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Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

You sound like my ex

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True but after mid February, it becomes somewhat more difficult to get a proper cold spell.  Obviously it can happen, look at March 2013 as an extreme example, but that was exceptional and there are no signs of anything like that occurring at the moment.

Your quite right , just saying things can change very quickly and quite often do!

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How did we cope before the net for weather ... Wasn't it nice to wake up to see a thick layer of snow without hunting for it.. Sometimes to much info is damaging, upsetting and damn well dissapointing :(

I remember as a kid getting excited seeing a snow symbol on the tv map, then watching out the window and more often than not just be surprised in the morning.

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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18z run of the UKMO meso model shows the precip grinding to a halt across NW England, W Midlands, SW England as far as it goes out at t+36/06z Weds.

 

18z GFS alot more progressive with pushing the rain/sleet/snow east to the east coast early Weds.

 

Alot of uncertainty with precip movement at short range, but kind of expected when we are dealing with trough disruption.

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18z run of the UKMO meso model shows the precip grinding to a halt across NW England, W Midlands, SW England as far as it goes out at t+36/06z Weds.

 

18z GFS alot more progressive with pushing the rain/sleet/snow east to the east coast early Weds.

 

Alot of uncertainty with precip movement at short range, but kind of expected when we are dealing with trough disruption.

What about intensity of the precip. Is that likely to change much?
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The reason why I wouldn't get to down about Ian's comments is because we always use/see the term FI myself included, I never pay too much attention to anything t144+ ...why would I when even t72 can swap and change?

The meto can only give guidance with the data they have and I'm sure they would agree that anything 14 days+ is pushing the limits somewhat.

KEEP THE FAITH !!!

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This thread is getting as bad as the MOD thread for hysterics at every model run and forecast. For the love of all that is holy why are people getting upset at forecasts a month away when we all know they are vague and will almost definately change.

It makes this thread hard to read.

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EURO4 18z

Cut off low scenario is looking odds on optimum time for snowfall as winds veer more 'continental'

post-19153-0-41159600-1421711838.jpg

Also dew points are lower than expected across Ireland keep the faith! :clap:

post-19153-0-49304300-1421712748_thumb.j

Edited by Daniel*
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What about intensity of the precip. Is that likely to change much?

 

Don't have a great deal of faith in precip charts with regards to spot intensities, nowcasting will be the best guide.

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You just stirred up my childhood memories of looking for snow on teletext.

Waiting for the pages to flick over, then pressing the hold button to keep it on the screen.

It was much easier then not knowing when the snow and cold was coming, and even better when the forecast was for rain, but snow fell instead!

Memories also of seeing what all the met stations were reporting. Ceefax. 

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EURO4 18z

Cut off low scenario is looking odds on optimum time for snowfall as winds veer more 'continental'

attachicon.gifimage.jpgattachicon.gifimage.jpg

Also dew points are lower than expected across Ireland keep the faith! :clap:

Like the look of that chart for 12pm Weds. Has heavy precipitation a few miles wide over my back yard lol... Not expecting much here, might see some snow falling but looks rather marginal, will there be priced. low expectations= surprises would be welcome. 

Edited by Mark N
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How did we cope before the net for weather ... Wasn't it nice to wake up to see a thick layer of snow without hunting for it.. Sometimes to much info is damaging, upsetting and damn well dissapointing :(

I do so agree. I remember my brother and sisters running into my room to say, "It's snowed!" Then we'd wolf down our breakfast go up to the loft to get the sledge and play all day.

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From Ian Fergusson- Update on Tues night into Weds, snow potential for us lot!

 

FergieWeather-

Yes indeed. Plus differences between Euro4 and Euro4 Parallel; plus now 18z UKMO-GM. However, Tues night reliably the period with greatest chance of some lower-level snow in parts of south (and Weds AM for SE: UKMO cite 40% probability e.g. Heathrow/Gatwick, but low (30%) likelihood troublesome... Chilterns perhaps at greater chance, especially with 18z GM widening the PPN envelope in SE through colder air). However, forecast remains under constant refinement and the broad theme (snow *mostly* Midlands northwards but some in south) is now where the nitty-gritty detail is being sought-out. Tricky one.

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How did we cope before the net for weather ... Wasn't it nice to wake up to see a thick layer of snow without hunting for it.. Sometimes to much info is damaging, upsetting and damn well dissapointing :(

We all coped... and there were surprises - i agree it was fun

 

I like surprises and there's still room for that despite all the technology available esp regarding snow - There's a fine line between cold drizzle and beautiful flakes falling from the sky and that's the magic.  It's just that some folk believe they can predict it in their back yards or expect the Met folk to do it for us - no hope - it's like predicting a lightning strike.

 

'Its going to be cold, maybe wet, maybe both with some frost at night but the wind is from the north-ish'

 

There's plenty more surprises despite the tech (-:

Edited by Pixel
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Thomaz shafanaker just pointed out for potential snow in the southeast on weds and they were keeping a close eye on it. He is my favourite forecaster anyway ha

Yeah he's a definite cold ramper

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From Ian Fergusson- Update on Tues night into Weds, snow potential for us lot!

FergieWeather-

Yes indeed. Plus differences between Euro4 and Euro4 Parallel; plus now 18z UKMO-GM. However, Tues night reliably the period with greatest chance of some lower-level snow in parts of south (and Weds AM for SE: UKMO cite 40% probability e.g. Heathrow/Gatwick, but low (30%) likelihood troublesome... Chilterns perhaps at greater chance, especially with 18z GM widening the PPN envelope in SE through colder air). However, forecast remains under constant refinement and the broad theme (snow *mostly* Midlands northwards but some in south) is now where the nitty-gritty detail is being sought-out. Tricky one.

Was just going to post the exact passage, best confirmation yet "hopefully" we'll seem some snow before this cold spell is out. Going by Ian might be surprises down south, which is great news. As I've aged years being on this forum - it'll be nice to get something at the very least. I also agree with the above wasnt it magical to wake up as little kid to snow, back then it so was so much more easier. But I appreciate snow more & realize what a mammoth effort is required.

Edited by Daniel*
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I'm waiting to see if those showers come this way, may see some flakes shortly with my torch if they do, won't wait to long though. Not sure they will make it this far East, looks like they are moving mostly due north. Not really sure the front Tuesday night/Wednesday will be anything other than rain here on the coast.

Edited by alexisj9
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We all coped... and there were surprises - i agree it was fun

 

I like surprises and there's still room for that despite all the technology available esp regarding snow - There's a fine line between cold drizzle and beautiful flakes falling from the sky and that's the magic.  It's just that some folk believe they can predict it in their back yards or expect the Met folk to do it for us - no hope - it's like predicting a lightning strike.

 

'Its going to be cold, maybe wet, maybe both with some frost at night but the wind is from the north-ish'

 

There's plenty more surprises

despite the tech (-:

There was just something so magical about the unknown and all you would hear from the old gen was snows on its way I can feel it in my bones .. And somehow the uk still carried on not like now a few flakes and london is in melt down
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I do so agree. I remember my brother and sisters running into my room to say, "It's snowed!" Then we'd wolf down our breakfast go up to the loft to get the sledge and play all day.

Simple fun that's what life should be like :) ï¸snow , sledge and wrapped up warm that's all we needed

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