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Captain Shortwave

By Captain Shortwave
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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted

Really searching around for some precipitation based on the lasted outputs! The 'snow' on Sunday only looks like clipping Kent at best now

Looks to cover a little more than just Kent

15011806_1606.gif

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/16/basis06/nlnl/prty/15011806_1606.gif

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swash Rookie

swash

Posted
  • Location: Epping by day/Bexley by night
  • Location: Epping by day/Bexley by night
Posted

Watch the 12z's bring in the upgrades again. I swear the models have got a sense of humour, the 12z's raise expectations, the pub run sends everyone to bed deliriously happy, then the evil 0z's come along and put everyone in a bad mood for the working day.

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steveinsussex Seasoned

steveinsussex

Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
Posted

It's nowherenear that widespread, it literally clips the region

Obviously subject to change but...

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)

It's nowherenear that widespread, it literally clips the region

Obviously subject to change but...

Are you going off the GFS?

 

Can you post me the chart/link to have a look at please Steve as I'd like to take a look

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Bogman Community Regular

Bogman

Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
Posted

It's nowherenear that widespread, it literally clips the region

Obviously subject to change but...

 

 

..........you can either worry about it, or wait and see what happens.

 

Either way, the weather will whatever the weather wants.

fergieweather

fergieweather
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Posted A minute ago

Update re snow prospects in south/Midlands next 24-48 hrs...

Firstly, the situation tonight-tomorrow AM sees WBFL approx 400m with the showery occlusion moving in from the SW. Radiative cooling will enable snow to penetrate to fairly low levels by Sat AM, albeit patchy 2-4cm accumulations generally above 200m across W Country uplands/moors, probably then extending eastward to give light settling in other areas across to E Anglia.

The developments for Sunday are tricky re the SE. As it stands, threat of disruptive snow here is only 25%. This is because 00z EC, plus 06z UKMO-GM & E4 all backed-off on potency of cold undercut; moreover they allow most PPN to clear south before sufficient evaporative cooling could also happen... about 30% MOGREPS support a disruptive snow potential, thus current SE warning is predominantly for rain BUT with caveat of ongoing uncertainty re scope of snow potential.

Finally, I subscribe to Tamara's earlier post. With all forecast emphasis now switching towards colder weather and wintry hazards for at least a few days, it was bemusing to witness such a degree of online wrist-slashing. Equally, I echo her remarks re risk of over-analysing output into medium range in current situation. We have enough issues and operational forecast headaches at T+12 to scope-out, let alone T+120.

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steveinsussex Seasoned

steveinsussex

Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
Posted

Are you going off the GFS?

 

Can you post me the chart/link to have a look at please Steve as I'd like to take a look

Fergie just confirmed it on model thread

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Pixel Community Regular

Pixel

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Surprises
  • Location: Welwyn Herts 115m ASL
Posted

Hi Everyone.. I'd like to share a link i have that enables you to see what "has been" in terms of cloud cover and also infra red - a kind of guess at where the weathers going next - Speed up the animation & it's quite hypnotic  :blink2:

 

Maybe we'll be able to see 'that low' in the bay of biscay going north or south to affect our chances of colder air over our region.. - what ever happens have fun out there :laugh:

 

here:

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/Europe/Europe/Infraredcolor/premium.htm

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted

Wise words from Fergie at the end of that post there


Fergie just confirmed it on model thread

 

That's regarding snow and not the actual lack of precipitation in Kent...we'll that's how I read it.

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Watch the 12z's bring in the upgrades again. I swear the models have got a sense of humour, the 12z's raise expectations, the pub run sends everyone to bed deliriously happy, then the evil 0z's come along and put everyone in a bad mood for the working day.

Sadly it's too late now for this weekend.. The update from fergie has in my view removed our snow chances for Sunday... With it being so close to the event any trend becomes stronger and more difficult to reverse...

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steveinsussex Seasoned

steveinsussex

Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
Posted

Wise words from Fergie at the end of that post there

 

That's regarding snow and not the actual lack of precipitation in Kent...we'll that's how I read it.

Eh?

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)

Really searching around for some precipitation based on the lasted outputs! The 'snow' on Sunday only looks like clipping Kent at best now

^^^^^^^

 

Steve, I originally replying to this post, I.E you seem concerned the lack of precipitation, therefore I'm saying there is precipitation around whether or not it will be snow is a different matter.

 

Fergie states about the rain so it shows there is juice around in the Region, hence the weather warning.

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Emz by the Thames Rising Star

Emz by the Thames

Posted
  • Location: Bucks/Berks border
  • Location: Bucks/Berks border
Posted

Well that was weird - 10 minutes of rain with large snowflakes in it...not really sleet as I know it (i.e small flakes of wet snow) - people in town reporting it too!

 

All gone now and the sun is out again!

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steveinsussex Seasoned

steveinsussex

Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
Posted

^^^^^^^

 

Steve, I originally replying to this post, I.E you seem concerned the lack of precipitation, therefore I'm saying there is precipitation around whether or not it will be snow is a different matter.

 

Fergie states about the rain so it shows there is juice around in the Region, hence the weather warning.

It's there but it doesn't do anything other then clip Kent on the latest output.

Sorry, I'll be quiet while the latest models roll out.

I really hope we have some positive news re snow!

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet....

 

Latest Meto Forecast Summary

 

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Rain on Sunday may turn to sleet or snow before clearing, leaving Monday and Tuesday drier and brighter. Generally cold through this period with light winds and hard overnight frosts.

Updated at: 1458 on Fri 16 Jan 2015

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07

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craigore Aficionado

craigore

Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
Posted

Why is it so dam difficult to get bloody snow in our corner , 2 years and counting , The easterly's keep showing then backing off , it always seems to b in F1.. never actually happening , not of late anyway. Any thing coming from N/N.W Always seems marginal down in our corner without elevation. Unless we can get some real cold down to 2m level than its going to b a wet squib im afraid and I find this just as depressing as the rest of you..

I do however think the reason it  keeps  getting pushed back is that we could be in for a 91 style FEB....{ scandie high eventually)

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Bogman Community Regular

Bogman

Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
Posted (edited)

From no-where, there are warnings out from the met office for parts of the East getting between 2-4cm tomorrow. 

 

According to Carol K this morning, the band of snow/rain/sleet was shown pettering out before it reached us, so this is a surprise bonus, if it happens.

So, again, just wait and see what happens.

Edited by Bogman
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Early indications from the main thread are that we are not trending the right way.. I suspect it might be carnage in there soon.. I'm staying here :)

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)

BBC <<< Not sure when this was last updated, but wanted to post it for reference later/tomorrow

 

London and South East England

Forecast Summary
  • Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday

    Remaining cold with further wintry showers and sunny periods. Showers most likely occurring during Sunday, perhaps with some prolonged snow for a time. Widespread overnight frosts, locally severe

  • .http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)

Quite deep LP to the NW

gfsnh-0-90.png?12

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011612/gfsnh-0-90.png?12

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Sadly, I think my prediction of no lying snow for my area this winter is still on. :(

Edited by chrisbell-nottheforecaster
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