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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Great pub run

    gfs-0-168.png?18

    The Azores ridge sheering away, this would lead to a more prolonged easterly.

    850s look decent enough 

    gfs-1-168.png?18

    Snow showers pushing into all eastern counties.

    Day 7 onwards shows a disturbance over France moving up towards the UK, heavy snow moves north west in the south of the UK.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

    The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

    You sound like my ex

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Hooray our own little mod thread minus the needle. Keep it coming guys we shall not be denied our snow most of us crave . Today it seems viewing models is a wonderful obsession

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Much better 18Z slider is also further east & going by this run London will get heavy snowfall.

    post-19153-0-80374500-1421361101_thumb.j

    I have a gut that this could be better than 2013...perhaps I'm getting too far ahead... Or am I?

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    Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

    Bit early yet to be comparing events, especially after everyone got their hopes up for Tuesday evening's event. However, there are positive signs.

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border

    Much better 18Z slider is also further east & going by this run London will get heavy snowfall.

    attachicon.gifimage.jpg

    I have a gut that this could be better than 2013...perhaps I'm getting too far ahead... Or am I?

     

    Yes, you are, calm down...... its just one of many possible scenarios

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    hibernation.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Monday

    post-17424-0-04187800-1421362274_thumb.p

    Slack north/north westerly wind

    A front lies close to the coast, so again the chance of some snow showers possible in place.

    Very cold - Temperatures 0-2C

     

    Severe frost overnight - Down to -5C or even lower possible.

     

    Tuesday

    post-17424-0-04890600-1421362275_thumb.p

    Light southerly wind

    Looks dry with sunny spells, cloud will increase in the west later on.

    Temperatures - 1-3C

     

    The question is, doe the front ever make it? Then of course how quick does the wind swing to the east/north east and start the showers back up again.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Yes, you are, calm down...... its just one of many possible scenarios

    Not so sure I agree with your semantics, it's showing in the semi reliable timeframe E'ly that is before further snow interest beforehand, all the possible scenarios point to cold staying put for over 7 days, ingredients for the fable Thames streamer. I tell what I see and it certainly ain't wishy washy cold.

    post-19153-0-48490700-1421361964_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

    No denying that the next few days and next week is looking a lot colder with some wintry precip almost certain for some in favoured places.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl

    That was a cracking 18z GFS run for most of us... I am hopeful that my commute to work can involve sledging down Priory Park in Reigate next week :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Herts
  • Location: Herts

    I think expectations need a bit of cooling off just at the minute. First of all, you need the cold in place, and for most in this region that will take place (Will temps be cold enough for snow? Quite possibly in a number of locations) Now crucially, you need the PPN to coincide with these temps, and the models at the moment are not quite sure whether this will happen for all in the EA/SE. We've seen the models constantly changing in the past few days in terms of PPN placement, so that, honestly, will probably have to wait until a few hours before any even falls.... We saw both on Boxing day and on Tuesday that PPN can easily shift about prior to it reaching the area, and important factors such as warm sectors could easily come into play in the following week. 

     

    However, the models are showing the first real chances of snow in the SE and EA for nearly two years (Of course, that also happened with Tuesday and Boxing day) and hopefully they will come to fruition. 

     

    The nature of where we are in the country though, means there's always going to be some question marks.

     

    Some of you will probably disagree just because you think I'm being negative, but I just urge people to be cautious, and not to get their hopes up. We've been burned time and time again by snow failing to materialise after people hyped up. Hopefully, however, that will not happen this time around. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

    Surely something, even a flurry has to come from this week's opportunities?!! But I shall watch patiently.....sort of...!!x

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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border

    well Fergies latest post in model discussion is full of joy for us, if it comes off on sunday, poss 2-5 cm's and good agreement on it across models


    sorry, when i say us... this is what he says....

     

    2-5 cm snow having accumulated by Sunday afternoon approx N Kent/S London down WSW to Hants.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    well Fergies latest post in model discussion is full of joy for us, if it comes off on sunday, poss 2-5 cm's and good agreement on it across models

    sorry, when i say us... this is what he says....

     

    2-5 cm snow having accumulated by Sunday afternoon approx N Kent/S London down WSW to Hants.

    Good news for you! When you've finished with it, send it up here will you? :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cuxton,Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms,Hot `n` sunny!
  • Location: Cuxton,Kent.

    North Kent? Helllooo Greenhithe!  

     

    As long as it melts by Monday or i`ll not be heading out to work on the motorbike. (

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I just think the 22 months with no snow has rattled the cage, so to speak. I thoroughly agree with being cautious, after many disappointments you do build up a immunity - and sometimes this reflects in posts.

    No worries about PPN next week - with troughs in the mix also disturbances... Biscay Low, which is holding firm interest Sunday, It is looking cold enough, the painful part is whether the upper air profile will support snow it may be cold for snow on the ground, but far up it is pivotal to have that cold layer.

    Mild sectors can result in freezing rain, not something at all appealing. Chart from GEM shows a defined mild sector hindering snowfall for southern counties. I will say it will snow in the SE, not as much to more northerly quadrant, cautiously optimistic - London & SE/EA will see its first fall of snow.

    Since quite a while. And this warms the heart, following 2 years of endless waffling. I do not forsee a ice age, but in all fairness I would take the current output in a heartbeat, there is cause to be "happy".

    post-19153-0-73370900-1421365067_thumb.j

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

    I just think the 22 months with no snow has rattled the cage, so to speak. I thoroughly agree with being cautious, after many disappointments you do build up a immunity - and sometimes this reflects in posts.

    No worries about PPN next week - with troughs in the mix also disturbances... Biscay Low, which is holding firm interest Sunday, It is looking cold enough, the painful part is whether the upper air profile will support snow it may be cold for snow on the ground, but far up it is pivotal to have that cold layer.

    Mild sectors can result in freezing rain, not something at all appealing. Chart from GEM shows a defined mild sector hindering snowfall for southern counties. I will say it will snow in the SE, not as much to more northerly quadrant, cautiously optimistic - London & SE/EA will see its first fall of snow.

    Since quite a while. And this warms the heart, following 2 years of endless waffling. I do not forsee a ice age, but in all fairness I would take the current output in a heartbeat, there is cause to be "happy".

    attachicon.gifimage.jpg

    Yes, agree with that although I have a gut feeling that us in EA will miss out over the weekend and need an Easterly setting up midweek onwards to deliver the goods; unfortunately there seems to be a lot of uncertainty about that!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    We are running with increased risk 2-5 cm snow having accumulated by Sunday afternoon approx N Kent/S London down WSW to Hants. Reasonable support now for this outcome between EC, UKMO-GM and E4.

    This is good for me - not going to go crazy yet. :wink: E4 coming in range will be interesting. I hope we all get a share, we all deserve it. :friends: It is a tough business being on this forum, tiring almost. :p Buckle down and just go with the flow, enjoy the ride where there is hope, there is much to ponder in the coming days.

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    Good luck with tomorrows event far SE, then again on Sunday, we look to far north for this one, but will watch radar runs, a little shift north and N M4 in the action!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex

    Did ask this on the main forum but is fergie suggesting snow south east of the line from north Kent to Hampshire or am I misunderstanding?

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    well Fergies latest post in model discussion is full of joy for us, if it comes off on sunday, poss 2-5 cm's and good agreement on it across models

    sorry, when i say us... this is what he says....

     

    2-5 cm snow having accumulated by Sunday afternoon approx N Kent/S London down WSW to Hants.

    Dam, I need to move back to Croydon ASAP.

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    Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

    Did ask this on the main forum but is fergie suggesting snow south east of the line from north Kent to Hampshire or am I misunderstanding?

    From my reading i thought that too, imagine SE corner would join the action but a flow from the sea wouldn't help i would of thought. Mr Murr is your man to solve that one!

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    What happened to John Pike? Does he not post anymore?

     

    High Resolution NetWX (NMM) model shows a largely dry night for us tomorrow (Friday) with perhaps some rain showers flirting with the far South coast.

     

    Saturday gets a little more interesting with widespread snow showers across much of the country.. unfortunately, less exciting for us here in our little corner (going by this model only)

     

    post-7073-0-23067000-1421368988_thumb.pn

     

    Coming up with a forecast for Saturday is proving incredibly difficult.

    Edited by Daniel Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    I think expectations need a bit of cooling off just at the minute. First of all, you need the cold in place, and for most in this region that will take place (Will temps be cold enough for snow? Quite possibly in a number of locations) Now crucially, you need the PPN to coincide with these temps, and the models at the moment are not quite sure whether this will happen for all in the EA/SE. We've seen the models constantly changing in the past few days in terms of PPN placement, so that, honestly, will probably have to wait until a few hours before any even falls.... We saw both on Boxing day and on Tuesday that PPN can easily shift about prior to it reaching the area, and important factors such as warm sectors could easily come into play in the following week. 

     

    However, the models are showing the first real chances of snow in the SE and EA for nearly two years (Of course, that also happened with Tuesday and Boxing day) and hopefully they will come to fruition. 

     

    The nature of where we are in the country though, means there's always going to be some question marks.

     

    Some of you will probably disagree just because you think I'm being negative, but I just urge people to be cautious, and not to get their hopes up. We've been burned time and time again by snow failing to materialise after people hyped up. Hopefully, however, that will not happen this time around. 

    I agree Saint, nobody should get carried away or mention 1947, 1963 or 2010, as long as nobody mentions 1947, 1963 or 2010, then nobody will get disappointed by the approaching mega freeze that is going to plunge us into ice and snow for the next 14 days. :oops: Cold, dry and breezy.

    Edited by lassie23
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