Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I think some living further North in the UK will likely disagree with your last sentence. There could easily be something wintry of note for them over the coming week or so.

For northern regions, it is quite common to get snowfall from Westerlies. The wintry weather of note I mention is for the whole of UK including low lying areas in the South.

Edited January 9, 2015 by prolongedSnowLover

[SE Blizzards]

More typical winter weather shown on the latest GFS op and UKMO with wet and windy spells interpersed with temporary ridges and frost potential. Nothing wintry of note showing yet.

 

I'm sorry but that's WRONG, and very misleading to newer members.

 

.

 

 

Lots of Polar Maritime sourced air, and plenty of snow opportunities being shown on the GFS op, especially the further North you are, and all being shown in the more reliable timeframe.

Edited January 9, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Chris K]

For northern regions, it is quite common to get snowfall from Westerlies. The wintry weather of note I mention is for the whole of UK as a whole including low lying areas in the South.

OK I understand where you are coming from I just wanted to highlight that there could indeed be quite a difference to what the Northern/Southern halves of the UK may experience weather wise in the near future (although it looks to remain generally unsettled for most for now)

[Barry12]

For northern regions, it is quite common to get snowfall from Westerlies. The wintry weather of note I mention is for the whole of UK including low lying areas in the South.

 

If your talking about the whole of the UK, then there is wintry weather on offer

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

If your talking about the whole of the UK, then there is wintry weather on offer

For S England ?

[TonyH]

More typical winter weather shown on the latest GFS op and UKMO with wet and windy spells interpersed with temporary ridges and frost potential. Nothing wintry of note showing yet.

Plenty wintry stuff showing 

[JoeShmoe]

 

...and dangerous in the north: gfs-0-138.png

 

 

again the obsession with snow + cold masking the fact the models still showing this at T+144 range - thats a record breaking storm, 935mb, be destructive in the central belt if that verifies

[bluearmy]

Go on - have a guess what the NH profile looks like at the back end of the gfsp ?

[Frosty.]

I will let these GFS 12z op run charts speak for themselves, for most of the run its reload after reload of polar maritime and arctic air bringing snow showers, ice and frosts with just short milder, wet and windy interludes, we would all see at least some snow, not just the north. This is a huge improvement on what the models were showing as recently as Monday this week.

[Barry12]

delete

Edited January 9, 2015 by Barry95

[blizzard81]

Go on - have a guess what the NH profile looks like at the back end of the gfsp ?

Don't have to guess! Have seen the charts which pretty much agree with your post this morning.

[MR EXTREMES]

Only one run but some very mild uppers moving in at D9+ from GFS op:

 

gfs-1-228.png  gfs-1-252.png

 

D11: gfs-1-264.png  D12: gfs-1-288.png

 

So uncertainty re the cold now and more like the early December pattern showing up.

haha i must laugh 1 day out of 14 days the one very high upper air chart that could possibly be wrong.

 

but the models are still throwing out wintry stormy wet weather and once again eye candy charts becoming more and more common.

 

some very extreme weather ahead and lots of snow for some even something wintry futher south is possible especially with -6 uppers over a large swathe of the uk.

 

of coarse add in heavier bursts snow is a big feature futher north with blizzard condition but also wintry weather futher south and always a possibility of a channel low now if this happens and it gets futher south this could well divert any heights to our sw or even west.

 

so to my eyes i see a trend building towards a colder and colder set up still strongly believe latter jan and perhaps start of feb could well be below average.

Edited January 9, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[Mucka]

For S England ?

 

 

Your post didn't mention Southern England, but although it is far more unlikely to happen than in the North a snow event should not be ruled out further South either as any disturbances in the flow at the base of a trough could produce snow on its Northern flank. I have discussed this previously but there is usually a few ensemble members that offer this prospect. For example the 12z run.

 

 

With uppers of around -7 something like that would likely produce widespread snow further South. Not saying it will happen but I think Steve M's post this morning rather underplayed the transient snow risk to many parts of the country though I understand where he is coming from while other people who should know better such as Matt Hugo have proclaimed the weather to be modelled as mild for rest of January on EC32 which is quite bizarre.

 

Maybe it is because any snow won't stick around or maybe it is just the frustration of people further South talking but I was talking about the potential for a widespread transient snowfall for the period 13th to 15 Jan just after New Year and I still hold that view now.

The problem is it will never be that cold so any snow will liekly be a slushy here and gone affair but it could turn up just about anywhere over the coming week or so.

 

Central England ensembles 12z

 

Edited January 9, 2015 by Mucka

[Midlands Ice Age]

Don't have to guess! Have seen the charts which pretty much agree with your post this morning.

Common on then, I have been out all day, and come back to a game of hide and seek? 

 

MIA

[gottolovethisweather]

This post from earlier seemingly fell on deaf ears then. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/?p=3110019

 

Don't be surprised if Paul and fellow moderators clamp down on some of the posts in here from now on.

 

In future, can posters please clarify their own post as to whether they are focussing on the near-term or deep FI and whether their own thoughts are biased towards an IMBY perspective. My post from earlier mentioned some folk getting the wintry stuff and at longer timescales that is probably the most precise one can be over specifics regarding snowfall and snow lying probabilities. As we head into next week, there is no doubt in my mind that another bout of snow will visit those who have had some previously this Winter but also many other folk can join the transient snowfall party, however fleeting those snowflakes might turn out to be in the end.    

 

Enjoy, chill out as it's only January 9th and more appropriately it's FRIDAY.   

Edited January 9, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[snowice]

Only one run but some very mild uppers moving in at D9+ from GFS op:

 

gfs-1-228.png  gfs-1-252.png

 

D11: gfs-1-264.png  D12: gfs-1-288.png

 

So uncertainty re the cold now and more like the early December pattern showing up.

oh go on don't forget to mention days 4,5,6 with-7 uppers.

[blizzard81]

Common on then, I have been out all day, and come back to a game of hide and seek? 

 

MIA

on phone so can't post charts. Gfsp shows core of the vortex moving to Siberia and lifting from Greenland with pressure rising here. All this towards the end of the run but it agrees with BA's thoughts this morning. This has been trending for a few days now on the gfs.

[Troubleatmill]

Common on then, I have been out all day, and come back to a game of hide and seek?

MIA

PV gone on hols to siberia big time, large Ridge pacific into alaska and ridge moving up to greenland from mid atlantic, with still enough energy eastern seaboard to undercut greenie ridge and create an insane block with deep deep cold to tap into from the PV to our east, and its gonna happen too!! :s! Its there on the charts so better shown than not Edited January 9, 2015 by Nicholas B

[Mucka]

Looking at 12z ensembles for Central England the 13th to 14 the like the coldest period of this zonal spell.

 

 

There is little to no sign of any sustained deep cold still with any blocking being mid latitude and fairly short lived but that said little sign of any sustained mild weather either.

The third week of Jan could have a brief colder spell but also a brief milder spell from any toppling  ridge. thereafter final week of Jan could turn colder with a better chance of blocking becoming established but mixed signals thus far.

[Captain Shortwave]

on phone so can't post charts. Gfsp shows core of the vortex moving to Siberia and lifting from Greenland with pressure rising here. All this towards the end of the run but it agrees with BA's thoughts this morning. This has been trending for a few days now on the gfs.

The issue with respect to any easing of low heights over Greenland is that it was predicted before to happen around the 18th, yet now another lobe decides to develop there, similar issue to last year where every run with that trend tended to never materialise inside the 7 day range.

PV centred back around Greenland after a brief tour of the rest of the Arctic circle.

 

So given the mobile regime we are trying to eek out the best from the colder incursions we get, certainly good for western area where showers will be prolific and more northern areas which may see a wintry mix in any frontal systems. Southern and eastern areas will not fare so well, though a little lucky we might get a northerly around the 18th-20th (certainly my only hope down here )

 

The GEM is probably the best solution with low heights stalling just to our east and the Atlantic ridge building into Scandinavia. A couple of GFS ensembles get close to this (one succeeds but a low resolution default ruins it)

So the pattern is Okay for some, though personally I would want better considering a lot of the musings before winter and to make my winter forecast look less bad

Come on ECM, give us a Scandi high tonight..... please....

Edited January 9, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[swfc]

Some rather silly posts on here today but hey ho.Very disturbed weather on the cards for the next 10 days or so with the usual areas at elevation getting some wintry weather.As usuall fi shows a build in pressure moving north via the atlantic but given the timescale slightly dubious.Theongoing story of "great potential"still being touted but barring the higher parts of northern England and obv Scotland nothing unusual unless we procrastinate over last winter

Edited January 9, 2015 by swfc

[SE Blizzards]

12Z ENS Northern England 2M temps..

 

 

They look pretty darn cold to me, and snow risk - 100% over the next day or two, haven't seen that very often, if at all over the last 2 years or so.

 

Also note the GFS op was very much on the mild side in FI, so i would discard that for now.

Edited January 9, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[bluearmy]

The fi split vortex solution - I did say that the Atlantic and euro height profile dictates what happens in nw Europe. I wouldn't necessarily be counting on a greeny ridge (Atlantic sourced). far too early to be getting on that wagon and it's been so elusive for almost two years now.

And anyone hoping for a scandi high within the next 10/14 days - just can't see it. Perhaps transient as ridging topples and throws one up. don't see it able to last within the mobility on show. Mind you, they often appear when least expected ......

Edited January 9, 2015 by bluearmy

[Mucka]

Some rather silly posts on here today but hey ho.Very disturbed weather on the cards for the next 10 days or so with the usual areas at elevation getting some wintry weather.As usuall fi shows a build in pressure moving north via the atlantic but given the timescale slightly dubious.Theongoing story of "great potential"still being touted but barring the higher parts of northern England and obv Scotland nothing unusual unless we procrastinate over last winter

 

Snow will get to low levels in N England through the next 10 days at times, not sure why people have so much difficulty with this?

[Eugene]

12Z ENS Northern England 2M temps..

 

 

They look pretty darn cold to me, and snow risk - 100% over the next day or two, haven't seen that very often, if at all over the last 2 years or so.

 

Also note the GFS op was very much on the mild side in FI, so i would discard that for now.

 

 

Yes looks pretty cold in the midlands too with many days below 5C and when you add the wind chill factor it's going to feel freezing, enjoyed this winter so far.