Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

[Frosty.]

but frosty the met office have been bang on this winter. Think until they come on board we should remain cautious of the charts.

I'm expecting the balance to change with cold zonality increasing, I've seen more than enough evidence in the model output to suggest the outlook will at last bring a risk of snow to all, not just the north.

[Barry12]

but frosty the met office have been bang on this winter. Think until they come on board we should remain cautious of the charts.

 

Terrier mate, it's zonal pal but its cold zonal with snow for many parts of the UK, we always remain cautious though mate.

[mcweather]

but frosty the met office have been bang on this winter. Think until they come on board we should remain cautious of the charts.

 

Hi Terrier. I can see where you're coming from with this. The met office are rightly cautious because they have a national reputation to protect and one that will be mercilessly torn apart by a meteorologically illiterate media.

 

However this caution also plays against them because in the years that I have been following the weather on the internet. There hasn't been a single cold or snowy outbreak that they have eventually mentioned in their medium term outlook that wasn't blindingly obvious to experienced model watchers on this forum and TWO well before it ever made it into print on the Met office website.

 

By the way this is not a dig at the met office for whom I have the utmost respect.

Edited January 8, 2015 by mcweather

[damianslaw]

I'm expecting the balance to change with cold zonality increasing, I've seen more than enough evidence in the model output to suggest the outlook will at last bring a risk of snow to all, not just the north.

 

The models are certainly suggesting a more buckled flow in the jet - and a more amplified flow, with low heights transferring into Scandi with a deeper longwave trough setting up here - and warmer uppers over eastern Europe and West Russia - which would enable thanks to warm air advection stronger heights eventually building to the north of scandi with the trough sinking southwards - slider low territory over eastern/NE Europe - it would tie in with the thoughts of a warmer interlude next couple of weeks over 'Europe' as a whole, not necessarily UK as we will sit more on the colder side of the jet, but then turn colder.

 

Its about trends, keep an eye on development to our NE over next 2 weeks equally to events to our NW .

[SE Blizzards]

Here you go. Something to cheer the Southern folk up!

 

A nice little Channel low...

 

 

Shame it's the Chinese model though...

[Polar Maritime]

Just a polite nudge to keep to Model Discussion, There are other threads for Meto Outlooks. 

 

Thanks, PM.

[TonyH]

Just done my evening chart resume and must say things have turned much more cold zonal next week, several deep lows crossing the UK with potential severe gales for even the south, along with snow chances at times, more especially north and west but I would not rule out a surprise snowfall anywhere really! Best charts so far this Winter for cold lovers and coming into a realistic timeframe, however concerning regards flooding and damaging winds..

Edited January 8, 2015 by TonyH

[Captain Shortwave]

Hi Terrier. I can see where you're coming from with this. The met office are rightly cautious because they have a national reputation to protect and one that will be mercilessly torn apart by a meteorologically illiterate media.

 

However this caution also plays against them because in the years that I have been following the weather on the internet. There hasn't been a single cold or snowy outbreak that they have eventually mentioned in their medium term outlook that wasn't blindingly obvious to experienced model watchers on this forum and TWO well before it ever made it into print on the Met office website.

 

By the way this is not a dig at the met office for whom I have the utmost respect.

The cold spell of January 2013 comes to mind of one time where the Metoffice did make an early call on the potential for cold weather during the middle to later part of the month. Of course we were watching an SSW take place but the models didn't show any cold weather setting up until quite late.

ECM ens out now

So we do see a Euro trough developing with the Azores high taken out of the picture. Trouble is that we also see quite a zonal picture over the states. Looks unsettled or very unsettled at times, and judging by the 850s quite chilly too. I will stick with the line through Birmingham though for snow risk, anywhere south looks unlikely, anywhere north will be in with a shout based on the current outputs. I do wonder whether in the 8-10 day range we could get a weak area of heights to develop near Scandinavia to help us out a bit 

Down here, my major concern will be the rather excessive rainfall totals from the start of next week.

[Carlrg]

Me cloggs are gunna be reet chafin wi all that ice about.

 

 

There's gunna be ructions in ere.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2015 by Carlrg

[winterof79]

Aswell as Bingo!, How much exitement can they take!

Very good I did larf out loud.Would have added smiley but damn phone is playing up.

Edited January 8, 2015 by winterof79

[TonyH]

If these charts play out we could be seeing feet of snow for northern hills.

[mushymanrob]

Je suis charlie

[Hotspur62]

I think the last 24-36 hrs a trend is appearing on both ECM and GFS,with the former having the AH much further West in the Mid Atlantic which may have positive ramifications for UK. Think next week could be the turning point for UK winter in that we will initially see PM air becoming the front runner in our weather which will give Northern parts of UK many snow chances but thereafter I think heights will rise to our NE with a Scandi High emerging as a strong possibility for early Feb. This is just my way of seeing things and using my past reading of maps of how we may end up.Could be wrong(hope not!!) but lets hope the Long Long wait for UK wide snow will soon be over   

[Troubleatmill]

Aswell as Bingo!, How much exitement can they take!

Edited January 8, 2015 by Nicholas B

[SE Blizzards]

Ecm 12Z ENS for de bilt.

 

 

 Some cold runs showing up there towards the end, and mean temp around a degree or so colder than the 0Z set.

A definite step in the right direction.

Edited January 8, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Daniel*]

Me cloggs are gunna be reet chafin wi all that ice about.

gens-20-1-384.png

There's gunna be ructions in ere.

^ would either be exceptionally wet or we will be buried. I concur the hills will get a right ol' pasting. Likely quite a few will miss out on the *snow* action; but why begrudge others. Not like it's going to have any detrimental affect to your life? from what I've seen in the past days is strengthening cold zonal in the reliable timeframe, futher out more amplification and something more sustained from a N/E direction may arise, currently this is a very good setup for the north, any disturbances (shallow lows) popping up on a southerly trajectory raises the risk for snow down S. By the end of January I'll say many will have seen some snow fall - even M4 southwards. Significant acc over Northern hills, aside from monday its looking thoroughly on the cold side rather than mild which should help bump the CET, down we have got some doing, to get to my conservative -0.7C value. You cannot deny this is best model output since 13' but it didn't take much.

@MarkyDub ...but obviously, winter 09-10 it ain't! Just chillier in broad scheme of things. Some wintry showers from W at times, even in S.

@MarkyDub yes. However, the colder phases will be noticeable next week, with latest EC down into lower single figures later for e.g. Reading

Courtesy Ian F promising it is a start for Southern counties...

Edited January 8, 2015 by Daniel*

[Mucka]

Most realistic post on here maybe for the south, no snow at all low levels south, just try to make the most of any dry windows timed for the day! they will be rare,

 

Realistic? Well 9/10ths perception is reality I guess but when was Birmingham in the South?

Tell you what I will go with Birmingham seeing snow over the next two weeks as opposed to having no chance but the weather will dictate what is real or not.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is a zonal horror story for anyone in Birmingham and southwards. Nothing in the way of snow on offer in the more reliable time frame.

 

 

 

GFS has the low further south which may result in wintry showers on the hills very briefly on the back edge of the evening rain.

Very little to get excited about for most of us.

 

 

To be fair ECM has plenty of subzero 850's on offer so its not going to feel especially mild from Tuesday

 

Edited January 8, 2015 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

Evening All-

 

Well it has seemed like an eternity, however in reality its only been 8 days of Jan with pretty dire model outlooks unless your a ski hut on the top of Glencoe....

 

Some light though is now appearing in the sodden tunnel, although if your in the south it is a long long tunnel to tread through-

 

however whats developing is what I would call 'Classic' UK synoptics whereby we have polar air engaging with atlantic air & along the boundary there can be snow. Infact, in the models I would hazard a guess that similarly to last year the Scottish highlands are going to get very deep snow- a pity then the resorts will be stormbound.

 

So, when I see these classic patterns that bring rain & snow I know straight away the South is out of the game, however IMBY aside its proper North West Midlands, Derby Peaks, Welsh hills & Pennines type snow events coming along, with the peppering of Wintry & snow showers effecting NI & the NW as well as Scotland.

 

The GFS shows a very high chance of these scenarios evolving - at 150 -

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010812/gfs-0-150.png?12

Quasi stationary low east of Iceland filtering in Sub -6c air across the NE atlantic engaging with shallow systems driven east by the jet. At 150 track dependent is a snow event in the making, more especially at elevation past 200 M- where the WBFL will be around or below 0c.

THicknesses around 1290 DAM will need elevation support

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/08/basis12/ukuk/th85/15011418_0812.gif

 

For those south of the midlands it will be no good hoping for an extreme southerly track, there will not be enough cold air in place from a NW flow to deliver snow. These are strictly North midlands North events.

 

Post this bout of excitement is where the cold momentum has moved from a snails pace to a Hamsters pace- with the models highlighting 'perhaps' enough sustained attenuation in the jet aligned NW SE that there is a potential for Pressure to build over Scandi -

 

The GEM, again highlights this ( however is very similar to the GFS 12z GFS ) with some sort of sliding trough disruption diving SE across the UK.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2015010812/gem-0-240.png?12

Look at the jet alignment - way down towards Spain- with the core of the low heights recurving west of Iceland. - clear signs of potential undercutting events.

 

But lets not get ahead of ourselves, some tedious stormy weather to endure over the next few days before the wintry weather sinks south east into the UK.

 

At last, perhaps a change to think about...

 

S

[bluearmy]

the extended eps more attuned towards a wider euro trough week 2.  the uk coming under a slowly deepening sinking mean trough. how that plays out depends on whether we see shortwaves running into the base of the trough or systems coming down from the nw around the azores as it throws weak ridges from time to time in tandem with another approaching system. it could be slider territory (sliders against the trough rather than a block), it could be 'runners'. it looks overall chilly to cold and judging by exeter's earlier update, its probably too far on the cold side.

[shaky]

the extended eps more attuned towards a wider euro trough week 2.  the uk coming under a slowly deepening sinking mean trough. how that plays out depends on whether we see shortwaves running into the base of the trough or systems coming down from the nw around the azores as it throws weak ridges from time to time in tandem with another approaching system. it could be slider territory (sliders against the trough rather than a block), it could be 'runners'. it looks overall chilly to cold and judging by exeter's earlier update, its probably too far on the cold side.

is this good or bad news!!!

[Cloud 10]

Well,i suppose its a pattern change of sorts over the next 8-10 days with the worst of those low height anomalies transferring towards Europe/Russia.(easier to see on anom.charts)

 

ECM now..   ECM day 10..

 

 

NOAA not happy with the output though,with low cofidence in 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

[bluearmy]

is this good or bad news!!!

 

good if you want more seasonal weather. 

[Geordiesnow]

Looks to me a more colder trend is on the cards with PM air mostly dominating, detail will be important and this could alter things but I think for some areas, the ECM/UKMO runs are certainly not bad runs at all. 

 

Convective wise, its most certainly is interesting and IF it set up perfectly, then there could be some surprises but a long way off in terms of nailing down the detail. 

 

Even as early as Saturday night, there could be some surprises on the card, the cold air is brief but its fairly potent considering its source. 

[Cloud 10]

GFS Australia now on Meteociel.

 

 

 

Looks fairly mild.