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Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January

Skullzrulerz

By Skullzrulerz
in Storms & Severe Weather

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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

Very heavy rain and strong winds all day, all 3 rivers on flood alert, however I've visited all 3 Rivers and they look normal, so I can only assume that there has been a significant amount of rainfall over higher ground

Strangely enough, the Environment Agency has been dumping water as fast as possible through the River Soar sluices since yesterday, levels are normal. Perhaps they are making way for what is forecast over the next 5 days/.

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Thunder Snow Accomplished

Thunder Snow

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle
Posted

Strangely enough, the Environment Agency has been dumping water as fast as possible through the River Soar sluices since yesterday, levels are normal. Perhaps they are making way for what is forecast over the next 5 days/.

Perhaps but they should state so in there warnings

Current status:Flood AlertFlood AlertFlood status last changed at 15:22 on 07 Jan 2015Location:River Eden and its tributaries from its confluence with the River Irthing through Crosby-on-Eden and Carlisle to the Solway Firth at Rockcliffe

View map of Flood Alert area

Region:NorthwestLatest Information:

Over last 24 hours there has been heavy rainfall throughout Cumbria. This has caused river levels to rise throught the day. The rainfall is expected to reduce during the early evening. However, river levels are expected to continue to rise throughout the night. We will continue to monitor the situation.

15:22 on 07 Jan 2015

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Cookie Aficionado

Cookie

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
Posted

Good stuff, many people will get a big shock when these wind strengths hit, especially those who aren't weather aware and try to go about normal business! Hope everyone stays safe through this period of weather. 

 

its going to be a rough ride we have hit 70 mph today alone! 

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Is there any chance that tomorrows low could still push slightly South bringing NI more in line with the worst of it?

While it's not yet set in stone the precise track the storm will take I think the models are in good agreement, I don't expect any major shifts although further minor adjustments can't be ruled out over the next 24hrs. As it stands N Ireland looks set to get gusts towards 70-75mph maybe more on the extreme N coast, places like Malin Head for example could record some big gusts for a time.

Edited by Liam J
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Not in London so zero :) Them Scots are used to it.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Wouldn't be surprised to see a warning issued further south given the latest 12z guidance, Certainly from Lancashire northwards as the GFS 12z has gusts of 75mph for exposed Irish Sea locations and in excess of 60-65mph across land over N England. 

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

Edited by Liam J
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stevofunnelcl Aficionado

stevofunnelcl

Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
Posted

Sadly, the worst of the conditions look to hit during hours of darkness, which is always a challenge when it comes to video footage

Hurricane Force winds is likely to cause power cuts too

Also, the mountain top usually register very high wind speeds during these storms. A chance for wind records to be broken

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

What do you guys reckon are the chances of a code red tomorrow?

Pretty high I think, if the current model trend remains the same overnight then a localised red warning is possible for the areas that are predicted to experience 90-100mph gusts. I think If the storm was tracking further south into more densely populated areas then definitely.  

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Jo Farrow Veteran

Jo Farrow

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
Posted

Once a Met Office red warning is issued, it essentially means STAY INDOORS. It can't be issued too early. If it comes it will be prob. be around 6pm thursday evening to cover the night, catch the News (hopefully), and allow people to get home first, in and then know not to venture out at all. For N and W Scotland it's just a case of making sure everyone knows.

 

daytime reds are much harder as the impact can be huge, and pressure intense. like the one for the Central Belt with bawbags. or St Judes, telling all the London trains to be cancelled.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Not in London so zero :) Them Scots are used to it.

No need for this... really does irritate me. Bear in mind London has a population over 8 million and the average, Londoner really does not much grip when it comes to very windy weather, yes the scots are used to it but this friday its not a standard affair. And has the potential to catch people out.

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radiohead Experienced

radiohead

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
Posted

12Z ECMWF at 33 hours has sustained winds (well out at sea at this point) peaking at 107 mph.

 

That is just 4mph shy of the minimum sustained winds for major hurricane status classification in the tropics. A very potent low indeed.

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Zenarcher Seasoned

Zenarcher

Posted
Posted

Looking through the models the new GFS model seems to be the odd one. It has the low slightly more South than every single other model.

 

The ECM has handled it over the past 24 hours well with little to no changes here's then 3am Friday wind chart showing 60 to 70mph mean wind speeds (purple area),

 

post-6686-0-56291200-1420658057_thumb.pn

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

Dare I say those two fateful words? Sting jet?

If only there was a chart between 36 and 48hrs..

post-15177-0-03562400-1420658010_thumb.g

I wouldn't like to make a call on a red warning but I have a feeling that things are heading towards something significant.

Perfect opportunity to keep watching the satellite imagery intently tomorrow/Friday. A clear, dry slot should appear as it starts to ramp up.

Edited by Mapantz
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Latest FAX Chart for 00z Friday, low deeper than the previous Fax for the same time, violent storm force 11 to hurricane force 12 from that tightly wrapped core. Severe Gales over N England & S/SE Scotland as the front moves through. 

 

post-9615-0-01257100-1420658309_thumb.gi

 

 

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Gazza H Rookie

Gazza H

Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Coldly
  • Location: Methil, Fife
Posted

post-23079-0-21634300-1420658909_thumb.p Not a patch on what the West are experiencing but fairly strong wind speeds and some strong gusts experienced in the firth of forth over the last few hours.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Taken from Simon Cardy's Twitter page, Euro4 showing gusts around 130mph!! Euro4 overdoing it a tad?!

 

post-9615-0-47633900-1420659197_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Jo Farrow Veteran

Jo Farrow

Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
Posted

http://www.forthroadbridge.org/weather

 

Wind procedure for Forth Road bridge, bearing in mind Westerly Gales funnelling through central Belt early on Friday

quite interesting

Closes completely at > G80mph, wouldn't fancy driving a car across at > G65mph myself

 

Closed to double deckers at the mo anyway

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

A real serious situation developing for northern Scotland, at least they are somewhat used to it, if this system was to hit further south there would be major issues.

 

Will be interesting to see what winds will be recorded.

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