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Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


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Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

You sound like my ex

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Hi does anyone have any updates for gusts inthe southeast with weds thurs storm ?

Where in the SE are you asking? or should I say what are of London but position will be a huge factor in trying to answer your question,

 

Like I stated above this week is really a case of take each day as it comes now and check the meto for warning updates and for wind/gusts speed use here http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

P.S Will you be back here after your wedding out of interest  :D

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Well my wedding will be in Kent really Wilmington so busy at the moment but I've got a lot of people travelling back and forth so that's why I'm really worried especially for my elderly family members! Now I'm a member I shall be using this site often just been told the strongest winds will be further north any truth in that? Many thanks x

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Well my wedding will be in Kent really Wilmington so busy at the moment but I've got a lot of people travelling back and forth so that's why I'm really worried especially for my elderly family members! Now I'm a member I shall be using this site often just been told the strongest winds will be further north any truth in that? Many thanks x

 

We'll the strongest gusts look to be through the middle of the night/early hours of Weds into Thurs so I wouldn't worry too much, on average I would say gusts of 40/50mph possible also accompanied by heavy rain, this could also lead to sleet/snow especially over higher ground but at present that's more NW & West of our region but even here I wouldn't think it will lead to any significant amounts apart from high up locations, Ice would be more of a factor.

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Thank you so not looking as bad for the southeast now phew

 

We'll around the coasts it will pack more of a punch but like all of these type of events it becomes a nowcast situation, once it gets going we can know alot more by using sites like http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ and see what they are recording.

 

In terms of snow you want to watch the rainfall radars some of these highlight what is falling as snow and sleet BUT i personally just use a rain radar then look at peoples observations.

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With regard to warnings

 

Next 24 hours

South coast - Hampshire into Kent

This is a rain warning due to spells of heavy and persistent rain from this afternoon until tomorrow morning. 15-20mm expected widely.

 

Wednesday and Thursday

Widespread warning for rain across the region

20-40mm widely with 60-80mm over the hills, so again flooding could be an issue.

 

Widespread warning for wind

Gusts of 50-65 mph expected widely but up to 75 mph over the hills and on the southern and eastern coasts (regarding this region).

 

The warnings for snow and ice on Tuesday night graze the far west of the region. So at this moment no significant snow event is forecast for this area. This can change though and I guess many will be radar watching that night.

 

That said Friday holds interest with regards to snow, but I will wait until the afternoon runs are out for more info and this involves another secondary low and at this point it could shift away from us or not even develop.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Provoking a little bit of excitement

gfs-0-90.png?12

gfs-2-90.png?12

GFS sees an area of rain moving through the region on Friday morning, this turns increasingly to snow as it moves through. Something to watch :)

The parallel also has a shallow secondary system moving along the south coast, again a mix of rain, sleet and snow.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Wednesday wee hours shows much interest :D

some quite heavy snowfall is projected 2-6cm going by fergie esp with those with elevation

post-19153-0-54059100-1421079209_thumb.jpost-19153-0-30756100-1421079244_thumb.j

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I think it would snow in the SE if the PPN stretched that far, I have everything crossed. But the parameters look rather good, EURO4 is being a meanie I expect to see some pink in the next run. :drinks:

Going back to that storm GFS (P) its looking like a really nasty fellow with a sting MO would contemplate amber verging on red :shok: worst storm in many a year. Not far off 87.

post-19153-0-32456600-1421081527_thumb.j

Edited by Daniel*
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Funny you mention that CS, although I said earlier today I'm not looking towards the weekend too much yet the feature you posted did catch my eye when looking at the gfs weather type chart

15011606_1212.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/12/basis12/ukuk/rart/15011606_1212.gif

 

It does seem to fizzle out here

15011612_1212.gif

But as we know these systems can swap and change right up to the event, interesting viewing as you say and also would make the morning rush hour challenging for some areas.

 

IMBY the Meto does have a sleet symbol showing for 9am..that would be a start to my winter here lol

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At the moment, best chances for widespread snow will be longer term... However, the models are certainly hinting at positive signs (Well, more than hinting, but more runs are needed and a few days required to firm anything up). 

Edited by saint
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YELLOW WARNING FOR SNOW

Showers of hail, sleet and snow on Tuesday evening and overnight are likely to leave a covering of snow of 3 - 6 cm in places, especially on ground over 100 m but also locally to lower levels too. Icy patches will also form on untreated surfaces. The public should be aware of the risk of tricky driving conditions.

A cold westerly airstream will spread across the area on Tuesday evening, allowing frequent showers in the overnight period to fall as snow, especially over high ground. There is some uncertainty over how much snow will settle at low levels, and many places within the yellow area may miss the snow altogether. However, where snow does occur it is likely to be heavy and produce a covering quite quickly.

Local Authorities affected and associated warning levels

Buckinghamshire, Hampshire, Oxfordshire, Reading, West Berkshire

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1421107200&regionName=se

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Thank you so not looking as bad for the southeast now phew

None of the official forecasts have said that, if anything they upgraded their Warnings today. The whole country is under threat from 60-70mph gusts with exposed coasts potentially seeing 80-90mph+

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Some of us (me too) are now getting excited about sleet, lol, blimey is this the best mother nature can do for our 'winter' !

Who is getting excited about sleet? I want powder snow - standards must not slip. :D In the case you get into that showery band on tuesday night into wednesday morning it will likely be snow. Some of your posts are very gloomy brighten up, you wanted a beast? You'd like the GFS (P) 12z then? snow event could be on the cards watch this space, IMO it is beckoning. I have a good feeling but this has not been the only time...

Some eye candy

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I promise to cheer up, there is still a notable storm on its way and thats not changing now, i will go out in the worst of it and try to find flying objects, maybe some fence panels. Also nice to see that some sort of snow may be real close to my area. And who knows, the charts may start showing a good northerly or dare i say it an easterly !

 

:good:

Edited by mickeyb44
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Wendy Hurrell on BBC London forecast hinted at the possibility of 65-70mph gusts (inland) surely that would warrant Amber warnings in due course?

Inland over the hills though? if so the warning does cover that at present, may be when the event gets started and some recordings out West start coming in they may issue an Amber?

 

I reckon it will go to Amber widely across the country soon anyway tbh.

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Wendy Hurrell on BBC London forecast hinted at the possibility of 65-70mph gusts (inland) surely that would warrant Amber warnings in due course?

 

Yes, they will come if the models are showing them tomorrow I suspect. 

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