Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January

[shetland islands]

Looks like Shetland could be hit on Saturday?

[Mapantz]

The big wave heights are back, unsurprisingly..

Spring tide is tomorrow but tides will still be fairly high on Thusday/Friday, so some coastal flooding is possible. The secondary low brings a bigger sea state, but it may track further north.

I wouldn't want to be drawing up that fax chart! Look how many fronts are on it?!

[johnholmes]

I wouldn't want to be drawing up that fax chart! Look how many fronts are on it?!

brack1a.gif

why we have 6 fronts with only 3 thickness lines is not easy to follow. He might find it difficult to explain at the Met College why he has 6 fronts!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Any news for the third of the lows which is due to hit on Saturday?  I'm well to the south of the worst-affected areas, but I have a hospital appointment on Saturday morning and was just wondering how windy my area may be by then?

[Matty M]

GFS throws a sig low across Scotland Saturday morning..

 

This is after gales the previous morning.

 

 

 

 

UKM 96hr charts looks ominous to me...

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015010512/UW96-21.GIF?05-17

And it is, runs a big mammoth storm off the west coast of Ireland and into Scotland

 

[Zenarcher]

12z runs so far,

 

Old GFS - First storm for Thursday/Friday is still being shown to hit the NW of Scotland. It has been downgraded slightly from the 06z run this morning but still shows high wind speeds,

 

 

Mean wind speeds over 55mph in the NW

 

 

Gusts over 85mph for the NW

 

 

The Friday/Saturday storm has been given a push further South and hits the NW of Scotland again with similar wind speeds to the storm that was there just 24 hours before,

 

 

Mean speeds around 55mph again

 

 

Gusts up to 90 to 100mph this time

 

 

New GFS - It doesn't go with a storm happening on Thursday/Friday so it still may not come to anything much however it goes for gusts around 50 to 60mph for Ireland, Wales and England,

 

 

The Friday/Saturday storm is also different its much further North and misses the UK. We still get 60 to 70mph gusts sweep across the UK though,

 

 

 

UKMO - Although we can't see the Thursday night chart by looking at Friday afternoon it seems to look similar to the old GFS model so it probably gives support to the idea of the storm happening.

 

The Friday/Saturday storm has been given a big upgrade this big 945mb low would bring stormy weather for the Northern Scottish Isles with severe gales across the rest of Scotland and Northern parts.

 

[BurntFishTrousers]

Bookmark for waves heights. (new feature)

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=significant_wave_height/orthographic=-12.76,27.77,348

[BurntFishTrousers]

I don't see Scotland under the isobars for Saturday.

 

[vladthemert]

Our high tides nearly 7 m at present here.  Would think there small chance coastline flooding if the swell becomes significant, read could be facing 4 m + in north sea.

 

East coast here still inline for some high winds though it seem to sway from 52 mph to 68 mph with each run.  Weathermaster one run seems to show increase in winds near newcastle.

Edited January 5, 2015 by vladthemert

[Liam J]

Some very windy charts on both GFS & GFS(P) models although the GFS(P) doesn't make as much of the first storm as the old GFS.

 

Mean pressure chart for Friday into Saturday - Very windy. 

[Liam J]

ECM not making nearly as much of the first storm as per GFS. Very tight pressure gradient moving from the west Friday afternoon on this run. 

 

Severe gale to storm force winds in the north at 120hrs, different to the UKMO 945mb storm and a bit further south. 

Edited January 5, 2015 by Liam J

[legritter]

from a storm lovers position  any storms now becoming confined to only northern most parts of uk ,after last years severe storms this weeks storms are realy just a reminder that we are only in a run of expected westerly flow for early January . looking at todays charts our friend the azores high is well in controll of our weather ,and checking on spanish weather sites a large rise of pressure is expected over the coming week ,but a shift further west is expected after mid week next week 14th/15th january .at this stage eastern europe in about 10 days time is expected to see a high pressure set up and on its western flank some extremely high temperatures including the uk .after this the high is expected to sink south allowing a mobile westerly flow back into europe ,with a strong polar vortex setting up over greenland /iceland ,later in january and early february a further rise of pressure over north africa and southern europe could set up some very mild temperatures for europe .this is not a personal forecast but taken from other forums and collecting data from Construction companies who pay for extended forecasts from many professional forecasters .we seem to be in a run of high pressure dominated synoptics to our south and s/west but personally i feel that mother nature will balance the books soon ,i dont believe that any agency can predict past 4 weeks ahead alone 2 weeks so we still have plenty of time for snow and cold in my honest opinion .  

[Liam J]

Outputs still all over the place for events later this week! Give it a few more days and hopefully we'll see some model agreement for where the storm(s) may impact?! It's looking windy/very windy for the end of the week and the risk of a significant windstorm remains, intersting 3/4 days of model watching ahead thats for sure!!

Edited January 5, 2015 by Liam J

[Snowshine]

The strongest winds will probably be confined to the North. England will hardly get a battering from this storm, especially any southern areas and the Midlands which will hardly get a gust of 50mph at most. This sucks because all England will get is (the most boring weather) much milder temperatures and light rain. The chance of any decent snow is extremely low. I really hope England actually get some this year...

 

[johnholmes]

UK Met having trouble as well in sticking a pin in the chart! Unkind but obviously they are getting varying outputs from the models they use.

The latest show at 00z Thursday T+72 991mb approx 47.5N 46W and at 12Z 53.5N 31W centre 979mb, both these fixes given this morning. The 12z fix fits about what they had a day or so ago I think it was, and is different to the T+84 which showed a centre 991mb and further west.

Not sure just how it is then and in the future to what the jet will be but simple extrapolation would move it just north of the Faroe Islands. Of course if it exits at the left exit of the jet then turning more sharply and being deeper.

Turning to their Atlantic area shipping outlooks, link given below along with the Fax link I use (I prefer it as it gives the times of output for each Fax chart), the bit about the low we are talking about I have bolded.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/#?tab=map

Fax link

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

It certainly is worth watching, and was well predicted in a general sense 4-5 days, if not longer, by the anomaly charts which showed the Atlantic really showing a very strong flow with marked temperature contrasts at 500mb.

 

The general synopsis at 0800 UTC Mon 5 Jan

At 050000UTC, lows 61 north 35 west 967 and 58 north 31 west 977 merging, expected 67 north 18 west 977 by 060000UTC. Developing low near 57 north 20 west expected 73 north 15 west 967 by same time. Low 66 north 29 west 960 expected 65 north 36 west 977 by that time. at 050000UTC, low 47 north 70 west 993 expected 53 north 49 west 965 by 060000UTC

[Zenarcher]

ECM 12z

 

It gives the old GFS model some support here. 6am on Friday morning it has the low beside Shetland. The old GFS model has it slightly more North West to the ECM.

 

 

The ECM has the storm on Saturday morning more South this time bringing high winds for Ireland, Scotland and Northern England.

 

 

Overall today the models do seem to agree on a storm coming to the NW of Scotland on Thursday night into Friday morning there is a chance it could be downgraded/upgraded still. As for the Friday night into Saturday morning storm the models still seem unsure on its track every run from them shows something different, at the moment it could miss the UK completely or pass right over the UK.

Edited January 5, 2015 by weathermaster

[The PIT]

All very much in the air but the downgrades are in there and past history shows that these tend to continue. Wouldn't like to predict anything at this stage.

[Liam J]

Met Office wind gust charts for midday Saturday, windy for much of the UK but the strongest winds batter northern areas. Obviously this is 5 days out so expect further changes to these forecasts as details become clearer over the next few days. 

 

[Zenarcher]

Big changes on the 18z GFS a huge downgrade for both the storms,

 

Thursday night changes

 

12z

 

 

18z

 

 

Friday night changes

 

12z

 

 

18z

 

 

Thursday nights storm track remains the same to the NW of Scotland but how windy it will be still seems uncertain it could upgrade again nearer the time. As for Friday nights storm the track still keeps changing about so much we don't really know where it will end up yet.

Edited January 5, 2015 by weathermaster

[Liam J]

18z slightly further south and not as deep with the first low, 2nd low removed with the strongest winds further south. This is the pub run! Probably look different again on the 00z output. 

 

Not a million miles away from the ECM.

 

 

 

[Liam J]

Overall a downgrade from the 18z, the roller coaster ride continues! Things will change again on the next run. I think the 18z is the worst run of the day for verification? Not too sure. 

 

Wednesday the first windy day with gusts of 50-60mph in places. 

 

 

Then Thursday night into Friday, brief lull then the next spell of very windy weather arrives Friday into Saturday. 

 

Still a high diversity across the models to be able to even attempt a forecast for the end of the week. I don't believe any model has the correct evolution and that may continue for a few days yet!

Edited January 5, 2015 by Liam J

[Cookie]

This is driving me nuts all this flipping 

[Daniel*]

You ought to look at the 15th we ain't seen nothing yet... (forgot to add the 14th as well)

Chaos.

Unlikely to verify but conditions look rather ripe for rapid cyclogenesis to occur thus can't be discounted

Edited January 6, 2015 by Daniel*

[Mammatus]

A downgrade in real terms for Friday's storm northern Scotland on tonight's GFS 18z as others have said in previous posts^. BUT, an upgrade for most of Wales and England north of the M4 corridor for Saturday 10th January 00:00 - 12:00. Saturday imo has been the day to watch for over a week now, especially with the extremely powerful jet right over the UK. GFS certainly shoulder to shoulder with latest ECM output this evening, albeit slightly watered-down wrt wind gusts but still damaging nonetheless!

 

18z GFS - Saturday morning - Widespread severe gales across most of England (north of M4) with gusts in excess of 70 mph inland. You then have prone exposed locations that would outstrip 70mph comfortably. 

 

Interesting few days coming up for us storm fanatics. Along with further modifications as we get closer to the weekend!

 

Mammatus 

 

 

[Mammatus]

Something like this would be ideal, but unlikely here in Suffolk