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Paul

Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

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Yes very interesting period coming up ,and the possibility of storms through next week with hopefully colder 850 temp hanging around a bit longer ,realy looking forward to charts lets hope they are kind to us ,nothing boring in our hobby ,and its early days still plenty of time for changes ,cheers . :yahoo:

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The best we can get out of this setup in the medium term for cold is something similar to boxing day, which brought snow to the midlands and North. If we can get a cold enough NW like the ECM shows on Sunday then this will be possible. Snow for lower levels in the south looks very unlikely in the next couple of weeks though.

 

ECU0-120.GIF?06-12

Edited by Barry95

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The best we can get out of this setup in the medium term for cold is something similar to boxing day, which brought snow to the midlands and North. If we can get a cold enough NW then this will be possible. Snow for lower levels in the south looks very unlikely in the next couple of weeks.

 

Sunday could bring blizzards for some if the ECM is correct...

 

ECU0-120.GIF?06-12

 

The cold front has cleared south by Saturday afternoon so no frontal snow Sunday. Best would be coastal showers (W+NW), assuming nothing develops in the flow:

 

post-14819-0-68572700-1420561529_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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The cold front has cleared south by Saturday afternoon so no frontal snow Sunday. Best would be coastal showers (W+NW), assuming nothing develops in the flow:

 

attachicon.gif150106_0000_126.png

 

We will see 8)

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GFS in far FI showing something similar to what Fergie mentions. Troughing getting into Scandi with decent ridging behind, nothing prolonged but a step in the right direction.

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That MetO updates tallies with what what we see in GFS ensembles (and ECM no doubt for those who have access)

A rather messy 3rd week of Jan synoptic as High pressure attempts to build behind passing troughs.

Although this phase is unlikely to bring any deep cold or HLB I still think there will be enough cold air around in the mix for a potential heavy snowfall somewhere.

Also as stated previously and also tying in with latest MetO thoughts, just because the first ridge fails does not mean true zonal conditions returning, the signal is very much for further attempts last week of Jan but any true blocking and persistent cold looks like it will have to wait for very end of Jan or start of Feb if it arrives at all.

 

The North will have a shot at snow this weekend though the output has been somewhat reducing this possibility over the last few runs with the low being forced further North by the all suffocating Azores high. We will have to see what turns up but I am not feeling as bullish as I was a couple of days ago about snow falling to low levels.

 

After that the next week will offer more marginal snow possibilities but if the cold air can dig far enough South there is the possibility of a widespread snowfall if the next low running along the base of the trough tracks far enough South. Between 13th and 15th could be wet and windy or there could be snow for some at some point.

 

There after a chance of wintry showers further North and the possibility of an Atlantic ridge. So fairly mobile but with possibility of marginal snow events and of course it could be very windy at times, so plenty to keep us on our toes.

Edited by Mucka

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GFS P shows fairly widespread shower activity overnight Saturday into Sunday for Scotland and northern England with bit and pieces for Wales. A lot depends on the flow in terms of the areas favoured but on this run it's pretty much due westerly, which certainly would aid shower penetration into the central belt:

114-779PUK.GIF?06-12 108-602PUK.GIF?06-12

 

The downside to this is that temperatures are likely to hold up above 0C for the vast majority of us, but as we saw in early December we can get lying snow down to lower levels in setups like these with a bit of intensity:

114-778PUK.GIF?06-12

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GFS op takes us towards the last week of January with an awful D16 chart: post-14819-0-18068800-1420562332_thumb.p

 

Obvious caveats but the PV remains the driver for the UK and it is really hard to see anything worthwhile cold wise developing before Feb. We have the main weather pattern as three possible storms in that time, D3, D9 and D14 (downgraded this run). Otherwise a brief toppler around D10-12.

 

It is very average January fare.

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A bit of clarity re EC Monthly prognosis and expectations further ahead. The broad scheme of things sees a shift in balance re lows to NW becoming more aligned further away to the north from the UK, ultimately shifting steadily eastwards so that by turn of month they sit with centre of gravity over Scandinavia. High pressure remains strong to the south throughout the sequence (Matt Hugo's helpful tweet showed the similar GFS prognosis, as broad replica). What we ultimately get are emerging signs of a more amplified pattern, steering deeper cyclonicity further to our north and an increasing resultant likelihood of northerly/colder incursions (these characterised in latest UKMO assessment as "no signs of any exceptional weather in this context", re any severity of colder weather later in the period). So, a gradual change in pattern and resultant fortunes (probably welcome for those preferring something chillier) remains the *likely* outcome at this still rather speculative juncture. The previous post-Mid Jan GFS solutions of a few runs back, albeit impressive in continuity, were regarded with great suspicion as likely artefacts of MJO being over-cooked (as some here also suspected) and discounted, versus a better general agreement on the route forward between EC and UKMO modelling.

Many thanks for your update Ian.The GEFS I quoted this morning were moving towards that scenario in my opinion.Certainly looking seasonal as we move further in to the month.Of course your"chillier being the likely option" will still not satisfy allâ„

Edited by winterof79

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My earlier post re the NH profile for the back end of jan - strangely, the end of the para fits those broad ideas.

Guess it shouldnt be too much of a shock considering that i havent just dreamed up the profile but it fits a general nwp trend

Whether it survives more than a few more runs is anyone's guess.

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Certainly a mobile Atlantic pattern now developing.

A look at the day 5 charts show a very steep pressure gradient between the Azores high and the lows across the north,

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015010612/UN120-21.GIF?06-17

A very strong jet flow going right into the east of Europe/W.Russia by then.

Note the very cold 850hPa temps over E.Canada which is fast becoming the favoured Winter home of the bulk of the PV.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015010612/gfsnh-1-120.png?12?12

Currently the jet looks a little further north than last year so parts of Scotland and N. Ireland are most at risk for the worst of the gales and stormy conditions,although many areas should expect some strong winds at times.

A stormy period to come then with frequent warnings likely over the next week or so.

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GFS 12z ensemble temps Central England

 

graphe6_1000_251_89___.gif

 

From mid month cool and unsettled but likely less mobile than run up to mid month period.

Also parallel looks to have little support in FI

Edited by Mucka

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Number 4 is a beauty :)

gensnh-4-0-288.png

 

GFS 12z ensemble temps Central England

 

graphe6_1000_251_89___.gif

 

From mid month cool and unsettled but likely less mobile than run up to mid month period.

Also parallel looks to have little support in FI

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Number 4 is a beauty :)

gensnh-4-0-288.png

..........temp contrasts for next weeks brewing storm to end all mild zonality!?! (bottom left)

gfs-6-156.png?12

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ECM 168 could be wintry in the North, blizzards over high ground.

 

ECH1-168.GIF?06-0ECH0-168.GIF?06-0

 

I wonder what the MetO currently thinks of any wintry prospects for Northern England in the run up to mid month?

Edited by Mucka

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Again the GEM and ECM are not interested in developing a deep low around day 9

ECM1-216.GIF?06-0

GEM

gem-0-216.png?12

To be honest they don't seem keen on any pattern change whatsoever, very much unsettled and westerly driven.

Northern hemisphere view

ECH1-216.GIF?06-0

Polar vortex pretty much stuck to our north/north west.

Edited by Captain shortwave

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Hi there!!

 

I know it might be off topic but... could you explain why?? 

 

would be good for us newbies :)

 

It was just general comment that a deep depression of 940mb is not good news both regards wind and precipitation. I wasn't being more specific because I've no doubt this will have changed by the runs tomorrow.

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