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Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January

Skullzrulerz

By Skullzrulerz
in Storms & Severe Weather

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vladthemert Enthusiast

vladthemert

Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes
Posted (edited)

Knocker that second chart that looks me might create storm surge in the North Sea.  Am I reading this wrong

 

Mapantz Scotland could soon create a bondi beach if we keep getting phenominal waves just shame weather not as warm. 

Edited by vladthemert
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Amber wind warning

 

Issued at: 1046 on Wed 7 Jan 2015

Valid from: 2200 on Thu 8 Jan 2015

Valid to: 1200 on Fri 9 Jan 2015

 

A vigorous depression is expected to run rapidly east passing northern Scotland on Thursday night and Friday morning. Winds will begin to increase late on Thursday to give a period of very strong westerly winds across the Western Isles, the north and northwest of the Scottish mainland and Orkney. Gusts of 80 to 90 mph are likely quite widely with a risk of gusts of over 100 mph in places. Winds should quickly ease from the west during the day. The public should be prepared for the potential for disruption to transport as well as power supplies and the possibility of structural damage. Very large waves may also lead to dangerous conditions along some coasts.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A vigorous depression is expected to develop over the Atlantic during Thursday in association with a very strong jet stream. The depression is likely to run rapidly east northeast to pass northern Scotland early on Friday bringing a brief period of very strong winds to many northern areas of Britain. Confidence has increased in the track of the system, and also the strength and location of the strongest winds. Some significant impacts are likely, and this warning has now been upgraded to Amber. A separate Yellow warning covers other parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

 

Updated yellow warning

 

Issued at: 1131 on Wed 7 Jan 2015

Valid from: 2200 on Thu 8 Jan 2015

Valid to: 1200 on Fri 9 Jan 2015

 

A vigorous depression is expected to run rapidly east, passing northern Scotland early on Friday. This is likely to give a period of very strong westerly winds across much of Scotland and northern coastal areas of Northern Ireland on Thursday night and during Friday morning. Gusts of 60-70 mph are likely quite widely. The strongest winds are expected to affect the Western Isles, Orkney and northern and northwestern parts of the mainland, and a separate Amber warning covers these areas. Winds should quickly ease from the west in the morning. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption, for example to transport and power supplies.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A vigorous depression is expected to develop over the Atlantic during Thursday in association with a very strong jet stream. The depression is likely to run rapidly east northeast to pass northern Scotland early on Friday bringing a brief period of very strong winds to many northern areas of Britain. There is now more confidence in the track and timing of this system, and the strongest winds are covered in an associated Amber warning. However, gusts of 60 to 70 mph still bring the potential for some localised wind damage and disruption and the public should keep up to date with the latest warnings.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420675200&regionName=uk

 

Saturday's warnings remains unchanged for now

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shetland islands Contributor

shetland islands

Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
Posted

Yes it's this second storm that will impact you the most.

Charts weatherbell

What kinda wind speeds it that for Shetland on Saturday?

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

Knocker that second chart that looks me might create storm surge in the North Sea.  Am I reading this wrong

 

Mapantz Scotland could soon create a bondi beach if we keep getting phenominal waves just shame weather not as warm. 

 

I think not vlad as the wind are mostly just north of west and it is moving very quickly and 12 hours later it's in the Baltic and conditions are relatively benign in the North Sea.

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vladthemert Enthusiast

vladthemert

Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes
Posted

I think not vlad as the wind are mostly just north of west and it is moving very quickly and 12 hours later it's in the Baltic and conditions are relatively benign in the North Sea.

 

Thanks Knocker glad to hear.

 

Going to be wild 7/8 days

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

Thanks Knocker glad to hear.

 

Going to be wild 7/8 days

 

Well the one good thing about these storms is the speed they are moving although of course that could lead to a short period of very intense weather.

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Nouska Accomplished

Nouska

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
Posted

What kinda wind speeds it that for Shetland on Saturday?

 

ECM 10 metre wind speeds for both Friday and Saturday.

 

ecm0125_djup_100uv_2015010700_054.jpg  ecm0125_djup_100uv_2015010700_078.jpg

 

Fast and furious would be an accurate description!

 

Charts courtesy of Icelandic Met Office.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Not often you see the Met forecasting gusts of over 100mph!! Looks like an exceptional weather event. I see the warnings have been removed further South for Saturday. Still a degree of uncertainty for the second system, small waves/secondary systems increasing the wind flow won't be picked up until nearer the time.

Edited by Liam J
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shetland islands Contributor

shetland islands

Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
Posted (edited)

ECM 10 metre wind speeds for both Friday and Saturday.

ecm0125_djup_100uv_2015010700_054.jpgecm0125_djup_100uv_2015010700_078.jpg

Fast and furious would be an accurate description!

Charts courtesy of Icelandic Met Office.

Thanks, yes it does look windy....although it is not unusual to see 90mph up here as it happens most winters. The sea swell looks very rough for Shetland on Saturday. Edited by shetland islands
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Richie V Enthusiast

Richie V

Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
Posted

Not often you see the Met forecasting gusts of over 100mph!! Looks like an exceptional weather event. I see the warnings have been removed further South for Saturday. Still a degree of uncertainty for the second system, small waves/secondary systems increasing the wind flow won't be picked up until nearer the time.

will it happen though? According to the forecast on xc weather for my locale, the 06Z says it should be gusting 53mph here. 17.8 mph is the max here in the last hour with a mean of 7.3 mph. Gone a little wayward i'd say?
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

will it happen though? According to the forecast on xc weather for my locale, the 06Z says it should be gusting 53mph here. 17.8 mph is the max here in the last hour with a mean of 7.3 mph. Gone a little wayward i'd say?

Been pretty accurate for my location so far with gusts into the 50's. The strongest winds will be just ahead of the cold front and as it moves through. So you may see an increase in wind speeds this afternoon, depending on your location/exposure.

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Richie V Enthusiast

Richie V

Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
Posted (edited)

Been pretty accurate for my location so far with gusts into the 50's. The strongest winds will be just ahead of the cold front and as it moves through. So you may see an increase in wind speeds this afternoon, depending on your location/exposure.

hope so, west facing top of a ridge, 330 ft. We usually do very well. Edited by Richie V
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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted (edited)

Latest EURO4 has sustained winds of 85mph for coastal parts of northern Scotland early Friday, yes SUSTAINED hurricane force winds

A real battering. I hope some news crews make the trip so we can see the full wrath of the storm from the sheltered southeast.

Edited by Matty M
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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

will it happen though? According to the forecast on xc weather for my locale, the 06Z says it should be gusting 53mph here. 17.8 mph is the max here in the last hour with a mean of 7.3 mph. Gone a little wayward i'd say?

Less exposure to sw winds? Gusting to 25mph down here and my anemometer doesn't pick up the best gusts from the sw due to houses and other obstructions.

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vladthemert Enthusiast

vladthemert

Posted
  • Location: cleethorpes
  • Location: cleethorpes
Posted (edited)

I have zero obsticle the direction wind we getting 15 to 20 mph  and 38 mph gusts so far.   Should be 49 mph gusts not really far off.   Could be they may got time frame wrong as the storm not moving fast as anticipated.

Edited by vladthemert
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Gazza H Rookie

Gazza H

Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Coldly
  • Location: Methil, Fife
Posted

You guys are probably already familiar with this website but thought I would post a link Incase some are not. Good real time weather from the various weather stations  http://www.mmweather.net/page/maps?regionid=7 I work at Braefootbay and use this to determine shipping berths, cancelations etc. Most of the weather stations are in exposed areas so will show the true extent of the upcoming storms.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

At 30 hours, the low is 20mb more intense on the 12Z GFS than the 06Z......

Really?! I'm at work so can't view charts atm. Which low are you referring to?

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Stormeh Accomplished

Stormeh

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
Posted

The first low looks more intense but is a good bit further north than the 06z. Still looking pretty nasty for the North of Scotland and the Western Isles!

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Ian Suffolk Rookie

Ian Suffolk

Posted
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summers, Snowy Winters
  • Location: Lowestoft, Suffolk
Posted

That is quite a marked change at only 30 hours in. This must be a classic example of explosive cyclogenesis?

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Zephyr Community Regular

Zephyr

Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
Posted

12z GFS(P) has the low down to 966mb at +36

 

36-515PUK.GIF?07-12

 

Wind Gusting well over 93+mph 

 

36-289PUK.GIF?07-12

 

39-289PUK.GIF?07-12

 

:help:

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