Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January

[Daniel*]

what kind of gusts will they get in the mountains ?

150mph onwards I would thought certainly the slopes will be closed for the day

The strongest ever winds in the UK have been recorded on mountains, the strongest ever gust was 150.3 knots (173 mph) recorded at Cairngorm Summit on 20 March 1986.

[Liam J]

what kind of gusts will they get in the mountains ?

Well over 100mph likely! 

 

ECM given a slight downgrade to wind speed potential this evening but it remains very windy. I don't expect any model will have a correct handle on this until at least Wednesday poss Thursday. Each run atm looks different from the last with track & depth, this is a very fluid situation where the models could well struggle with developments especially at 5 days out. 

Thats just insane is that isle of mull in its firing line.

The Western Isles would get hammered if this came off!

[vladthemert]

Thanks Daniel wiki not great accuracy has low level at 142 mph in Fraserburgh, Aberdeenshire 15 feb 1989.

 

Thanks Liam lets hope not for Western islanders sake.

Edited January 4, 2015 by vladthemert

[Mokidugway]

starting to get nervy, although thankfully not in worst area in Scotland, we are now in the red zone, previous runs was orange.   Just seems friday run for the east coast moving further south run after run.

might end up in the ozone if that comes off !!!!..

[Cookie]

Thanks Daniel wiki not great accuracy has low level at 142 mph in Fraserburgh, Aberdeenshire 15 feb 1989.

 

Thanks Liam lets hope not for Western islanders sake.

 

 

Well over 100mph likely! 

 

ECM given a slight downgrade to wind speed potential this evening but it remains very windy. I don't expect any model will have a correct handle on this until at least Wednesday poss Thursday. Each run atm looks different from the last with track & depth, this is a very fluid situation where the models could well struggle with developments especially at 5 days out. 

The Western Isles would get hammered if this came off!

 

 

10 years on anybody?

 

http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id85.html

 

[Daniel*]

Thanks Daniel wiki not great accuracy has low level at 142 mph in Fraserburgh, Aberdeenshire 15 feb 1989.

 

Thanks Liam lets hope not for Western islanders sake.

Subject to change as evident by the latest ECM run; but you'd get the odd *crazy* gust on exposed Cairngorm mountains.

[Zenarcher]

This is where the 12z ECM places the Thursday/Friday storm at 6am on Friday just to the North West of Scotland in a very similar place to where the old GFS model has it along with similar wind speed strengths to the GFS model so it does have a bit of support here,

 

 

The ECM has given Friday nights storm a downgrade,

 

00z Run For Saturday 12am

 

 

12z Run For Saturday 12am

 

Edited January 4, 2015 by weathermaster

[Liam J]

10 years on anybody?

 

http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id85.html

 

Yes and it's nearly 10 years since the storm of Jan 2005 which came before this one by a few days, an emergency weather warning was issued by the Met and gusts reached 100mph at St Bees head, West Cumbria. That was carnage with roofs blown off & chimney stacks blown down and many mature trees were uprooted. 

[Mokidugway]

Remember it well ,lost part of chimney and a100 ft of garden wall at my last house ,sting jet from that beast too ....

[Zenarcher]

10 years on anybody?

 

http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id85.html

 

 

At the time it was the my first winter storm when I lived in the Western Isles back then I wrote about it a few years ago https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71315-january-11th-12th-2005-storm/

[legritter]

10 years on anybody?

 

http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id85.html

 

thankfully now it looks like the most severe of the weather will be much further north ,but at this range it could upgrade further south ,so plenty of interest in the models lets hope from a severe weather point of view our azores high moves further west with time but all data seems to suggest our high will be active for quite a while yet .

[YiRda]

all eyes on the 18z

[Cookie]

Pub run

[Liam J]

18z has the low on a more southerly track and not as deep but still with some extremely strong winds. 

 

Edited January 4, 2015 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

18z has the low on a more southerly track and not as deep but still with some extremely strong winds. 

 

gfs49.pnggfs50.pnggfs51.png

 

Yeah it's a downgrade overall from the 12z run no extremely high mean wind speeds but as you say its more South this time and looking at the gust charts its showing over 80mph for Northern Ireland and Southern Scotland. The newer GFS model seems to have picked up on this storm now but has it a bit weaker still takes the same track though. As for the second low pressure that arrives later on its looking more likely that its going to take a Northerly route and miss the UK all together but still give off some strong winds.

[Mokidugway]

Still looks nasty ,I'll be watching the next few runs pretty intensely !!..

[YiRda]

looks like the more populated areas could be affected by the worst of the winds now

[Zenarcher]

Just looking at the long range forecast from the GFS it has a storm that looks very similar to the 2005 one 10 years ago... would be spooky if it were to actually happen,

 

2005

2015

 

2005

2015

 

2005

2015

[knocker]

Not that good with the GFS but just far enough north

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited January 5, 2015 by knocker

[Liam J]

ECM & UKMO gone down a notch again and not looking as severe Thursday into Friday, normally when this happens the other models GFS in this case will back down as well. Lots to be resolved! But the trend is to back away from a severe storm but still some time to go yet with this one. Wednesday still looking very windy in the N&W with gusts around 60mph or so.

 

 

Edited January 5, 2015 by Liam J

[mistyqueen]

10 years on anybody?

http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id85.html

. Oh yes,I remember it very well! Never heard a racket like that before or since, but that could be about to change! Hopefully it will not be so extreme this time. Damage to property can be fixed,lost lives are much harder to deal with. Edited January 5, 2015 by mistyqueen

[Nick F]

A deep area of low pressure winds up to the west of Iceland later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, its central pressure dropping to around 936mb. A strong jet will lie to the south of this intense depression and will push east then northeast parallel to an active frontal system which will push SE across the UK on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A strong pressure gradient will exist along the frontal system, bringing a spell of very strong winds to the north and west on Wednesday, aided by the strong jet stream. GFS indicates wind gusts of 50-60mph possible around coasts and over hills of the north and west on Wednesday near/along frontal system, perhaps up to 70mph over exposed parts of western Scotland.  The frontal system clears through most areas Wedensday night, with winds easing from the west, though still windy in the NW. However, GFS and ECMWF show a wave develop along the frontal zone before it clears the south of England, bringing a spell of heavy rain Thursday morning before clearing in the afternoon.

 

Thursday will see a drier and sunnier respite before another deep depression moves NE over the Atlantic to bring wet and very windy weather for Friday, this time further south between Iceland and Scotland early Friday. Some uncertainties over exact track and depth. The low deepens Thursday mid-Atlantic in the left exit of a new 200mph jet streak moving out of NE Canada and east over the Atlantic. 06z GFS and 00z ECMWF take the low NE between Faroe islands and Scotland, GFS op deeper at circa 960-962mb, EC a lot shallower at 989mb at 06z on Friday. Should the 06z GFS op solution come off, we could be looking at gusts of 60-70mph across north Wales, N. Ireland, N. England and Scotland. Perhaps 70-80mph across northern and western Scotland, with up to 90mph with exposure in the western Isles. So this could be a powerful winter storm to end the week.

 

GFS

 

 

 

 

ECM:

Edited January 5, 2015 by Nick F

[johnholmes]

Met have changed both depth and position of this system they had in mid Atlantic a couple of days ago. The 'new' track takes it a good deal further north fortunately for the NW of the UK although still very windy for a time, see the sea area gale warnings from them.

[Liam J]

It'll likely be a couple of days before we can be more confident with the track/depth as models are still playing around with a few different solutions, some severe others not so. Haven't been able to look through the ensembles this morning as I'm at work, still a lot of varied solutions being shown?

[Abyss]

So is it pretty much a foregone conclusion that areas away from NW Scotland will miss out on any proper stormy conditions?

Edited January 5, 2015 by -Bomber-