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Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January


Skullzrulerz

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Early warning for train passengers Thursday evening to Saturday evening

 

High winds are forecast across Scotland from the evening of Thursday 8 until Saturday 10 January.  The situation is being monitored by Network Rail and the train operators for any possible effect on train services.

 

East Coast

 

East Coast have not yet made any alterations to services during the expected period of bad weather, but as a precaution, passengers booked to travel on routes north of Edinburgh (stations to and from Aberdeen and Inverness) and on the East Coast service between Edinburgh and Glasgow Central may travel on Thursday 8 January if possible, or contact East Coast's Customer Relations Team on 03457 225225 for help with arranging an alternative travel date.

 

Scotrail

 

The overnight sleeper from London Euston to Fort William on Thursday night / Friday morning and from Fort William to London Euston on Friday evening / Saturday morning will only run between London Euston and Edinburgh.  Alternative transport will be available, or customers may request a refund.

 

Some services may be affected due to the high winds and passengers with advance tickets for travel on routes to or from Oban, Mallaig, Fort William, Inverness, Wick or Kyle of Lochalsh on Friday 9 or Saturday 10 January may travel on Thursday instead.

 

http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/today.aspx

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Wish I was in the amber but yellow for now.

For now...Warnings will be under close scrutiny throughout the next 24-48hrs and normally update between 11am-12pm but given the severity and impacts associated with the storms expect the unexpected as new data is received. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

This is low res output showing gusts of 100-110mph for the northwest fringes of Scotland, higher res will sharpen that to more like 120mph..... pretty serious stuff

Edited by Matty M
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Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands

Something just doesn't feel right about how intense these storms are. I would be surprised if they are not downgraded or move north overnight. 110mph is very high and unusual even for northern Scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

Looks like mainly Scotland event i have already warned my grand parents.

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

For now...Warnings will be under close scrutiny throughout the next 24-48hrs and normally update between 11am-12pm but given the severity and impacts associated with the storms expect the unexpected as new data is received. 

Yeah. I think the storm will move further south every run, just a feeling though. I'm thinking the amber area may be widened and also include a red warning within it because with 100mph+ looking likely with anyone in the firing line, theres bound to be one issued regardless of the area of the UK being worst hit.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Each update seems to be edging the very strong gusts ever so further south with time, N Ireland gusts over 80mph, 80mph into SW Scotland and likely howling through the Central belt being funnelled.  Based on the latest 18z update I would extend the amber warning area to cover much of Scotland at least down to the Central belt if not further south and have a yellow warning south of the border over N England with gusts of 70-75mph, N & W Scotland could well be under a red warning by this time tomorrow with gusts into the 100's! 

 

Some intense gusts right down Eastern Scotland fringing into the far N/NE of England on this run. 

post-9615-0-18545600-1420667949_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-49112000-1420667954_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-92376200-1420667961_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: East Ayrshire 190m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Non Destructive Near My House
  • Location: East Ayrshire 190m ASL

Lets hope it stays north. Im in the yellow region for now and that's how I'd like it to stay. Happy to watch this one on the telly.

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Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes

Something just doesn't feel right about how intense these storms are. I would be surprised if they are not downgraded or move north overnight. 110mph is very high and unusual even for northern Scotland.

 

I looked at earth wind model, looks like it  will interact with strong storm off Greenland.  Models suggests it feeds off it this and suggest it get much stronger ass it passes near Iceland.   Time will tell if they are right

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

Each update seems to be edging the very strong gusts ever so further south with time, N Ireland gusts over 80mph, 80mph into SW Scotland and likely howling through the Central belt being funnelled.  Based on the latest 18z update I would extend the amber warning area to cover much of Scotland at least down to the Central belt if not further south and have a yellow warning south of the border, N & W Scotland could well be under a red warning by this time tomorrow with gusts into the 100's! 

 

Some intense gusts right down Eastern Scotland fringing into the far N/NE of England on this run. 

attachicon.gifgfs137.pngattachicon.gifgfs138.pngattachicon.gifgfs139.png

Dream storm that would be, beats snow anyday. Bring it on! :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Caithness
  • Location: Caithness

Stay safe Helen!! Very rough ride ahead!

Shaping up to be a proper hoolie. West is a good direction for my location though at least. Netweather has top gust forecast for friday morning here at 87mph. Id like to hope it doesnt go any higher... that is for sure!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

GFS(P) even stronger through the Central belt.

 

post-9615-0-28602100-1420669196_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

If this keeps going then this thread will be very, very lively tomorrow!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Anywhere in the red shading expect some disruption, exceptional conditions for much of Scotland with major impacts to infrastructure likely within the dark red wind fields.

 

post-9615-0-65511900-1420669629_thumb.gipost-9615-0-59203500-1420669640_thumb.gipost-9615-0-62000900-1420669651_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

@FergieExeter have been suggesting it for a few runs now. Looks v threatening indeed reply to Chance of a sting jet NW Scotland Thursday night/Friday morning?

Sting jets are really unpredictable & dangerous!

post-19153-0-96645300-1420670441_thumb.j

Totally fills the bill ^

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I have a feeling the predicted 100mph gust will be the exception rather than the rule if it even occurs at all. Nevertheless, storm form gusts are expected and its one I am interested in. 

 

Saturday's low looks less severe although on the GFS 18Z, Shetland could be even harder hit.

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

So, when will we know if a sting jet is predicted? 12 hours before, 6 hours? anyone know?

We may not know until an hour or less before it, they are very unpredictable so doesn't give many people a chance to react/prepare.

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