Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January

[Liam J]

GFS P still going for mega storm to approach the UK around next Wednesday, could be a long few days if this keeps getting progged

 

Hard to take anything too seriously at this juncture though but potential for something exceptional

 

Yes Matty and the track is much the same as per the 12z run, usually at this range they chop and change each run. One to watch certainly but the ECM wasn't having any of it on the 12z. Not unusual to see such storms like this out of the reliable time frame only to get downgraded. 

[YiRda]

It'll probably be downgraded in the next run, then more downgrades after and after that, typical gfs lol

[Zenarcher]

The Atlantic really is in full power at the moment with the raging jet stream helping matters. Tomorrow will also be a windy day across the West and North 50 to 60mph gusts are possible. Then we have Friday Saturday Sunday and maybe even Monday being very windy.

 

Then next week we have this huge storm that the new GFS model keeps bringing up,

 

[Zephyr]

Down to 936mb on the 18z, 8mb deeper than 12z.. Dunno why I am comparing mb difference now this won't verify this strong I don't think.

 

 

If it's still here, say, Sunday/Monday I will be a little worried.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Zephyr

[Daniel*]

Forecasters headache, red warning I would thought, for densely populated areas.

Bear in mind this is what - 8/9 days away however we are getting some consistency from the GFSP

15th In the past few days, has shown the 'big' one ECM... Not having it, who will be right?.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Daniel*

[Cookie]

Can we have separate threads for this weekends storms and future ones please?

[snow..chance]

Can't see why at the moment, as both are still up for further analysis. Potential room remains for plenty more chopping and changing yet nothing to say upgrades may supersede downgrades. Let's give it until Sunday PM at least.

[Cookie]

we are getting a mish mash of the both and when we get closer to the weekend this thread will explode with weekend stuff. 

[vladthemert]

Forecasters headache, red warning I would thought, for densely populated areas.

Bear in mind this is what - 8/9 days away however we are getting some consistency from the GFSP

15th In the past few days, has shown the 'big' one ECM... Not having it, who will be right?.

image.jpgimage.jpg

 

right bullseye here    Got hope it downgrades just glad its too far to be accurate.   

 

Are all these storms feeding each other

Edited January 6, 2015 by vladthemert

[snow..chance]

we are getting a mish mash of the both and when we get closer to the weekend this thread will explode with weekend stuff.

Know exactly what you're saying, my point remains both are still up for debate as to accuracy, strength, actual track etc etc. - until we pin down the first potential storm the second is pardon the pun, still pretty much in second place. I think the second possible low shall perhaps or more than likely be discussed (no surprises) during next weekends episode or nearer the time? Does bring back a few reminders to some points last year and given the latest, no escaping that and in my humblest opinion. Plenty more to watch out for as the next phase of Winter 2014/15 beckons.

[Liam J]

00z still tracking the storm first storm slightly further south with a broader area of extreme winds, which could affect the far N of Ireland. Very windy for many N areas Thursday into Friday. The really violent winds for Scotland with gusts in excess of 90mph. 

 

UKMO take on Friday & Saturday.

 

 

Saturday - GFS(P) gusts in excess of 70mph further south.

 

GEFS broadly agree on track for Thursday night into Friday with slight variations in track which is crucial to just exactly where the core of damaging winds impact. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=48

 

ECM Friday & Saturday, much the same as the UKMO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2015 by Liam J

[knocker]

METO fax charts

 

[Liam J]

Euro4 mean wind speeds for 00z on Friday! comfortably into hurricane force, insane! Gales/severe gales affecting many northern & western areas.

 

Edited January 7, 2015 by Liam J

[Liam J]

The wind is getting quite strong here, becoming noticeable round the house. winds could gust around 60mph today for many in the exposed north and west. 

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited January 7, 2015 by Liam J

[knocker]

The ECM sequence. The winds are for 900mb and in knots.

 

Friday 00z Low 962mb between Iceland and Scotland. Broad swathe of winds in excess of 80kts approaching west Scotland and diminishing as one goes south but still 60+

 

Friday 06z  Low 963mb north of Scotland with winds 90kts plus in Pentland Firth but also 70kts plus down the west coast of Scotland.

 

Friday 12z Low now 974mb approaching Norway with 80+  in North sea and brief respite for Scotland.

 

Friday 18z. New low SSE of Iceland with active cold front lying SW/NE 150 miles west of Ireland. Westerly wind picking up in the UK.

 

Sat. 00z  Low 955mb between Iceland and Scotland with the fronts lying west of Scotland and western Ireland. 60 to 70 kts in these areas.

 

Sat. 06z Low now north of Shetlands with winds for that area in excess of 85kts. The cold front now down the Irish Sea bringing winds in excess of 60kts to Wales and SW.

 

Sat 12z Low now 945mb just west of Bergen and fresh NW over the UK.

[Sainsbo]

Not too often you see the MetO forecasting 98mph gusts, even for the north of Scotland. The area where gusts are expected to exceed 90mph is quite large, and 80mph+ gusts look likely to be widespread. Wouldn't like to be on the Cairngorms on Friday night.

 

[Matty M]

The storm to approach Scotland on Friday AM is very severe, expect to see some 100mph gusts going by late Hirlam output.

[Matty M]

6z GFS has round two for Scotland even worse

 

[vladthemert]

The wind is getting quite strong here, becoming noticeable round the house. winds could gust around 60mph today for many in the exposed north and west. 

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

Stay safe Liam also others who in worst effected areas.

 

Our paper over bigging the winds here saying 70 mph for the weekend, then again might not be bad thing people might listen and take precautions.

 

Had argument yesterday with a friend who said a bit wind wont stop him going out and he said hurricane force winds don't hit UK.   Ignorance of people today just cant warn them of the dangers.  Anybody else get the same problem with family and friends.

[radiohead]

Mean winds on the 0Z ECMWF off the northwest coast of Scotland are up to 103 mph.

[mardatha]

Horrible up here, quite windy and pelting rain - house is really draughty.

[Polar Maritime]

A good place to check out real time conditions for the far N/W, I find the Lighthouse cam good viewing.

 

http://visit.shetland.org/shetland-webcams

Edited January 7, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Thunder Snow]

Very heavy rain and strong winds, just a taster of whats to come

Wonder if we will see a red warning this weekend and when will we expect it

Edited January 7, 2015 by Thunder Snow

[shetland islands]

A good place to check out real time conditions for the far N/W, I find the Lighthouse cam good viewing.

 

http://visit.shetland.org/shetland-webcams

Looking pretty bad here on the second storm so sea conditions will be awful

[Mapantz]

The amber warnings have been issued. Hardly surprising, given the situation.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1420588800

That jet looks phenomenal..

Once again, the biggest wave heights in the world likely.