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Captain Shortwave

Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

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Snow showers stretching SW/NE across Cambridgeshire into Norfolk and moving east as we speak. Another lot pushing east along the M4 with a final band running along the south coast (this a mix of ran, sleet and snow according to radar).

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Quite a few places, light snow showers reports towards the west of London on #uksnow map.

The air is colder towards the east which always raises the bar, Good-luck folks.

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forget later this week what about today[/quote

Totally agree, mind we normally do well. Are you down in town or up on one of the hills. It makes a surprising difference.

Kt

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Just started snowing here, large flakes moderate getting heavy and settling on all surfaces 0.5c

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forget later this week what about today[/quote

Totally agree, mind we normally do well. Are you down in town or up on one of the hills. It makes a surprising difference.

Kt

im up in the Totteridge area and yeah normally do well the sky is quite white

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W COUNTRY 0820 Snow reaching low levels currently as this trough moves east. Some accumulations even at lower levels.

post-19153-0-89292500-1421485026_thumb.j

I could be a artist, do not take red lines too seriously however that is the general area I see.

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As posted by fergie in model forum >> sorry but had to take a peak.. and got out alive!! << which just shows what a bloody mess it is,, and also could somebody explain some of this in english!!  would be somewhat helpful :pardon:

 

Seeing as it's nice and early in the day, perhaps we can see the remainder of Saturday through without the hysterics expressed on the forum yesterday?
Critical points of note are simple:
1. Amplified upper pattern remains favourable for (two) trough disruption(s) early-mid next week
2. Scope of how and where these may occur will NOT be correctly resolved in ANY model at this lead time
3. Ergo, any over-analysis is pointless at this lead time given great uncertainty and variance/volatility in model handling
4. Likely erratic and eventually weakening E'ward progress of occlusion into cold air Tues means uncertainty on areal spread of snow: GFS PPN phase charts to be viewed with due caution.
5. Risk of rain onto frozen surfaces even where no snow. Varied wintry hazards look inevitable but no compelling evidence for a 'nationwide snow event' in strict defined sense. However, threat of disruptive snow for some areas (starting in parts of NI initially under frontal mass ascent; then W Scotland and Wales) is quite obvious, although no regional detail is reliable for now.
6. The potential for some easterly flow later into the week could not be *wholly* discounted yesterday (despite some claiming so); nor again in this morning's output, albeit still considered a lower probability outcome (ca. 40% support for some easterly component in 00z MOGREPS-G)
7. Attempt to resume westerly mobility later in the week (Weds-Thurs, powered by strong jet) may threaten further snow with second trough disruption. Importantly, the transition/timing and evolution of this switch will inevitably be messy and poorly resolved in all models currently.
8. Further swings in output are a given, as models struggle with upstream driving developments in W Atlantic/US.
9. Thus, can we desist from further forum freak-outs today...! :-)

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Snow now into the west of the region check twitter snow map brilliant tool!!

Also as I thought the front is pepping up towards us..

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Suns out here but clouds looking darker over the back,frosty here too, -2 at the moment,i had a power cut, just got turned on, so the one electric heater i left on all night, was a waste of time, blinking freezing in here,having trouble typing as my hands are so cold  :cold: , im waiting for my snow patiently 

Edited by Jo S

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Is the precipitation anywhere near us yet

Flurries here on and off for last hour - very slight covering :)

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@Nanu

Pretty much anything after Monday should be treated with great uncertainty at the moment. The first front which pushes in on Tuesday might lose it precipitation as the trough disrupts and weakens over the UK. Beyond that the current form trend is for low pressure to sink through the UK into Europe midweek with another low following a similar track at the end of the week and into next weekend.

ECM ens show this nicely.

EDM1-72.GIF?17-12

EDM1-120.GIF?17-12

EDM1-168.GIF?17-12

Overall the pattern is cold with the potential for frontal snow, also the risk of rain falling on frozen surfaces causing black ice which is another potential hazard.

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As posted by fergie in model forum >> sorry but had to take a peak.. and got out alive!! << which just shows what a bloody mess it is,, and also could somebody explain some of this in english!!  would be somewhat helpful :pardon:

 

 

Seeing as it's nice and early in the day, perhaps we can see the remainder of Saturday through without the hysterics expressed on the forum yesterday?

Critical points of note are simple:

1. Amplified upper pattern remains favourable for (two) trough disruption(s) early-mid next week

2. Scope of how and where these may occur will NOT be correctly resolved in ANY model at this lead time

3. Ergo, any over-analysis is pointless at this lead time given great uncertainty and variance/volatility in model handling

4. Likely erratic and eventually weakening E'ward progress of occlusion into cold air Tues means uncertainty on areal spread of snow: GFS PPN phase charts to be viewed with due caution.

5. Risk of rain onto frozen surfaces even where no snow. Varied wintry hazards look inevitable but no compelling evidence for a 'nationwide snow event' in strict defined sense. However, threat of disruptive snow for some areas (starting in parts of NI initially under frontal mass ascent; then W Scotland and Wales) is quite obvious, although no regional detail is reliable for now.

6. The potential for some easterly flow later into the week could not be *wholly* discounted yesterday (despite some claiming so); nor again in this morning's output, albeit still considered a lower probability outcome (ca. 40% support for some easterly component in 00z MOGREPS-G)

7. Attempt to resume westerly mobility later in the week (Weds-Thurs, powered by strong jet) may threaten further snow with second trough disruption. Importantly, the transition/timing and evolution of this switch will inevitably be messy and poorly resolved in all models currently.

8. Further swings in output are a given, as models struggle with upstream driving developments in W Atlantic/US.

9. Thus, can we desist from further forum freak-outs today...! :-)

 

All I take from this is that once again Scotland,Wales,N.Irland are in for a pasting.. Wot about us snow starved SOUTH EASTERNERS..??????? Any chance of us getting even a few centimetres..

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The showers to the west of the region, are they falling as snow ? Will they continue to fall as snow ?

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All I take from this is that once again Scotland,Wales,N.Irland are in for a pasting.. Wot about us snow starved SOUTH EASTERNERS..??????? Any chance of us getting even a few centimetres..

 

Some snow on the ground here so I would suggest keeping looking out of your window

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Just had about 90 seconds of snow, 1cm flakes, lying on the cold ground, and now it's stopped.

 

Heavy frost last night, min -3.9C, temp now 0.9C.  Sky grey after a beautiful pink sunrise.

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@Nanu

Pretty much anything after Monday should be treated with great uncertainty at the moment. The first front which pushes in on Tuesday might lose it precipitation as the trough disrupts and weakens over the UK. Beyond that the current form trend is for low pressure to sink through the UK into Europe midweek with another low following a similar track at the end of the week and into next weekend.

ECM ens show this nicely.

EDM1-72.GIF?17-12

EDM1-120.GIF?17-12

EDM1-168.GIF?17-12

Overall the pattern is cold with the potential for frontal snow, also the risk of rain falling on frozen surfaces causing black ice which is another potential hazard.

Thanks for that mr captain!! so frontal looses, we stay in cold, couple of sliders happen 50/50 snow or rain,, black ice.. have not seen black ice down here since i was in school,, and that was fun seeing the teachers on there backsides!!

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Blue skies , very frosty, temp -1.4 at moment .....

 

Any snow this winter would be a treat for my kids be in 1 or 20 cm... (after last YEAR}

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That flurry just after 07:00 this morning was short lived, nothing since has fallen, 0.3oC now but still frosty out.

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All I take from this is that once again Scotland,Wales,N.Irland are in for a pasting.. Wot about us snow starved SOUTH EASTERNERS..??????? Any chance of us getting even a few centimetres..

I think with our position we would be lucky to see a few millimetres let alone centimetres!!, but who knows as the outlook is very "up in the air" and even the pros are  having problems , best keep hoping and looking out of the window 

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Snowing heavily here in north Nortolk. Huge flakes and settling. Temp 0C dew point -2C.

 

Just absolutely stunning.

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Some snow on the ground here so I would suggest keeping looking out of your window

Quite a few miles between North Oxfordshire and East Kent me thinks... Enjoy though...

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