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Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January


Skullzrulerz

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

The GFS(P) at +204  :help: Looks pretty scary. Like people say, still 9 days away though. :)

 

204-515PUK.GIF?06-12

One to watch but it's still 9 days away. Very disruptive charts!

post-9615-0-84180300-1420571815_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-52695600-1420571822_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands

Things move rather swiftly. Again ECM 900mb winds.

 

Sat 00z low 953mb between Iceland and Scotland with a band of strong winds 70kts+ just west of Ireland/Scotland ready to sweep across the UK.

 

By 12z low 943mb north of Lerwick with the worst of the winds departed the UK but Lerwick in the firing line with gusts possible 90-100kts

 

By 18z just off Bergen with southern Norway getting a battering.

 

If this scenario plays out, and there is no certainty of this at this stage, not good but quick but Lerwick could get one of their storms.

115mph....we had this before, but I expect downgrades on actual wind speeds.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

ECM 12z

 

12am Friday showing 57 to 70mph mean wind speeds for NW Scotland,

 

post-6686-0-95896300-1420572602_thumb.pn

 

6am Friday 46 to 60mph mean wind speeds for the N Scotland,

 

post-6686-0-87037700-1420572683_thumb.pn

 

The ECM has moved the Friday night and Saturday morning storm further North this time giving the Faroe Islands and Shetland the worse of the winds,

 

post-6686-0-80276700-1420572820_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

One to watch but it's still 9 days away. Very disruptive charts!

attachicon.gifgfs110.pngattachicon.gifgfs111.png

If that came off as shown it would be one to tell the gran kids about.

As said though, a long way out and the final details will probably include a down grade in wind speed and more than likely a northerly shift in path.

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Posted
  • Location: Mids & Kent
  • Weather Preferences: snow heat storms and sunshine!
  • Location: Mids & Kent

We cannot dismiss the idea that even one of the predicted storms possibly takes a slightly more southerly route. As for the predicted monster for around the 15th, a fair old beast on par to 1987 I would imagine. Obviously a lot can change until then and probably will, we've only got this weekend to get out of the way first. Given the prognosis by some for around mid month, this weekend may well just be a leaf rustler.

Nonetheless the jet is steaming ahead regardless, it sure ain't going to be too bothered of what (or who) gets in its way. Interesting times ahead if not a rather precarious one for forecasters trying to paint an accurate picture, without causing unnecessary panic. At this stage anyway.

Cheers.

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

We cannot dismiss the idea that even one of the predicted storms possibly takes a slightly more southerly route. As for the predicted monster for around the 15th, a fair old beast on par to 1987 I would imagine. Obviously a lot can change until then and probably will, we've only got this weekend to get out of the way first. Given the prognosis by some for around mid month, this weekend may well just be a leaf rustler.

Nonetheless the jet is steaming ahead regardless, it sure ain't going to be too bothered of what (or who) gets in its way. Interesting times ahead if not a rather precarious one for forecasters trying to paint an accurate picture, without causing unnecessary panic. At this stage anyway.

Cheers.

True that the forecasters will be having a mare trying to get the track and intensity of these right as, unlike most UK weather events, these are potential killers and at least, can leave major damage and disruption in their wake.

On top of that are the media who are always keen to upgrade potential into certainty, irrespective of the level of that potential and whether it's based on science or just a need to sell news.

Certainly interesting times ahead and possibly worrying ones for anyone who doesn't like stormy weather.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

18z will be coming out soon! Wonder if we are now starting to see some consistency emerging?! Still a few days away yet plenty of time for changes, which I believe there will be but we'll see. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mids & Kent
  • Weather Preferences: snow heat storms and sunshine!
  • Location: Mids & Kent

18z will be coming out soon! Wonder if we are now starting to see some consistency emerging?! Still a few days away yet plenty of time for changes, which I believe there will be but we'll see.

I said that lol :)

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

I said that lol :)

:good:

 

I think by tomorrow evening maybe into Thursday we should be much more confident in how this situation is likely to evolve. Also the hi-res models will be onto it. The Met do stress in their warnings there is still a level of uncertainty, they'll have the short range UKV model in range soon which runs at 1.5km resolution out to 36hrs. 

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

UK Met with their Faxes seem to be keeping a similar deepening and track looking at the latest outputs this evening, see link below

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72

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Posted
  • Location: Mids & Kent
  • Weather Preferences: snow heat storms and sunshine!
  • Location: Mids & Kent

Plenty to firm upon jesting aside, one period possibly two to keep tabs on at least for now. More than enough I would think and should some colder air enter the mix (thinking 15th again) adding to a more wintry spell to boot.

Edited by snow..chance
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Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK

18z will be coming out soon! Wonder if we are now starting to see some consistency emerging?! Still a few days away yet plenty of time for changes, which I believe there will be but we'll see. 

 

Looking forward to the forthcoming 18z Liam, some consistency emerging I feel. Although, like you I believe there will be some minor changes with regards to the strength and positioning of these vigorous low pressures.

 

Mammatus  :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Looking forward to the forthcoming 18z Liam, some consistency emerging I feel. Although, like you I believe there will be some minor changes with regards to the strength and positioning of these vigorous low pressures.

 

Mammatus  :) 

Rolling out now! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php :)

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

As mentioned above the Thurs/Fri storm is slightly further south on the 18z bringing extremely strong winds through central/northern Scotland.

 

post-9615-0-27692100-1420581406_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-15133800-1420581411_thumb.pn

 

The second storm centre moves north and misses Scotland but there remains a very tight pressure gradient with severe winds affecting areas further south, Ireland, S Scotland, N England, Wales. Much the same areas currently covered by the Met warning for Saturday. 

 

post-9615-0-26598400-1420581417_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-81089100-1420581429_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Both the new and old GFS models with their 18z runs are slightly further South than before and still giving very strong winds for the NW of Scotland. The second low is again shown to track North we're starting to see some good consistency with it now and it looks like Northern Scotland will see high winds when it arrives but the windy weather will be still widespread too across the UK and Ireland.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Sunday another day to start watching for more potential stormy weather?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK

GFS 18z Parallel programmed 03:00 Saturday 10th.

post-1600-0-31729900-1420582660_thumb.pn

 

A distinct and noteworthy shortwave sweeping E/SE with some really vicious gusts I suspect for Wales, the Midlands and into Lincolnshire and East Anglia before it clears quickly away after 11:00.

 

A trend for this severe weather to be further south as we approach T+0.

 

Mammatus

Edited by Mammatus
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

GFS(P) charts for Friday, violent gusts over 90mph!

 

post-9615-0-79727300-1420582909_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-40087400-1420582920_thumb.pn

 

Saturday the focus is further south. 70-80mph gusts. 

 

post-9615-0-81489100-1420583051_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-03855900-1420583059_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-83135500-1420583065_thumb.pn

 

Expecting amber warnings may well be issued for some areas especially for parts of Scotland. 

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Yikes!! Next weeks potential storm looks even worse on this run!!

post-9615-0-77932800-1420583666_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

GFS P still going for mega storm to approach the UK around next Wednesday, could be a long few days if this keeps getting progged

 

Hard to take anything too seriously at this juncture though but potential for something exceptional

 

gfs-0-186.png?18

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