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Whilst on a quick walk to the shop I noticed also how much milder it appears, the wind is quite active now, no rain here yet.

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Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

You sound like my ex

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Evening all. Well, the charts look very poor for coldies at the moment. Rinse and repeat between cooler and milder with wind and rain thrown in. Perhaps an outside shot at some temporary slushy coverings later next week into week 3.

End of Jan and into Feb we look now for some potential proper white stuff. I'm taking a punt and will say look towards Scandinavia as we enter February....If that fails then the fat lady will be clearing her throat.

Edited by Shrimper
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Has anyone got an update on the 14th Storm please

Hi Amanda, the jet will be sinking a little further south by the 14th which means it will be cooler but we may also have low pressure systems taking a more southerly track, which could mean stronger winds for us. Unfortunately you will probably have to wait until the 11th for exact details to firm up for your big day! Hope all the other preparations are going smoothly! :)

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FAX charts

Tomorrow

post-17424-0-03525400-1420660760_thumb.p

 

Moderate west/north westerly winds.

Rain will clear the south east by midday to leave sunshine and showers, some heavy.

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-25-0.png?07-18

Mild at 9-11C

 

Friday

post-17424-0-90566600-1420660762_thumb.p

Strong westerly winds

Outbreaks of light rain likely at times, a mainly cloudy day

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-50-0.png?07-18

10-12C

 

Turning even milder for a time overnight

 

Saturday

post-17424-0-65822700-1420660765_thumb.p

Fresh to strong west/north westerly winds

Early rain followed by sunshine and cooler conditions later in the day.

Temperatures - 11-13C, cooler later.

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Has anyone got an update on the 14th Storm please

It looks like if the storm does arrive it will be a day later (15th).

ECM

ECM1-168.GIF?07-0

GFS

gfs-0-168.png?12

Parallel

gfs-0-168.png?12

 

Actually doesn't look too bad for your big day. There could be some rain and it could be windy, but at this time nothing too severe.

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news said strong winds here tonight and into early hours but seems quite quiet here right now.

I noticed a wave on the fax chart posted by CS, it's probably that, that's going to produce some wind. Nothing like Scotland is expecting though.

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Why wats it showing?

What charts are you looking at?

 

I seriously wouldn't worry about specifics this far out. I doubt any major windstorm has been predicted with confidence outside of a 5 day period, in our part of the World. You're fretting somewhat unnecessarily imho. My advice would be to wait for at least 48 and preferably 72 hours without stressing about specific charts. You have in your mind that we might be affected by a windstorm and there is indeed a chance it will happen but you have as much awareness as you need at this point.

 

Wait until the Weekend and the chances are that the storm potential will downgrade - almost certainly the current synoptic charts won't end up like the reality... And I hope your wedding goes very well. :) 

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I'm sure the birds think it is spring! They have been tweeting away since 4am, hardly surprising as it's 10.6c at 6.30am in January! The plants are also being fooled, trees are budding and flowers are errrrr flowering. It is damp and cloudy, only had 30 minutes of heavy rain. Feel sorry for Northern Scotland, they are in for a battering with gusts of wind hitting 100mph in exposed places. :smiliz23: What has tonight  got in store for us?

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Morning all

A very dull, damp & mild start to the day.

The outputs are a little better in terms of a brief cold spell, only short lived but at this stage especially with the current set ups we can't be too fussy.

That 17th date for a change has been showing & talked about for a while and although everything is still in FI its starting to get into high res frame.

I'm a little more optimistic this morning but still a long way to go, atleast it makes the next 48hrs model watching interesting whilst we wait for this current garbage to ease.

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Rain far more expansive across southern and central parts than forecast JUST last night (goes to show some of the detail at short range is still fairly poor from the MetO) as per last Sunday when they forecast just a light frost at first with milder temps by the afternoon which was clearly not the case - so a lot of brushing up to do from them!

 

As for today - just another rubbish day so far in this winter and no doubt many more to come. :(

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