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No point looking beyond about Monday at the moment given how the models have chopped and changed so much. But then before this point we could all have some snow by then :)

 

Matt, might I suggest you repeat that a few hundred times in the MOD thread today to stop the nonsense in there? :rofl:   As a result of checking through the last 3-4 pages over there, my "Ignore" list has nearly doubled in length (the schadenfreude-loving mildies who search for a sign of the Atlantic powering through at T1,000,000 were in that list already).  I aim to have all the drama queens in that list by this autumn so I can enjoy the MOD thread next winter, reading only those posters, yourself included, who know what they're on about and who actually take a balanced viewpoint.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheforecaster
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Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

You sound like my ex

Posted Images

Oh dear, those rain warnings do not look promising. Hopefully we will get a 'nowcast' flash update when it actually arrives.

I would say a good % of warnings before any potential snow event contains the words " rain " and turn to " sleet or snow ".

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What I mean by that is this...

w14215716001606.gif

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/6h/GB/w14215716001606.gif

 

To me that's switched to a projected NW/N a lot quicker than most the forecast animation maps show, run it from 03:00hrs on Sunday till Midnight, notice the forecast SW goes sooner than midday/afternoon, turning by 06:00am

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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indeed, most of EA stays dry on Sunday under latest meto warnings. Unless they subsequently add a further warning today then I imagine the pros have concurred with the models and turned away from a potential snow event for the Anglian counties.

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I'll admit I haven't a clue what's going on - Fergie's warning yesterday had me actually quite optimistic and for some reason my MetO app is still saying light snow for me from 1800 Sunday until 0600 Monday but this doesn't really tally with the MOD thread. I'm nowhere near as knowledgeable as most on here so I'm completely reliant on others and at the moment I guess it's not looking good.

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I'd imagine, that if anything were to happen, (MetO warnings), for snow, then it will occur tomorrow.

Still alot can change, so seeing as it's still only Friday, no point getting hung up about what's going to happen next week, when we can't nail down the forcast yet for 48 hours time. 

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What I mean by that is this...

w14215716001606.gif

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/6h/GB/w14215716001606.gif

 

To me that's switched to a projected NW/N a lot quicker than most the forecast animation maps show, run it from 03:00hrs on Sunday till Midnight, notice the forecast SW goes sooner than midday/afternoon, turning by 06:00am

If we do see a northerly wind develop whilst the rain is over us, there is every chance that the dew points will drop low enough to allow the rain to turn to snow. Evaporative cooling will also come into play under light winds.

Whether this will happen or not, no idea whatsoever.

Sums up the model output for next week too. Not a clue of how things will pan out.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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I'd imagine, that if anything were to happen, (MetO warnings), for snow, then it will occur tomorrow.

Still alot can change, so seeing as it's still only Friday, no point getting hung up about what's going to happen next week, when we can't nail down the forcast yet for 48 hours time.

I m totally agree with you , the tomorrow gfs 0z will be fondamental!

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I for one love it more as it is with not a clue with what is going on... 

 

I remember once I was in Reading about 45 miles from home (Further West) and on the train leaving it was snowing where I live.. As we got closer to Reading the snow was present but only a couple of CMs.

 

Anyway after about 2-3 hours of shopping I checked the forecast.. RED WARNING RIGHT OVER MY HOUSE! We got a phone call from the Mrs dad to say over a foot had fallen... 

 

It shows that the smallest differences make a massive change.. And these changes can occur +1hr to the event.. So.. Sit tight, it will snow this winter I promise you BUT we will have to wait for it. 

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Basically in a nut shell there will be a shallow low pressure over Biscay with a plume of Moisture moving North through NW France into the South & SE, as this does so its battling against cold surface air feeding down from the North, eventually the cold air wins - but its how much the cold undercuts the front in terms of if anywhere sees snow.

 

because the system from the south is so shallow evaporational cooling will be a factor as will precipitation intensity.  I would say in this scenario the usual suspects do well-

which is the higher parts of Hertfordshire & Essex-  this of course depends on how far North the PPN is....

 

 

Its worth adding that its expected to be ALL rain to start with- the euro 4 at T48 ( 06z Sunday morning ) shows a band of rain arriving in the SE, with the first signs of sleet in the extreme NW of the PPN ( Oxfordshire )

 

looking at the models the PPN North west of London fades away but more specifically the ECM & JMA has the Biscay low sliding ENE across towards

Holland-

as a result the Front becomes stationary over London & Kent, at the same time the uppers go from -4c to -6c, but more importantly the 850 thickness get to 1290 - which is the key marker.

Sun eve up to 06am Monday is the KEY timeline. with midnight the optimum time,

 

The ECM timelines - ( uppers below )

 

12pm Sun

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/150116_0000_60.png

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/150116_0000_60.png         -6C line still into the SE midlands -  spread -5c to 3c into the SE of kent.

 

6pm Sun

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/150116_0000_66.png

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/150116_0000_66.png         -6c line crosses the Thames @ 6pm - so transition time now-

 

Midnight 00z

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/150116_0000_72.png   look at the front pep up over SE London & kent maybe East sussex

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_hitaspa/150116_0000_72.png        -6c line stationary

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015011600/ECU1-72.GIF?16-12  500Mb pattern

 

06z mon- beginning to fade

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkomuspa/150116_0000_78.png    t

 

By -6z Monday the ECM has straddled the -6c line across SE London, but all the while the 850 thicknesses will be reducing.

So this is a rain to snow event -

 

We should all see some snow falling - its whether the band holds up & intensity for accumulations- best case scenario from this is probably 5CM over Hills.

S

In terms of sustaining the COLD & possible snow we are best situated in the SE, the UKMO is the model to follow.... ( plus Euro4 at short notice)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=21&ech=6&archive=0&pays=royaume-uni

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=nlnl&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

 

Euro4 best image shot is the Benelux one...above

T48 shows the start

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/16/basis06/nlnl/prty/15011806_1606.gif

Edited by Steve Murr
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If I might take the liberty of quoting Tamara on the MOD thread (I think her advice is brilliant):

 

 

 

Or perhaps it means instead that some 'apparent' absentees are sitting back and looking at a very much bigger picture than simply building cyber snowmen to get knocked down, re-built, and then knocked down again in their back gardens on a never ending roundabout of neurotic armchair frame by frame dissection of intra 4 X day/night NWP output?

 

Vicissitude revisited yet again. Most familiar.

 

Interminable detailed analysis pouring over every chart within the context of what is a chaotic, messy cold trough disruption pattern - that has continuously moving marginal boundaries, from one locality to another, from one day to the next, and from this weekend and through much of next week, is completely and utterly pointless and has no reward other than perfectly avoidable mental exhaustion.

 

Equally, posting selective mean charts from hand picked model charts within the context of what is evolving, totally skews and dilutes out what is going on right now within the NH pattern.

 

For the first time this season we are looking at a progressive stagnant cold pool of air over Europe and the UK and a consistent trend to keep trough disruption into the continental heartlands. Troughs heading SE into this cold air mean snowfalls cropping up here, there, and everywhere.

 

These cannot be forecasted most accurately till at least 24 hours before. Sometimes the biggest surprises and changes occur at t0 - t6.  I believe that many will see these surprises in the day to come.

 

Best wait till something falls out the sky first is my advice rather than building virtual hide and seek snowmen that are often days away.

 

The macro pattern is changing quite radically from what we have seen so far this winter

 

For the first time this season, heights to the NE stand a reasonable chance of becoming a greater influence. Whatever happens ultimately, talk of deceased easterlies is premature.

 

For detailed reasons I gave yesterday, do not make assumptions based on any face value suggestions of a return to a sustained flat westerly pattern. The italics are most relevant.

 

The foolhardiness of irrational and futile reactions every six hours or so is as poignant right now as it usually is anyway, whatever the prospective weather type.

 

If this absurd dysfunction can't be self controlled, best to find something in the real world of greater importance that justifies worrying about :)

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May have already been discussed but on Beeb weather this morning Carol Kirkwood showed a large band of snow on Sunday. Covering much of this area. (The threads catchment area).

 

 

Updated on http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

they have updated it but still shows great potential. (Although too far out to polish the sled just yet)

 

 

(I can't hear the commentary as was at work so just watching the graphics. (From an IMBY point of view there was even a little snow for Norfolk on Saturday :)  )   

 

I wonder if we'll had Westisbest on this thread now he's in North Norfolk?

Edited by Mr.Plow
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I am going to come out of hibernation and post only in this thread - the MOD thread is a bit doolally atm.

 

Personally, I am excited about the potential on Sunday. With 48 hours to go this could easily upgrade and have the rain to snow transition start earlier in the evening / afternoon.

 

I have seen similar events before, rain all afternoon and then snow overnight leaving 4 - 6". Not saying we will get that amount but looking at it the things that interest me are:

 

1. Precipitation intensity - the heavier the better as it will encourage evaporative cooling.

2. Thicknesses becoming lower from the North throughout the event.

3. Some reasonably good 850 hpa temps (-4c to -6c). 

 

Evaporative cooling can lead to snow at modest 850 temps of -2c (which I have seen). The shallowness of the feature is also a major plus!

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Certainly looks like somewhere south/south east could get into the mix for Sunday. pretty sure my location in Cambridgeshire will be way too far North, but worth remembering how these kind of events crop up at short notice once you get some cold in place. Meto still going with heavy snow for my location on Sunday but fully expecting it to revert to cloud with the old wee flurry, while further S/SE the potential will probably increase.

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Hi Steve, not that I am personally expecting any snow here, but do we want this band to shift further south or north to increase the chance of snow? Or does it not make a difference?

 

Hi well basically look at it like this

 

Initially when its ALL rain the band may extend 100 Miles from the SE coast all the way to say Cambridge, however when the snow transition arrives the core radius of the PPN belt is probably only 50 Miles from the SE limit to the NW extent.

The snowbelt (Settling) will probably only extend 20 miles inwards.

 

So your essentially looking at a very narrow corridor spanning 20 miles-

 

that 'zone' could run from SE Essex/nw kent across South London to Surrey * North sussex- or of course be further NW or SE...

 

the models will swing about & they have the right sort of zone.

 

Sadly  the reality is -it will be a nowcast............ IE T0-3.

 

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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