Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January

[Liam J]

Yes Mammatus, some good ingredients coming together out across the Atlantic that can fuel some powerful storms in our part of the world. Interesting week of model watching coming up as this developing situation unfolds. As I mentioned earlier we still have five days or so until we get to the period of interest - plenty of time for changes/upgrades/downgrades although upgrades on current data/charts available seem unlikely as a number of them are as extreme as it gets for the UK already! Any upgrades =     

[hec1]

hopefully it doesn't downgrade because if it does, it'll be nothing but a bog standard Atlantic storm

[Mokidugway]

I hope its ok to ask this here, I take it the chances of this storm dropping aprox 400 miles south are zero as usual ?

with a potential winter storm forecast ,I'd prefer it went 400 miles further north ...

[Skullzrulerz]

Well guys and girls the fun starts here will changes,upgrades and downgrades all the come farther Down the line. Looks like the met office will have a hard time that's for sure.

[Liam J]

The first period of windy weather is due to arrive on Wednesday, nothing severe at this stage though with gusts around 50-60mph. 

 

[Mokidugway]

The first period of windy weather is due to arrive on Wednesday, nothing severe at this stage though with gusts around 50-60mph. 

 

gfs66.pnggfs67.png

not looking like a good week to replace my roof ,will wait it out I think ,but getting fed up of scaffolding now ..

[Liam J]

not looking like a good week to replace my roof ,will wait it out I think ,but getting fed up of scaffolding now ..

I think I'd put the roof replacement on hold this week Moki!! Could be some rough times ahead. 

[Abyss]

Hoping I get a decent storm this week. It's been a while since we had anything of note. Scotland will bear the brunt, hoping it tracks a little further South 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Anyone want to come to the Western Isles on Friday?? Theres a ferry that runs just down the road from me.  

 

 

  Min: 16mph Max: 89mph Gusts: 104mph!!

[johnholmes]

I don't like water that goes up and down other than in a canal lock-thank you for the invite though!

[radiohead]

Mean winds between 90-95 mph at T108 on the GFS with the low west of Scotland. A very powerful storm on this model, but a high degree of uncertainty as there is no agreement with other models on this at the moment.

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Central Scotland could also achieve 80+mph if this comes off due to the funnel effect.

 

.

 

[Cookie]

Anyone want to come to the Western Isles on Friday?? Theres a ferry that runs just down the road from me.  

 

w14207832000406.gif

 

  Min: 16mph Max: 89mph Gusts: 104mph!!

 

I will be already here! 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

I will be already here! 

See you in a few days!!

[Zenarcher]

First few models have updated to their 12z runs and there's a few changes,

 

Old GFS Model - Keeps the first low where it was before arriving on Thursday night into Friday morning bringing very high wind speeds to the North and gusts over 100mph,

 

 

 

 

The second storm that's due to arrive just 24 hours later on Friday into Saturday has been pushed further North this time but looks to still bring widespread 60mph gusts across most of the UK and Ireland,

 

 

 

New GFS Model - On the previous runs it wasn't interested on a storm for Thursday/Friday and on the 12z run it still doesn't form one at all so a massive disagreement there. As for the Friday night into Saturday storm it has been given a push North as well with the worst of the winds missing the UK and Ireland however it still shows on Saturday morning widespread 60 to 70mph gusts,

 

 

 

UKMO - It looks like the Thursday/Friday storm has been given a downgrade from it as well along with the Friday/Saturday storm being pushed further North but still goes for a very windy spell of weather overall,

 

 

GME - Also another one saying no for the Thursday/Friday storm however the Friday/Saturday storm looks very bad for the Northern half of the UK very stormy,

 

Edited January 4, 2015 by weathermaster

[Liam J]

The UKMO charts available for our viewing are spaced 24hrs apart in the later stages, and I think if we could see the charts in between 120 & 144hrs they would show a rapidly deepening storm crossing the north of the UK. At 120hrs in the Atlantic @ 975mb and 24hrs later it's down to 950mb somewhere near Norway. 

 

 

 

GFS control run still keen on a more southerly track bringing extremely windy weather to more of the N/NW.

 

And with a mean like this you know it's going to be a tad windy! A number of the ensembles show some very extreme evolutions.

 

 

Waiting for the 12z NMM to update with interest. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2015 by Liam J

[Daniel*]

If there is going to be no snow, we might as well have a bang!

10th is my mothers birthday we might need to change our plans

Sting Jet territory? possible severe stuff for Scotland, Northern England - especially so for the Hebrides

[radiohead]

Some very nasty perturbations.

 

[Liam J]

Wind gust charts from the 12z NMM model for Thurs/Fri storm. 

 

[Sainsbo]

Not too often you see an area quite this large of "off the chart" gust speeds, even if it is on the GFS and still almost 5 days away..

 

[vladthemert]

starting to get nervy, although thankfully not in worst area in Scotland, we are now in the red zone, previous runs was orange.   Just seems friday run for the east coast moving further south run after run.

[YiRda]

finally looks like we could possibly have some entertaining weather!!

[Liam J]

Max mean 91mph, max gust 112mph!!

 

 

 

[vladthemert]

Max mean 91mph, max gust 112mph!!

 

 

xc1.PNG

 

Thats just insane is that isle of mull in its firing line.

[YiRda]

what kind of gusts will they get in the mountains ?