely that this momentum will relax though.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Well, i have to say, the ECM 12Z was a bit of a stinker of a run for Coldies..... In America! 

 

In all honesty though, a very pleasing ECM tonight, and 'maybe' small signs later on in the run of a pattern setting up similar to the one BA was talking about earlier.

To be fair, the Americans would be hoping for something milder after the extremely low temperatures, the complete opposite as us, it's currently 15C!

 

The ECM 12z has some encouraging charts after T168 as do the GEM and JMA models.

[Paul]

The GFS update has been confirmed as going ahead on the 14th from the 12z run..

[Captain Shortwave]

The Parallel has moved to a shallower and fast tracking system now

Still very windy in the south with gales but nothing too severe.

 

GFS op still goes for the stormy solution though

 

The parallel will be of interest to see whether it can develop a similar pattern to the ECM.

Edit looks pretty good by day 8 with a decent Atlantic ridge. It looks like I stole the ops booze though sorry 

Edited January 9, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[fergieweather]

its getting colder and colder

Certainly chilly by end part of next week onwards into rest of 10D period on EC-EPSgrams for central-S'rn England. Even the 'milder' oscillations won't feel thus, due to windiness.

[Fred Sykes]

Thanks Ian, so the EC clusters continue to indicate a high powered jet then until the end of the month? Is the MetO current view of next week storm that its severe (as GFS) or less (as ECM)?

edit : think you've just answered that above !

Why do people who ask questions, only to realise they know the answer, write "edit........."? Why not just delete your post?

[shaky]

Certainly chilly by end part of next week onwards into rest of 10D period on EC-EPSgrams for central-S'rn England. Even the 'milder' oscillations won't feel thus, due to windiness.

ian theres a lot of banging on about surprise snowfalls next week but do the models that your looking at behind closed doors suggest anything worth taking note of snow wise! ! Latest 18z gfs has snow across midlands around 90 hours!!

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2015010918/gfsnh-0-192.png?18

 

GFS P swings to the GEM & ECM solution..

S

[SE Blizzards]

Well, well, well. What do we have here then?

 

 

Some support for the GEM perhaps?

 

Edit: King Steve beat me to it!

Edited January 9, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Frosty.]

I know you're the eternal optimist Frosty but I'm not entirely sure that's a fair reflection of the output as I see it !

I'm not just an eternal optimist, ive been on here for ten years and learned a few things. As for the comment you refer to about at least some snow, are you aware that could mean a few wet flakes..I never said anything about accumulations although I do expect snow to build up on northern high ground at times next week.

Edited January 9, 2015 by Paul
No need Karl :-)

[SE Blizzards]

Pub run at t364 I give up

It's been at 364 all winter

 

Ok, see you next Winter! 

 

That chart you've posted just illustrates what the gfs has been trying to do for a few days now in FI and that is transfer the main core of the PV over to the siberian side. A great trend to be constantly seeing in it's output.

 

And it's brother agrees with it...

 

Edited January 9, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Its incredibly mild tonight, just driving home from work and the car was reading at 14c! Not sure what the record is for Jan but this is surely well above the average 

[JoeShmoe]

I'm not just an eternal optimist, ive been on here for ten years and learned a few things. As for the comment you refer to about at least some snow, are you aware that could mean a few wet flakes..I never said anything about accumulations although I do expect snow to build up on northern high ground at times next week.

Ok, I wasnt having a unnecessary pop or anything as I enjoy your posts, but I just wasn't seeing widespread snow next week - at this stage at least - as by the nature of PM airflows in winter, modification and flow often mean only certain areas see any wintry showers

(I.e the Cheshire gap) . Having saidthat it certainly looks like being interesting, stormy, wintry showers, and not mild zonal mush

[Cleeve Hill]

Shocking for cold massive NAO..yes 12 z but pay no attention to the pub run

On the face of it you are right, but system is to the north of the U.k pulling in North Westerleys at the coldest part of our winter so I see lots of colder weather there with plenty of winterises.

[Froze were the Days]

Pub run at t364 I give up

It's been at 364 all winter

Never getting any closer - reminds me of winters of yesteryear when a lot of snow enthusiasts first started clocking the GFS, those winters when this happened generally amounted to not much (snow wise).

[Daniel*]

Never getting any closer - reminds me of winters of yesteryear when a lot of snow enthusiasts first started clocking the GFS, those winters when this happened generally amounted to not much (snow wise).

Why are we looking out into infinity? when what we have at our 'doorstop'. May deliver for many, in reliable timeframe.

[SE Blizzards]

London ECM ENS. 

 

 

Much colder set than the 0z's, especially for the period 16th - 19th!

 

Not much mild showing up. The cold signal is growing...

Edited January 9, 2015 by SE Blizzards