Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January

[radiohead]

The first low looks more intense but is a good bit further north than the 06z. Still looking pretty nasty for the North of Scotland and the Western Isles!

 

The windfield is more intense and extends over a wider area though as the result of the low being stronger on this run.

 

[Paul]

Latest from Jo on the potential for storm force winds..

 

https://vimeo.com/116156079

[radiohead]

12Z GFS(P) is also more intense compared to the previous run. Large area of >93mph gusts on this model.

 

Edited January 7, 2015 by radiohead

[Richie V]

That is quite a marked change at only 30 hours in. This must be a classic example of explosive cyclogenesis?

Just makes you wonder what little GEM the 18z will come up with!

There's a pun in there somewhere.

[knocker]

Well the GFS (P) 12z has completely altered it's take on the second low ( very good for the Shetlands) so from here on in far better to stick to the METO and the fax. And  the NW team of course.

Edited January 7, 2015 by knocker

[Sainsbo]

I can't remember seeing such a large area of off the chart windspeeds (at least in the reliable timeframe). The entire black area is >93mph, there could be some serious damage.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a red warning issued for parts of Scotland sometime in the day tomorrow, providing we don't see dowgrades.

 

Edited January 7, 2015 by Sainsbo

[shetland islands]

Well the GFS (P) 12z has completely altered it's take on the second low ( very good for the Shetlands) so from here on in far better to stick to the METO and the fax. And  the NW team of course.

What do you mean, is it missing us now?

[Liam J]

People in the Amber warning area need to make plans, be ready for extreme weather with power outages also signifcant structural damage is possible. Warn others, poss rearrange travel plans etc. Thankfully the worst of the winds will hit during the overnight period so not as many people will be out and about.

[snow..chance]

As I mentioned earlier on, amber alerts now in force for the far NW. Gusts nudging 100mph could warrant a red perhaps nearer the time or should the need arise. Admittadily an area quite used to ferocious gales and storms, where the focus for the next batch of disturbed weather continues for now. Next week still throwing up several more deep lows to potentially slam in, riding on a supercharged jet stream, no doubt more on those as time progresses. Fair to say plenty to be keeping watch on for the next few days and beyond.

[matty40s]

Saturdays warnings have just been altered/reduced drastically!!!!!!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420848000

[knocker]

What do you mean, is it missing us now?

 

Not exactly but the chart now looks like this and six hours later you will be in a blustery NW.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

[Mokidugway]

Yes ,blustery showers the order of the day ,a blessing really ....

[Richie V]

Saturdays warnings have just been altered/reduced drastically!!!!!!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420848000

A little risky in my opinion, 12z severe gale wind field is from north mids northward.

[Mapantz]

Certainly a wider area of 80mph+ gusts on both the GFS and GFS-P.

The NMM 4 is as close a solution I can see to the Euro 4, although the E4 has a central pressure of 960mb

[Liam J]

Despite the warning being removed further south over England/Wales it still looks very windy indeed with disruption possible, a bit surprising no yellow warning in place. The focus is definitely on Scotland though with some exceptional wind speeds being predicted.

 

GFS(P) charts Thurs/Fri.

 

Fri/Sat

 

[Thunder Snow]

Very heavy rain and strong winds all day, all 3 rivers on flood alert, however I've visited all 3 Rivers and they look normal, so I can only assume that there has been a significant amount of rainfall over higher ground

[Cookie]

People in the Amber warning area need to make plans, be ready for extreme weather with power outages also signifcant structural damage is possible. Warn others, poss rearrange travel plans etc. Thankfully the worst of the winds will hit during the overnight period so not as many people will be out and about.

I am letting people know my western isles weather Facebook page and informing as many people as I can

[Liam J]

12z NMM4 updated for tomorrow night, really worrying wind speeds being predicted. Very windy for many especially N England northwards and then you get to N/NW Scotland!! A swathe of damaging winds sweeping eastwards these transferring to NE Scotland by early Friday morning, expect high impacts from this causing all sorts of problems. In fact a life threatening storm, sorry but it has to be said! 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2015 by Liam J

[Liam J]

I am letting people know my western isles weather Facebook page and informing as many people as I can

Good stuff, many people will get a big shock when these wind strengths hit, especially those who aren't weather aware and try to go about normal business! Hope everyone stays safe through this period of weather. 

[Skullzrulerz]

Has the Storm for tomorrow been upgraded? Haven't herd of anyone saying that its upgraded or downgraded lately???

Edited January 7, 2015 by Skulltheruler

[Liam J]

12z euro4 charts - Mean speeds KM/H off the scale!

 

Edited January 7, 2015 by Liam J

[Thunder Snow]

12z NMM4 updated for tomorrow night, really worrying wind speeds being predicted. Very windy for many especially N England northwards and then you get to N/NW Scotland!! A swathe of damaging winds sweeping eastwards these transferring to NE Scotland by early Friday morning, expect high impacts from this causing all sorts of problems. In fact a life threatening storm, sorry but it has to be said! 

 

 

nmm16.pngnmm17.pngnmm18.pngnmm19.pngnmm20.pngnmm21.pngnmm22.png

Think the met need to update there warnings again lol, what about rain. With these 2 system

[Liam J]

Think the met need to update there warnings again lol, what about rain. With these 2 system

Rain will be an additional hazard but the winds are the main talking point in the next 48hrs, the weather fronts will be moving through pretty fast!

[shetland islands]

There might be a last minute downgrade overnight or a shift north as is often the case with these lows.

[Abyss]

Is there any chance that tomorrows low could still push slightly South bringing NI more in line with the worst of it?