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Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January


Skullzrulerz

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

So, when will we know if a sting jet is predicted? 12 hours before, 6 hours? anyone know?

Hi,

Famous example, The famous ‘Great Storm’ cut a swathe of damage across South-east England in the early hours of the 16th October 1987. It was a good example of a storm with a ’Sting Jet’.

Worth a read :good:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

wow poor Scotland

 

2nd system wants to just knock you when your down.

 

Some wicked ensembles

 

gens-15-1-60.png

 

gens-8-1-60.png

 

gens-12-1-66.png


Also definite slight trend south with track of 1st low which could bring more built up areas into play

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Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

Hi,

Famous example, The famous ‘Great Storm’ cut a swathe of damage across South-east England in the early hours of the 16th October 1987. It was a good example of a storm with a ’Sting Jet’.

Worth a read :good:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF

Or here: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00126.1

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

So, when will we know if a sting jet is predicted? 12 hours before, 6 hours? anyone know?

3-6 hours considered nowcasting, ingredients are there. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

Paul Hudson on yorkshire weather says widespread gusts to 70 mph especially west and south yorks. The whole yorks region will take a reasonable pasting. The potential here is overshadowed by the severity up scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

If people want to see some incredible synoptics check out the 18z ensembles.

 

We are really in for a pretty crazy spell of weather; very high winds, snow, hail, rain, squalls... you name it, it's on the way over the next 5-10 days.

 

And increasingly southern areas will become at risk of storms.

 

One thing is certain the weather will be making headlines over the next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Carnoustie Angus Scotland. (week days) Dundee (weekends)
  • Location: Carnoustie Angus Scotland. (week days) Dundee (weekends)

Wow i'm in yellow warning area, but being in the wee nook on east coast it looks worse with every model update!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands

I have a feeling the predicted 100mph gust will be the exception rather than the rule if it even occurs at all. Nevertheless, storm form gusts are expected and its one I am interested in. 

 

Saturday's low looks less severe although on the GFS 18Z, Shetland could be even harder hit.

Yes, the 18z really batters Shetland with the second low.

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Posted
  • Location: Mids & Kent
  • Weather Preferences: snow heat storms and sunshine!
  • Location: Mids & Kent

Yes, ouch! Can only imagine chatter amongst the Scandinavian forecasters and alike..

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Posted
  • Location: Mids & Kent
  • Weather Preferences: snow heat storms and sunshine!
  • Location: Mids & Kent

I have an unease about this one. Lets see what tomorrow brings.

Really will be a case of cancelling or re arranging all none essential journeys, during the worst anyway. Maybe get in a few extras bits in the larder beforehand, not panic buy mind! Here's hoping a healthy dose of common sense prevails, which I'm sure the vast majority will take heed of.

Good to have members in all corners of the country if I'm honest. All reports welcomed.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

Really will be a case of cancelling or re arranging all none essential journeys, during the worst anyway. Maybe get in a few extras bits in the larder beforehand, not panic buy mind! Here's hoping a healthy dose of common sense prevails, which I'm sure the vast majority will take heed of.

Good to have members in all corners of the country if I'm honest. All reports welcomed.

People love to panic buy here mental they go

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Coldly
  • Location: Methil, Fife

The 00z GFS run showing no signs of weakning the storm. Meto need to get the red warnings out very soon for most of scotland by the look of this.post-23079-0-40390200-1420689668_thumb.p

 

Early morning travel should be avoided, the track has strengthened southward

18z run.....

post-23079-0-69032000-1420689816_thumb.p

 

00z run.......

post-23079-0-71296900-1420689848_thumb.p

 

Take cover! Incoming!

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

Very worrying! I'm in the amber zone, like Cookie. Yes, we have plenty of storms up here, but this one looks like it'll be on a par with the storm of January 11th 2005. That was horrendous. No power for four days then, but I'm as well prepared as I can be, currently charging batteries for lanterns and have oil lamps too. I may need to claim insurance for freezer contents if the power is off for a prolonged period, as I did ten years ago! If that's the worst that happens, heck, I can live with that! Please take care everyone, it's going to be rather nasty out there over the next few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Latest METO fax charts. It's going to be a rough ride, albeit briefly for those in the far north. Keep an eye on any METO updates. 

post-12275-0-66546700-1420696426_thumb.g

post-12275-0-13679800-1420696434_thumb.g

post-12275-0-83878200-1420696441_thumb.g

Edited by Paul
Removed un-needed, personal comments.
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Overnight runs continue in the same vein with little change, perhaps a bit further north on some outputs. Anyone in the areas that are likely to be the hardest hit be sensible and take precautions, it's going to be an extreme period of weather albeit short lived, thankfully. 

 

ECM 00z

 

post-9615-0-56652000-1420700342_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

The track has actually quite clearly moved north overnight, not further south.

 

To do with the storm developing more quickly.

 

The EURO4 has moved away from a wide band of damaging winds on the 12z to a thinner band further north on the 0z

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

I am quite surprised there is no rain warning for southern areas today, maybe met taking eye off ball?

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

The second storm (not as powerful as tonight) looks like it'll bring the strongest winds to the N Isles however the Euro4 does indicate there could be a zone of very strong winds moving in from the west affecting areas further south, mean speeds of 45-55mph. 

 

post-9615-0-52029900-1420702597_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

I am quite surprised there is no rain warning for southern areas today, maybe met taking eye off ball?

I haven't seen anything across the models to suggest a warning should be in place to cover rainfall? 

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Other than the slight shift northwards on some of the models there hasn't been much of a downgrade overnight. 0z GFS(P) still showing a huge swathe of >93mph gusts over N Scotland, and the GFS and NMM still showing widespread gusts of 80mph with gusts of 100mph+ for NW Scotland. Next few runs will be crucial, it will be interesting to see if they continue with the northward trend. It still looks very dangerous.

 

24-289PUK.GIF?08-0

 

 

 

Either way, I bet kite sales are up today. (Stay safe everyone!)

Edited by Sainsbo
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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

Looking at XC and Met office they have eased down a little on the highest gusts they are expecting last night they where going for over 100 mph today its more between 80 to 90 mph. 

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