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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
  • Weather Preferences: love snow and frosty mornings
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,

    off to hide under 2 duvets and a blanket, with 2 hot water bottles,still clear skies here, lots of stars, i can see, i would study them more, if it wasn't so cold, being in the countryside, its always colder here, Lets hope this snow we all deserve comes this week, after all, we deserve it

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    Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

    The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

    You sound like my ex

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    -0.2 here now, shocking as last night at the same time we were looking at 2.8. A 3 degree drop between two days is shocking

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    Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

    Also the DP is around -.6 now..

     

    If only the PPN was around!

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    I'm not fussy, I will bank this now and this will do me for the Winter  :rofl:

     

    72-779UK.GIF?18-18

     

    http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015011818/72-779UK.GIF?18-18

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    That'll do me :whistling:

    post-19153-0-15744200-1421623566_thumb.j

    If you miss out on the 'frontal' side such as places like Kent, Essex those locations too far east to benefit, you'll be reaping it in if this cut off low verified, heavy snowfall, for Southeast England zilch marginality SE'ly winds ensuring we get a cold continental influence, with 850s sub -6C we'll be good to go.

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    That'll do me :whistling:

    attachicon.gifimage.jpg

    If you miss out on the 'frontal' side such as places like Kent, Essex those locations too far east to benefit, you'll be reaping it in if this cut off low verified, heavy snowfall, for southeast england zilch marginality SE'ly winds ensuring we get a cold continental influence. :cold:

     

    I'm skeptical.. East Anglia might do okay, at least South-East coastal areas of East Anglia but the wind flow for the South-East looks rather dry, barring frontal systems wrapped around the low pressure system

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    So for any night owls.. on a scale of 1 to 10 how happy are you about tonight's outputs for this week ahead in terms of snow potential?

     

    Me ... 7/10

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border

    So for any night owls.. on a scale of 1 to 10 how happy are you about tonight's outputs for this week ahead in terms of snow potential?

     

    Me ... 7/10

     

    3/10

     

    The precipitation away from the 'sweet spot', as steve would call it, would be minimal, a couple of CM's maybe...

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Yep, some better charts from 18z GFS for snow potential on Weds to sleep on tonight. Lets hope they don't downgrade to a damp squib again!

     

    Re snow potential from the 'slider lows' generally this week away from favoured northern areas of N Ireland, Scotland, N England and hills of Wales - I think alot will depend on

     

    1. How the stagnating cold airmass recovers temp-wise during daytime tomorrow and Tuesday. Sub-zero temps over the next few nights under clear spells, a ridge of high pressure building in on Monday combined with areas of cloud from decaying fronts trapping cold air at the surface.Models maybe over-estimating daytime temps over next few days.

     

    2. Models will be factoring in some mixing as the frontal system arrives with strengthening flow to increase surface temps. But if they do not have the degree of accuracy yet with the angle of approach of the fronts nor development of mesoscale lows that develop along the front that may change the wind direction (i.e. backing the flow), the direction of flow or slack/calm conditions. This can make a big difference to some areas being on the  wrong side of marginal for snow (onshore milder flow from S or SW) or right side of marginal (calm conditions or flow from a cold source).

     

    3. If it's still a marginal knife-edge snow/rain situation - will the precip be heavy enough to allow evaporative cooling to lower the snow level?

     

    Ultimately, nowcasting will be the best way of determining which side of marginal certain areas will be for snow/rain

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    under a duvet with hat and cloves, :cold:

    Shocking that you still have no heating :shok: lucky that you are young and not elderly. I find that Zivania keeps you warm, although it does set fire to your insides when you drink it. :vava:  -1c here and clear. No snow on the horizon this week, or is there? :unknw: Saw the weather and still don't know! :nonono:

    Edited by lassie23
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I'm skeptical.. East Anglia might do okay, at least South-East coastal areas of East Anglia but the wind flow for the South-East looks rather dry, barring frontal systems wrapped around the low pressure system

    Are you looking at the same charts at me?

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    3/10

     

    The precipitation away from the 'sweet spot', as steve would call it, would be minimal, a couple of CM's maybe...

    You are a hard man to please Steve lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

    Looking at Steve M's updated chart and taking it absolutely literally means my location is just outside snow zone, sweet spot AND kink due to triple point.

    Beat that.

    In fact mixing zone not a million miles away, :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    So for any night owls.. on a scale of 1 to 10 how happy are you about tonight's outputs for this week ahead in terms of snow potential?

     

    Me ... 7/10

    8.5/10 tonight. Prob be 5/10 in morning lol
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    So BBC still not confident?

    post-10303-0-41734600-1421625656_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Steve Murr's updated graphic:

    Mixing zone shunted S and W - all in all a huge upgrade on the 12Z. Therefore 10/10.

    post-19153-0-90253000-1421625954_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL

    One thing is for sure, when we are all searching days in advanced for the weather, it really does make the weeks fly past......and none of us are getting any younger  :rofl:  :nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

    Steve Murr's updated graphic:

    Mixing zone shunted S and W - all in all a huge upgrade on the 12Z. Therefore 10/10.

    attachicon.gifimage.jpg

     

    And the models will probably look different by the morning!  :laugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl

    I seem to be missing out on Steve's new graphic - just about in the mixing zone though

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    And the models will probably look different by the morning!  :laugh:

    We know just enjoying the moment :laugh: could be upgrades too ;-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex

    Whats a mixing zone cause im in it , whatever it is sounds good lol :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

    Whats a mixing zone cause im in it , whatever it is sounds good lol :-)

     

    When snow, rain and sleet all mixes due to slightly higher temps.

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Are you looking at the same charts at me?

    Yes. Couple of things wrong in regards to heavy snow showers as the low pulls away (taking current tracking, this obviously will change and could become more favourable.

     

    The wind flow isn't ideal - We'd need a slight ENE element to the wind to allow a longer fetch over the ocean to begin developing shower clouds. Winds are more E and at times SE which means the fetch is much shorter, light showers seem more likely.

     

    post-7073-0-14339600-1421627554_thumb.gi

     

    Problem 2. The temperature contrast between 850hPa and the Sea Surface isn't great enough. Ideally you'd want something of a 15c difference between the two for good convection. With -2c over much of the area the short fetched wind will be coming from and SST at around 8c, that's only a 10c difference give or take a degree.

     

    post-7073-0-66105400-1421627554_thumb.gi

     

    post-7073-0-60933000-1421627555_thumb.pn

     

    Problem 3. Temperatures just aren't cold enough at that time, slightly milder air gets into the surface mix meaning rain would be more likely from any showers that do actually develop.

     

    post-7073-0-15620000-1421627555_thumb.gi

     

    Plenty of time for this to change - But at the moment, the models are not supportive of snow showers coming in from the East.

    Whats a mixing zone cause im in it , whatever it is sounds good lol :-)

     

    Rain/Sleet...

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