Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

You sound like my ex

Posted Images

hi all happy new year. not been in in a while. i am a nervous flyer and am flying from gatwick to dublin at 9.40am tomorrow morning, and back friday 3pm. trying to make out if i will be encountering some strong winds (i will head to the bar for a stiff drink if so ) x

 

aah, the 9.40 flight to dublin...

 

wing_walk_1919.jpg

 

 

you'll be fine. your flights will miss the worst of any winds.

its when you get there you might want to be careful, i just hope you're not staying in a tent!

 

ukgust.png

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Think the snow for the SE/EA was never really on the cards TBH, nothing I saw anyway, think it was more hope than forecast.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Think the snow for the SE/EA was never really on the cards TBH, nothing I saw anyway, think it was more hope than forecast.

We will have to wait and see. It looks to be the case of hoping that any showers survive the trip across the UK.

 

Anyway Thursday

post-17424-0-23433500-1421012535_thumb.p

Strong to Gale force westerly, the track of the low is still uncertain, the Metoffice keen on a more northerly track and the highest winds being over northern England and southern Scotland. Still 50-60mph gusts from this. Will have to keep an eye on this.

 

Early rain will clear to leave a brighter day with sunny spells and the odd blustery shower.

 

Temperatures - 7-9C

Edited by Captain shortwave
Link to post
Share on other sites

528 air over us in the SE BBC showing temps 7c remember years ago 528 air indicated the Snow line and temps just above freezing, has this changed?

As far as I know that setup is borderline and is the boundry to potential wintry precip falling but not set in stone as other factors will be at play as well.

Link to post
Share on other sites

528 air over us in the SE BBC showing temps 7c remember years ago 528 air indicated the Snow line and temps just above freezing, has this changed?

Hi Blunt, since we are getting cold air from a westerly source the cold is moderated by the warm ocean with SST warm for the time of year it doesn't help matters, however what is apparent is how unusually cold, -6C/-7C 850s tuesday evening/night. if we had a easterly flow, then the Fax from previous page would ensure the PPN would be 100% snow, day & night. Personally the MO tend to overdo temperatures, and since the 'shower train' anticipated coincides with nocturnal cooling, this enhances the risk of snow. Even I could get something going by the below posted by fergie. ECM 12z for example is good for our region, it is not a done deal. And the weather forecast uses old data, see in the morning the latest data will be available.

Brief update. High confidence now on snow for parts of W Country later Tues/Tues night. Several cm possible higher ground, notably (as it stands) Exmoor, northern Mendips Plateau; parts of Cotswolds. Likely the shower line (to Cb) extending down roughly M4 to give some surviving all the way towards London. Fairly high depth temperature should help prevent much low-lying accumulation. Different story on uplands aforementioned.

Edited by Daniel*
Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Blunt, since we are getting cold air from a westerly source the cold is moderated by the warm ocean with SST warm for the time of year it doesn't help matters, however what is apparent is how unusually cold, -6C/-7C 850s tuesday evening/night. if we had a easterly flow, then the Fax from previous page would ensure the PPN would be 100% snow, day & night. Personally the MO tend to overdo temperatures, and since the 'shower train' anticipated coincides with nocturnal cooling, this enhances the risk of snow. Even I could get something going by the below posted by fergie. :)

ECM 12z for example is good for our region, it is not a done deal. And the weather forecast uses old data.

Brief update. High confidence now on snow for parts of W Country later Tues/Tues night. Several cm possible higher ground, notably (as it stands) Exmoor, northern Mendips Plateau; parts of Cotswolds. Likely the shower line (to Cb) extending down roughly M4 to give some surviving all the way towards London. Fairly high depth temperature should help prevent much low-lying accumulation. Different story on uplands aforementioned.

Remember that the temperatures will still be mild during the morning until the frontal system clears and then temperatures will drop. The models place surface temperatures and dewpoints near freezing overnight. My concern of course will be the showers dying out before they reach our art of the world. Always the case in a westerly flow.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyway day 5 (Friday)

post-17424-0-28220500-1421015614_thumb.p

Light and variable winds. Probably a westerly element at times.

 

Now then this is an interesting chart. An area of rain will move along the southern third of the UK, on the northern edge this could fall as snow in places. Still too far out to make any certain call on this. But one to watch.

Temperatures - 3-5C

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Remember that the temperatures will still be mild during the morning until the frontal system clears and then temperatures will drop. The models place surface temperatures and dewpoints near freezing overnight. My concern of course will be the showers dying out before they reach our art of the world. Always the case in a westerly flow.

Indeed but going by Ian Cb is expected to sprout over M4 corridor Cb cloud is usually associated with summer storms & potent showers? evaporative cooling will ensure we're on the right side of marginal, if DPs are slightly above 0. I think I might get a dusting at best. I will take it LOL. :laugh:

Link to post
Share on other sites

Indeed but going by Ian Cb is expected to sprout over M4 corridor Cb cloud is usually associated with summer storms & potent showers? evaporative cooling will ensure we're on the right side of marginal, if DPs are slightly above 0. I think I might get a dusting at best. I will take it LOL. :laugh:

As the old saying goes, it will be down to radar watching. If the showers can reach here then I think some people might to get to watch some flakes falling from the sky.

This week does look interesting and both the GFS and parallel are trying to disrupt the next wave of attack from Greenland into week 2. Of course given the marginality of all the potential events, this could also be a rage inducing week ahead. I would love to see a nice wedge of heights to our north and give us an easterly because that would be so much easier and guarantee some snow.

Anyway time for some shut eye, hopefully we will see a shift into the "win" category for cold and snow tomorrow, it won't take much, on the other it wouldn't take much for us to end up average or even mild in the temperature stakes.  :lazy:

Edited by Captain shortwave
Link to post
Share on other sites

Just noticed it is spitting of rain out here at the moment, trees are more mobile too so looks like the wind is already increasing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm in a shepherds hut in a field near Rye next weekend- I can't decide whether it's going to be boggy or frosty. I pray for the latter!

Here is a clue :cold: although the boggy stuff might ice over, wrap up well. It is cold and breezy out. What's a shepherds hut? :unknw:

Edited by lassie23
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

The 'missing link' or in other words the pressure/wind chart for midnight Wednesday going into Thursday. Credit to Icelandic Met Office

Thanks for posting. On the face of it, it looks like a serious blow - 20 to 22 metres per second equates to force 8 or 9 (multiply the m/s figure by 2.2 to get the rough miles per hour equivalent) One thing that puzzles me though is the lack of differential between inland and coastal / sea areas, especially with that 100m figure quoted. If it relates to wind at 100m above ground then it'd obviously be less serious than the 10m above ground level, which IIRC is where official wind measurements are taken.

Nervy times ahead for people who don't like windstorms, whatever.

Edited by Steve C
Link to post
Share on other sites

Windy here with some very light dizzily bits blowing in the wind from time to time. 

 

Saw the weather on good morning Britain, and they said we could all see some snow from the showers tommorow. So I'm crossing my fingers, that a few flurries fall here. I'm not expecting any lying snow though if it does happen. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Just finished picking all my cuddly toys up and putting them back in my pram after my tantrum last night.

Been model watching for years and I should no better, wait until its in the 72 hour timeframe and see what the meto have to say about it.

Northern Ireland, wales and maybe parts of the south coast / east coast look to be in for the strongest gusts, with 50=55 widely in many other

areas.

 

:good:

Link to post
Share on other sites

MetO snow alert out for London & SE. Tuesday evening and night.

 

Heavy snow at 3am for our neck of the woods but with temps at 2C

Edited by stun12
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

MetO snow alert out for London & SE. Tuesday evening and night.

 

Heavy snow at 3am for our neck of the woods but with temps at 2C

 

Just spotted that also, those more NW should see something of interest atleast.

 

For the majority the rubbish continues ....

Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a feeling these sort of threads will be full of " WILL IT SNOW IN MY GARDEN"....

 

Anyone thinking such a question I would highly recommend keeping an eye on the met office forecasts and warnings now for this week. There is a good chance of something wintry for all but to pinpoint an exact location is like a needle in a haystack especially in our little micro climate of a region.

 

Also at present I would keep an eye on the rainfall totals for today and through the night, a lot of different weather types on offer this week, all need watching closely day by day.

 

In my opinion it's not worth looking too far ahead, personally I'm not watching for next weekend yet, the fruit is being shown but we have enough interest over the next 48hrs and how that plays out will give a good indication of what output to take more notice of for the weekend, again just my opinion. These types of set ups usually have a sting in the tail and offer a surprise somewhere that didn't expect.

 

:cold:  :bomb:  :help:  :drinks:  :clap:  :gathering:  :clapping:

Edited by Kent Blizzard
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...