Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[Lampostwatcher]

The showers are now starting to form clumps over Swansea so I'd say in about 10pm places west of the capital and down the m4 corridor will be hit and miss some lucky peope could get a few cms

[Daniel*]

Oh yes today marks the day 2 years ago I made this forum account, following years of being a bystander would be fab to see the elusive frozen flake, on my netweather birthday.

[Jax]

What will be will be.

Too old and long in the tooth to worry about something I can do nothing about. Been here so many times before. If anyone gets anything then it's a bonus.

Best way to look at it.

But, good luck one and all.

Totally agree, no sense getting upset over something you have no control over, que sera sera.

[Whether Idle]

Really unsure if Rochester, Kent will get anything.

Its simply impossible to say, as is almost always the way with these showers.  Hope for the best come morning time - you might see a few flakes, maybe more, decades of watching these scenarios tells me that the most likely scenario is zilch, so expect nothing and you wont be disappointed.

[Jo S]

i will try to stay awake to see any flurries , until i fall asleep, which wont be long after i finish my 15hr shift 

Edited January 13, 2015 by Jo S

[Lampostwatcher]

Temp 3.4c dew p 2.4c

[Hellboy]

This site may be of use to people for tonight for dewpoint watch and tomorrow for wind watch

 

http://weatherobs.com/

That's a great site. Thanks for the link.

Much more up to date and detailed than XCWeather.

Finers crossed for some snow come morning. Those lower DPs are slowly moving S/E.

[Daniel*]

Mr Essex man, fellow poster in here

@eefnews Showers expected between 03:00 and 07:00 Wednesday morning. Model data suggests minor accumulations (0.5cm) in a few spots.

@TheRetreat_E18 Sledges on standby for next week, several possible snow events for the South of England.

@bwdloyal Very impressive, ensembles too showing good support for a lengthy cold spell. Several snow ops, just need a closer time frame!

This is for Essex which are known as the direst county in the UK, the further west you are generally the greater the likelihood of getting something decent, more sustained. Futher on interest does not wane. This could be just a little sprint, to what may come. And this is not so far away at all.

[Tom Jarvis]

If the showers turn out as forecast then almost anywhere away from West and south west facing coasts could get some snow by 9am tomorrow.

 

Probable inhabited sweetspot - somewhere like Crowborough, East Sussex at 700ft asl.  Tunbridge Wells, Sevenoaks will do well IF the precipitation arrives.

Altitude will be a huge help - every metre helps AND distance from windward coasts.  Places like Detling in Kent could do well, High Wealden ridges in Sussex, Leith Hill, Box Hill.

The main activity is not likely until 3am - 8am as a forecasted clump of showers tracks west to east.  Fingers crossed for all snow lovers out there.

 

WI

I just live across the forest from crowborough and my altitude is 125 m above sea level. I hope it won't disrupt my travel to London tomorrow

[Metjet]

BBC weather do seem to be downgrading snow potential in the early hours ever so slightly, but imo it is at the time now that it's almost worth not looking at that site anymore and instead looking out the window whilst noting the temperature!

[Shutterbug Netty]

I'd happily stay up for a bit of lamp post watching (even though I'm not expecting anything) but ours get turned off at midnight now.  I think I may have to go out tomorrow and buy myself a powerful torch to shine out of the bedroom window 

[Whether Idle]

I just live across the forest from crowborough and my altitude is 125 m above sea level. I hope it won't disrupt my travel to London tomorrow

Hi.  Its all very hit and miss (more often miss) BUT the chance is there. 4-6 am looks like the highest risk time, as the colder air with instability takes a long while to work its way south east to this corner. The hi res models (only of which euro4 is indicating much in the way of precipitation) tend to over-exaggerate so I wouldn't lose any sleep worrying about your commute.

[fulham snow]

Every time you look at the radar you get a little excited then any ppn just dies out or heads slightly NE,cant see any snow tonight,maybe better luck next week.

[DJ Fart]

Surprised to see quite so much optimism in here as I'd say there's nigh on zero chance of anything for the South East...the future looks good but tonight isn't our time.

Happy to be wrong.

[Daniel*]

Area circled has a trajectory pointing towards London & South-East/Essex (!)

[fulham snow]

image.jpg

Area circled has a trajectory pointing towards London & South-East/Essex (!)

yes but it will die out before it reches us.

[fatyido]

Most of the showers seem to fade the further inland they travel.

Very few are actually reaching as Far East as East Anglia, so not very hopeful of seeing anything in Cambs.

[Whether Idle]

• If you look with a magnifying glass you will see the ridges and downs may get a slushy covering early tomorrow according to the optimistic euro 4.  For most (95%)of us the forecast is zilch.

[Daniel*]

yes but it will die out before it reches us.

It is potent I think it will survive... but we're not on the right side of marginal yet. Potential main event is expected much later, notice them clumps out towards the far South West.

[Met4Cast]

A trough will develop later tonight and that'll allow the showers to become a little more organised and head further Eastwards too

 

 

The EURO4 model highlights this quite well

 

 

 

Don't give up hope, our chances were never until the early hours of tomorrow morning anyway (5am - 8am) seems to be our greatest chance. 

[alexisj9]

Have we ever had snow from a southwesterly before? It seems highly unlikely, but we will see.

[snowfish1]

A trough will develop later tonight and that'll allow the showers to become a little more organised and head further Eastwards too

 

00_UKMet_Boden+24.gif

 Agree totally mate!

The EURO4 model highlights this quite well

 

1.gif

 

2.gif

 

Don't give up hope, our chances were never until the early hours of tomorrow morning anyway (5am - 8am) seems to be our greatest chance.

[Lampostwatcher]

Temp 3.1 dew p 2.1c

[Nick F]

Trough arrives after midnight, which should push the showers gathering in the SW east across the SE of England in the early hours.

Euro4 perhaps a bit OTT with the snow signal for 06z Weds, 12z UKMO meso looks similar with precip extent, with rain/snow mix for the SE.

Think there's a chance, IMO, for early-up lamppost watchers to see some wet snow in the heavier bursts event a lower levels - though accumulations perhaps reserved to over 150m, say Chilterns, Berkshire Downs, North Downs, South Downs and the High Weald. Perhaps some temporary slushy deposits outside London at lower elevations.

Edited January 13, 2015 by Nick F

[Kent Blizzard]

Most the forecasts/charts go from 5am so why are most of you worrying when that's over 8hrs away? 8hrs in weather terms can mean a lot of changes

Edited January 13, 2015 by Kent Blizzard