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Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

As others have mentioned, a quick route to HL blocking probably is an outsider but the ECM offers something of a (possibly more realistic?) slower evolution with a retreat westwards of the Azores High coupled with an increasingly favourable angle to the jet starting to slide energy out of Greenland on more of a NW-SE direction. What we want to see here is this passing through the SW quarter of the UK, or even better, to our SW. This would set up a great end to the month for sure!

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Posted
  • Location: Gloucester
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and lasting snow in Winter and gloriously long hot summers
  • Location: Gloucester

If the Azores can get far enough West then lows passing far enough SW of us is the best we can hope for right now

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Decent runs tonight, the 17th still sticks in my head from GFS FI from earlier in the week.

 

ECM 

 

Recm1922.gif

 

Nothing to amazing but certainly heading in the right direction.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Yes interesting that the UKMO supports the GFS, usually sides with the ECM: attachicon.gifUW144-21-3.GIF

The JMA also goes with a storm: attachicon.gifJ120-21.GIF

surely there is a storm on the ECM, it's just that it crosses the UK between 120 and 144 and so doesn't show? although probably not at strong as on GFS?

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

surely there is a storm on the ECM, it's just that it crosses the UK between 120 and 144 and so doesn't show? although probably not at strong as on GFS?

Yep, further south but still winds up to around 45-50mph sustained for the south of England, which is fairly intense still:

150109_1200_132.png

Into territory where areas to the NW of the low could see frontal snow:

150109_1200_132.png

 

Main difference with the GFS op is that it's a bit further south and passes over a bit later:

gfs-0-132.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

surely there is a storm on the ECM, it's just that it crosses the UK between 120 and 144 and so doesn't show? although probably not at strong as on GFS?

 

Here's the 126 and 132 hours charts.

 

ecm0125_nat_4panel1_2015010912_126.pngecm0125_nat_4panel1_2015010912_132.png

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Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Buxton, Peak District

Not so sure about how wintry next week will be.

 

The ensembles for this area (Buxton) suggest a mean of around -6c uppers over the coming week. The hills above 200m Peak District North should be ok for sticking snow but I will be surprised to see anything lower down.

 

My usual rule of thumb is when the wind comes from the Atlantic, uppers need to be around -8c or lower to get widespread snow

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It's typical that as the GFS's downgrade prospects the two models originally less than interested now take up the baton. If offered at this point I would grab the GEM and run to the hills sadly its reliability is questionable, the ECM with a few tweeks could be a lot more interesting.

 

Looking upstream although theres still uncertainty with some stream interactions at present we're unlikely to see the more inland runner type scenario. Any deepening of low pressure is more likely to occur off shore.

 

Overall we're still waiting to see some deeper cold get into the outputs and not hit the buffers, any cold still looks marginal for snow unless you're on much higher ground further north.

 

GFS snow charts are not to be trusted especially in PM flows , its important to take into account that its grids will show up more widespread snow than will actually fall, theres simply too much modification of the flow in this type of set up.

 

Some will get lucky and see some snow but for fear of being a Grinch after 6 weeks of winter I think we should be hoping for a bit more than chasing a few hours of slush around!

 

Lets hope that the GEM can come out of the shadows and actually be the leader rather than the also ran, that could at least deliver and the ECM with a westwards correction, the GFS's are very underwhelming regardless of what tease they throw up at T360hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I would describe tonight's GEFS 12z mean as chilly and very unsettled with lots of potential for wintry ppn and icy, frosty conditions, later next week in particular could be quite arctic with snow showers. Looking further ahead, with a northwest / southeast aligned jet we could expect more reloads of polar maritime / arctic sourced air to sweep across the UK. In general it's a wintry theme but with short lived milder, very wet and windy spells too.

post-4783-0-40036600-1420836093_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-15917900-1420836100_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-93037900-1420836105_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-17594500-1420836111_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-06747300-1420836118_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-21838900-1420836124_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-93773400-1420836132_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The cold front tomorrow will bring some very interesting weather along with a squall line and pyrotechnics to some given the sharp contrast of temperature along the cold front, Don't, look to much at the modelled precip charts as they almost always get them wrong in these instances , and in its wake plenty of convective energy especially on windward coasts but these filtering well inland to the rest of the country especially around the Cheshire gap into the Midlands ,into southeast England and across the Bristol channel across southern England. There will be those who see just sunshine on the whole tomorrow , but I think most of the Uk will see at least something Winter like, As we spread the week , next week looks potentially stormy around midweek...... :cold: After that, the synoptic charts show some cold weather , for the whole of the Uk , thanks to to the Big injection of Polar Maritime air.

post-6830-0-31201700-1420836450_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-01762600-1420836495_thumb.pn

post-6830-0-26635800-1420836538_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

Short ECM ENS for de bilt.

 

PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

 

Interesting that both the op and the Control are very close to being ice days at Days 9 and 10.

 

And looking at the Extended ENS the Control stays cold pretty much right through to the end (Day 15)

 

eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=6&carte=&mode=0

 

looking  like a  very windy and  stormy  week next week

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

You just cant beleive what the EC32 has supposedly spat out yesterday can you?? A million miles away from what all shorter term models are showing. Next week looks pretty wintry for a lot of the country and signs of cold persisting on models tonight?

 

Its very strange really, but for the ridiculous amount of money they charge (think ive heard 170k on here for ECM stuff) id be emailing the boss if i was a subscriber lol!

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

gem ensembles are interesting. There is a degree of support at day 10 for the opp. Interesting to see if the pub run or GEFS go a similar route. A long shot but times are desperate :-)

Edited by Jason M
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

You just cant beleive what the EC32 has supposedly spat out yesterday can you?? A million miles away from what all shorter term models are showing. Next week looks pretty wintry for a lot of the country and signs of cold persisting on models tonight?

 

Its very strange really, but for the ridiculous amount of money they charge (think ive heard 170k on here for ECM stuff) id be emailing the boss if i was a subscriber lol!

 

did you see the run WC?  it was broadly in line with the current ecm extended and continued the euro low anomoly (growing weaker) through week 3 followed by a more wsw zonal week 4. as ian mentioned yesterday re the ecm eps, probably a diverse clustering making any specific call difficult and i would guess not many really cold clusters.

 

its not singing a different song to the two week ens 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

 

 

but for the ridiculous amount of money they charge (think ive heard 170k on here for ECM stuff) id be emailing the boss if i was a subscriber lol!

I would just cancel my subscription..lol

 

Todays models have reinforced the colder trend in the short to medium term with just short milder blips but I think we will eventually have a sustained cold spell sometime between the middle and end of January, compared to the utter despair on here at the end of last week and beginning of this week, IMO we have seen a big turnaround with most of the uk now expected to see at least some snow before the end of next week and the north of the uk is in for a wintry day tomorrow with squally snow showers for exposed north western parts of the uk.. lamp post alert :D

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

I am not a great believer in the EC32 update and its reliability.

GEM out on its own at 240z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015010912/gemnh-0-240.png?12

 

GEFS 4,8,12,13 and 15 similar Atlantic view

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

All pie in the sky but better than looking at true zonal dross and when it may end.Look at these Northern Hemispheric babies.Vortex 0 Warming 5

gensnh-0-1-384.png gensnh-1-1-384.png gensnh-2-1-384.png gensnh-3-1-384.png gensnh-4-1-384.png gensnh-5-1-384.png gensnh-6-1-384.png gensnh-7-1-384.png gensnh-8-1-384.png gensnh-9-1-384.png gensnh-10-1-384.png gensnh-11-1-384.png gensnh-12-1-384.png gensnh-13-1-384.png gensnh-14-1-384.png gensnh-15-1-384.png gensnh-16-1-384.png gensnh-17-1-384.png gensnh-18-1-384.png gensnh-19-1-384.png gensnh-20-1-384.png gensnh-21-1-384.png gensnh-22-1-384.png gfsnh-1-384.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Belting prospects with a kink in the flow

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010918/gfs-0-96.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010918/gfs-2-90.png?18

 

With you Mucka.

Edited by winterof79
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