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rain alarm picking   large showers over  the west side of the country  mainly looks  like kent will see them

Na to me the precipitation is moving slightly ENE.
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Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

You sound like my ex

Posted Images

It should be noted that despite the complaints about the ECMWF 12z det., from a very selfish point of view for this thread, it was a very snowy run indeed for Kent, Sussex, Surrey, London, Essex and Southern and Eastern parts of Herts - as a one off I will post you a snapshot:

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2015-01-15 at 21.06.46.png

 

The scale on the right is in inches, though it should be noted that carries a 10:1 ratio (probably a little optimistic) - but thats falls from 3 separate events.

 

It shows that whilst everyone worries about what comes after +120, theres plenty of potential before we get anywhere near that, and after last winter I'm sure many would take this.

 

SK

 

Cheers SK.  One question, is the chart indicating cumulative snowfall up to 120hrs or for a particular day?

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Hi SK there is no such things as selfish in this thread your input is always warmly recieved, what timeline are we at from the above? Going by that I would be in the sweet spot, lol it's enough to cause chaos on London's porous infrastructure, but yup as mentioned in previous pages. Isn't that a product by that shortwave tracking down the North Sea, shown on ECM +72? + LP near france. Thanks for clarifying.

post-19153-0-01343700-1421356805_thumb.j

Edited by Daniel*
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Cheers SK.  One question, is the chart indicating cumulative snowfall up to 120hrs or for a particular day?

 

That is Total Snow actually up until day 10, but it has all fallen by day 6/7 before becoming drier as the high collapses across us. 

 

Even for Stansted (a little North of the main zone) the projection from the meteograms are ~4 inches (10:1 ratio considered of course).

 

But anyway, just a single deterministic run that we should not pay too much attention to just yet - even the weekend snow potential is still very much uncertain. I just posted to illustrate the point that the potential for some significant falls is always there is these type of scenarios.

 

SK

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That is Total Snow actually up until day 10, but it has all fallen by day 6/7 before becoming drier as the high collapses across us. 

 

Even for Stansted (a little North of the main zone) the projection from the meteograms are ~4 inches (10:1 ratio considered of course).

 

But anyway, just a single deterministic run that we should not pay too much attention to just yet - even the weekend snow potential is still very much uncertain. I just posted to illustrate the point that the potential for some significant falls is always there is these type of scenarios.

 

SK

 

It's OK, I won't hold you to the charts!! Many thanks, exciting times ahead.......at last!

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3.1oC out in the shed now, still looks and sounds windy out, glad I am tucked up inside for the evening.  No rain and looks quite clear so a cold night ahead.

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Hi SK there is no such things as selfish in this thread your input is always warmly recieved, what timeline are we at from the above? Going by that I would be in the sweet spot, lol it's enough to cause chaos on London's porous infrastructure, but yup as mentioned in previous pages. Isn't that a product by that shortwave tracking down the North Sea, shown on ECM +72? + LP near france.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Hi Daniel,

 

The snow around +72 is actually caused by the low tracking across the channel - the one tracking down the East coast dissipates (should read: disrupts) as it moves South.

 

There is snowfall forecast tomorrow night from the ECMWF forecast so that is something to keep an eye on, you can make that out here too:

 

150115_1200_30.png

 

Next event then Sunday evening:

 

150115_1200_78.png

 

SK

Edited by snowking
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Hi Daniel,

The snow around +72 is actually caused by the low tracking across the channel - the one tracking down the East coast dissipates (should read: disrupts) as it moves South.

There is snowfall forecast tomorrow night from the ECMWF forecast so that is something to keep an eye on, you can make that out here too:

150115_1200_30.png

Next event then Sunday evening:

150115_1200_78.png

SK

Thanks Daniel , CS and SK all very informative getting a tad excited now. Should I tell anyone yet? Naaaa still to soon for me Edited by Mark wheeler
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Looking more broadly at the output beyond the aforementioned ECMWF track, Euro4 has it just scraping the South coast tomorrow:

 

15011618_1512.gif

 

GEM has it further North but as rain:

 

gem-2-30.png?12

 

GFS actually doesn't have it at all on the 12z.

 

And finally UKMO is something of a middle ground:

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.gif

 

When there is this much uncertainty at just T+30, it shows why anything beyond should not yet be viewed as set in stone

Edited by snowking
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Hi Daniel,

The snow around +72 is actually caused by the low tracking across the channel - the one tracking down the East coast dissipates (should read: disrupts) as it moves South.

There is snowfall forecast tomorrow night from the ECMWF forecast so that is something to keep an eye on, you can make that out here too:

150115_1200_30.png

Next event then Sunday evening:

150115_1200_78.png

SK

Ah right cheers so channel low? ECM is never far off the mark at T72 is it? although you can expect subtle changes in track S or N, if that came to fruitition, widespread snowfall for the South East east of the IOW. I thought it was funny them mentioning about Friday, it never crossed my mind until later today, Fingers crossed eh. We are in the fortunate position that whatever does fall will somewhat heal past wounds. Oh tomorrow night & 72hr I am a muddled. Never contemplated any snowfall less than 24 hours out. Excitement ramped up. :good:

Edited by Daniel*
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Ah right cheers so channel low? 

More of a shortwave disturbance than a full blown low but a similar sort of idea - it does develop a closed circulation as it tracks beyond the meridian

 

SK

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When there is this much uncertainty at just T+30, it shows why anything beyond should not yet be viewed as set in stone

 

Amen to that, need some of your level headedness over on the MOD thread.  The 18z's on it's way out now, get over there quick!!!

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The BBC weather suggests the Sunday southern precipitation from the wrap around front is more likely rain, though sleety/snowy at it's northern extent. From Monday it's battleground UK with fronts ahead of the Atlantic trying to push east and stalling somewhere over the UK before retreating, rinse and repeat.

 

In these cases it is not usually the outcome that they get as far east as London. Somewhere Bristol to Oxford can be a sweet spot. But early dates for any conclusions.

 

GFS 06z: post-14819-0-18764300-1421359460_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Tuesday's front has a small warm sector but other factors hinting it may still fall as snow:

 

post-14819-0-64991200-1421359657_thumb.ppost-14819-0-03157900-1421359658_thumb.p

 

Could go either way for south M25.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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The BBC weather suggests the Sunday southern precipitation from the wrap around front is more likely rain, though sleety/snowy at it's northern extent. From Monday it's battleground UK with fronts ahead of the Atlantic trying to push east and stalling somewhere over the UK before retreating, rinse and repeat.

 

In these cases it is not usually the outcome that they get as far east as London. Somewhere Bristol to Oxford can be a sweet spot. But early dates for any conclusions.

 

GFS 06z: attachicon.gifgfs-2-60.png

Jeez cheer up mate.

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Wasn't really expecting too much snow from next week so Sunday's possibilty is a great hors d'oeuvres. So close to a possible snow event already- and if those on the southern coastal counties are on the right side of marginal there could be a 10cm bonus for the higher Downs areas.

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Things are heating up regarding Sunday

18Z

post-19153-0-25998800-1421360085_thumb.j

12Z

post-19153-0-50786800-1421360111_thumb.j

Biscay Low further north renewing chance of snowfall for the SE, this model ain't really been gunning for it as well as the others, interesting. This might be a new trend.

Edited by Daniel*
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A mixed bag of EC clusters.... any pronouncements of a secure and swift return to 'mild' conditions need to be taken with pinch of salt. Meanwhile, nearer-term focus needs to be on the late Sat-Sun high WBPT plume curving atop the low running off down into Biscay. *Could* get interesting on N flank of this feature, but wide spread in PPN envelope (e.g. MOGREPS has this anywhere from N France to S Midlands!!).... Fergie

Clearly the South Downs are looking very good for some considerable snow even the S coast...

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