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Just another link-   The Euro4 model is the one my above post but will add again- For beginners use these 2 - you can just change the timelines with each model run ( some 2 hours after each run it

The front is now beginning to push in-   Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve,   There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW)  

You sound like my ex

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Dew point is the temperature at which a parcel of air can no longer hold on to its moisture; if the temperature drops to that level, precipitation will result.  Strictly speaking, it is the point at which the rate of condensation of water vapour outstrips that of evaporation.  Colder air holds less water than warm air, and therefore, as temperature increases, the relative humidity decreases (relative humidity, expressed as a percentage, is the ratio of the partial pressure of water vapour in a given parcel of air to the equilibrium pressure in that same parcel, i.e. the point at which the rate of condensation equals that of evaporation and the air cannot hold any more vapour).  What this means is that, as the relative humidity increases, the gap between the actual temperature and dew point narrows.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheforecaster
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What have you got against trees?!   :help:

 

Not sure I'd expect to see a warning from the met office today for next week's possible storm, a lot of uncertainty over it still. I could be wrong of course but would think Sunday/Monday would be around the time they may push something out should still look as nasty. 

Amanda 2012 will find this useful as she is getting married on the 14th and the last thing she needs is dangerous weather. Calm here compared to the wild and wet morning, 6.5c and falling. :cold:

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12z now showing the strongest winds in different areas again, it will probably keep changing over the next few days.

Someone has mentioned they have a met office friend who says it will be much further north and less severe, im not

going to argue with the words of a met forecaster but, really hope they are wrong.

 

Thanks Chrisbell for that in depth explanation, i will need to read it several times to try and understand it all though :good:

Edited by mickeyb44
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I will take that :whistling:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82208-model-output-discussion-stormy-period-inbound/page-37#entry3111408

I have never been so snow hungry it manifests in my posts sometimes :laugh:

you might get more  then you need looking at the  models at the moment   its looking  very nasty to say  the least at the moment  for the next week

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you might get more  then you need looking at the  models at the moment   its looking  very nasty to say  the least at the moment  for the next week

I won't believe it until I read it in the daily express .

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12z now showing the strongest winds in different areas again, it will probably keep changing over the next few days.

Someone has mentioned they have a met office friend who says it will be much further north and less severe, im not

going to argue with the words of a met forecaster but, really hope they are wrong.

 

Thanks Chrisbell for that in depth explanation, i will need to read it several times to try and understand it all though :good:

 

 

As usual, I haven't made things very clear. :oops:   I'll have another try. :D

 

 

 

Dew point is the temperature at which a parcel of air can no longer hold on to its moisture; if the temperature drops to that level, precipitation will result.  Strictly speaking, it is the point at which the rate of condensation of water vapour outstrips that of evaporation.  Colder air holds less water than warm air, and therefore, as temperature increases, the relative humidity decreases.  Relative humidity, expressed as a percentage, is the ratio of the partial pressure of the water vapour in a given parcel of air set against the equilibrium pressure in that same parcel.  Equilibrium pressure is basically the point at which the rate of condensation equals that of evaporation and the air cannot hold any more vapour. 

 

Combining these definitions of relative humidity and equilibrium pressure, it can be seen that the relative humidity is comparing how much water vapour the air contains with how much it could contain.  What all this means this means is that, as the relative humidity increases, the gap between the actual temperature and dew point narrows as the air is getting closer to its equilibrium pressure - it's close to maximum saturation, and even a small drop in temperature will cause precipitation.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheforecaster
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3.5oC now outside, wind has eased a bit more so would not be surprised if some sheltered spots round here see some frost by morning.

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Ground frost in places tonight

15-580PUK.GIF?10-12

temperatures actually don't drop too much due to the wind, but 1-3C should bring a frost in sheltered places.

Shower activity doesn't seem to get much further than the Midlands so I expect all areas will be dry. But if any showers do come then they might be wintry. 

Will do the fax charts in a bit. Dry and clear here at the moment.

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Hi just wondering if there's any updates for the 14/15 storm hoping its not too bad for my wedding

Countryfile forecast tomorrow should give us a slightly clearer indication of what to expect but at the moment its not looking pretty :-(

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Tomorrow

post-17424-0-83937600-1420923907_thumb.p

Fresh west to north west winds

Looks a mainly dry day with sunny spells

 

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-25-0.png?10-18

6-8C 

 

Monday

post-17424-0-44659600-1420923910_thumb.p

Fresh to strong westerly winds

A cloudy day with outbreaks of light to moderate rain on and off throughout.

Temperatures

nmmuk-0-50-0.png?10-18

Mild at 10-12C

 

Tuesday

post-17424-0-94244400-1420923912_thumb.p

A wet start to the day, becoming brighter later

Temperatures

7-10C, turning cooler later in the day.

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I assume the threat of coastal flooding comes from potent LP that tracked to our north, which helped churn up the North Sea, I hope those in the catchment area have no problems. Today is my mothers birthday a muted affair although I tried to inject some excitement :wink: following some troubling times, hopefully her fortunes will rise in the year. SE might scrape a sleet/snow shower later in the night. with that PPN to the SW. Tuesday could have some backedge snowfall for East Anglia extending to London.

This only going by one run but it certainly has my eye...

post-19153-0-50453100-1420931541_thumb.jpost-19153-0-29661200-1420931832_thumb.j

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Wednesday

post-17424-0-28874700-1420931819_thumb.p

Fresh westerly winds

Cold and bright start, turning cloudier and increasingly windy later

Temperatures - 5-7C, rising during the evening.

 

Thursday

post-17424-0-77722100-1420931821_thumb.p

Gale force westerly winds

Looks wild overnight with gusts up to 60-70mph. Rain during the morning will clear to sunny spells

Temperatures - 5-8C (again the temperatures will start around 10C before falling during the day).

 

Treat these with great uncertainty. I would say the same for Tuesday too as the latest runs develop another secondary low which could possibly bring heavy rain on Tuesday with the northern flank possibly seeing something wintry.

 

To those on the east coast. Stay safe.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Thanks Matt.

 

 

Seems a lot calmer outside now, just had a quick nose and still a breeze but nothing like it was this morning, much colder though, soon pulled my nose back in and shut the door again.

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Thanks Matt.

 

 

Seems a lot calmer outside now, just had a quick nose and still a breeze but nothing like it was this morning, much colder though, soon pulled my nose back in and shut the door again.

Never a good idea to.leave one's nose out in the cold ....glad you pulled it back in or it might have got frost bite

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Hi just wondering if there's any updates for the 14/15 storm hoping its not too bad for my wedding

From the latest forecast I have seen on the BBC , the storm will be arriving on the night of the 14th and will cross through the country, therefore putting us in the zone with some of the strongest winds unfortunately. Wednesday night and Thursday are looking a bit dangerous to be out and about. :( There will be heavy rain too. Wednesday daylight hours should be the calm before the storm though. :smile:

Edited by lassie23
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