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Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January


Skullzrulerz

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Is the storm tracking further north than forecast? Hows the 12z looking? I'm at work so can't check :)

Looks further north on the chart BFT posted.

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The beeb are going for the low to get down to 964hpa tomorrow some planes from the USA have landed 1hr to 1hr 30mins early today at London Heathrow because of the strong tailwinds

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30733817

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Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

That shows the baroclinic leaf effect.

It's going to be very bad, the only good news, it's going through quickly

Seem to be closing on the timeline somewhere from 2am until 7am for the worst of it

 

edit: look at the latest radar !! - it's all lining up just to the west of Ireland

Edited by stevofunnelcl
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Xc weather has 90mph winds for Lerwick on Saturday, is this likely?

 

Well not according to the Latest gfs (P) chart but I wouldn't place everything on that as the old GFS is looking in that direction as shown. Keep an eye on the METO updates is the best bet.

post-12275-0-29828000-1420737391_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands

Well not according to the Latest gfs (P) chart but I wouldn't place everything on that as the old GFS is looking in that direction as shown. Keep an eye on the METO updates is the best bet.

Still uncertainty. See what the ECM brings...

The GFS (P) has not been the most reliable model lately.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Still uncertainty. See what the ECM brings...

The GFS (P) has not been the most reliable model lately.

 

I don't think it matters what the ECM brings as the exact position of the second low is critical to what winds you get and that will not be decided on the 12z run. It wasn't the P that is giving the strong winds but old one.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Crazy 24-36hrs or so coming up with storm force winds, rain, snow and blizzards all on the menu!! Breeze starting to pick up here, over the next few hours the wind will pick up quite quickly from the west, widespread gales towards midnight & into the early hours with storm force winds for the far NW. Waiting for the 12z NMM4 to update. 

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Mids & Kent
  • Weather Preferences: snow heat storms and sunshine!
  • Location: Mids & Kent

I imagine they'll be some quick transatlantic flights going west to east tonight/early tomorrow!

hgt300.png

Some very streamlined middle/high level cloud here in the last half hour

200kts+ tailwinds do help when travelling at over 450kts. Not quite so appealing when moving east to west :)

Crazy 24-36hrs or so coming up with storm force winds, rain, snow and blizzards all on the menu!! Breeze starting to pick up here, over the next few hours the wind will pick up quite quickly from the west, widespread gales towards midnight & into the early hours with storm force winds for the far NW. Waiting for the 12z NMM4 to update.

Appreciate the updates Liam, not least live and direct reports. Ever thought of moving nearer Stornaway lol. Edited by snow..chance
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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

200kts+ tailwinds do help when travelling at over 450kts. Not quite so appealing when moving east to west :)

Appreciate the updates Liam, not least live and direct reports. Ever thought of moving nearer Stornaway lol.

 

Yeah, quite a large number of the E to W's travelled up over Greenland today, routing so that they missed the strong tailwinds.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

200kts+ tailwinds do help when travelling at over 450kts. Not quite so appealing when moving east to west :)

Appreciate the updates Liam, not least live and direct reports. Ever thought of moving nearer Stornaway lol.

 

this link is quite good for its presentation, direct out of GFS but it does quite often seem to fit UK Met predictions at reasonably close time frames; just type in your location or a main one nearest to you.

done it for Lewis

http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/flesherin

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

Made this map up showing the highest wind speeds for each area according to the Met Office Weather Map,

 

attachicon.giftopwindforecast.png

God dammit!! Why do I always between the lines where I live!!! lol. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands

I don't think it matters what the ECM brings as the exact position of the second low is critical to what winds you get and that will not be decided on the 12z run. It wasn't the P that is giving the strong winds but old one.

True, not sure what to make of it really. I expect it to be a non-event here.

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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

K5 buoy is one to keep an eye on tonight, centre of the low should pass nearby http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=64045

Later on in the night as the centre moves eastwards, K7 will be one to watch http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=64046

 

Pressure falling rapidly at K5 now, 993.7mb and tendency is -4.9mb. Will be interesting to see how low this one gets

Edited by Mesosphere
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

K5 buoy is one to keep an eye on tonight, centre of the low should pass nearby http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=64045

Later on in the night as the centre moves eastwards, K7 will be one to watch http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=64046

 

Pressure falling rapidly at K5 now, 993.7mb and tendency is -4.9mb. Will be interesting to see how low this one gets

 

GFS 12z puts average speeds for K5 Buoy at 82mph for 12am tonight but it doesn't seem to be reporting wind speeds now so we might not get any wind reading from it :(

Edited by weathermaster
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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Warm summer evenings
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian, Scotland

GFS 12z puts average speeds for K5 Buoy at 82mph for 12am tonight but it doesn't seem to be reporting wind speeds now so we might not get any wind reading from it :(

 

Yeah Sean shame about that, there's also ship reports that might come in during the night. Some appear to be showing windspeeds http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=59.070N&lon1=11.420W&uom=M&dist=450

 

One at 58.70 -15.70 reporting a -8.7mb drop in pressure. Currently 983mb

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Meteocentre 6pm analysis chart puts it at 968mb with the help of a nearby buoy.

12Z GFS had it at 975mb at 6pm, 12Z GFS(P) had it at 980mb.

Already quite a bit deeper than forecast if the readings are correct. 

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