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Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January


Skullzrulerz

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Yep the models seem confident on placing a deep low to the far North of Scotland on the 9th or 10th bringing stormy weather. It could move more South and hit Scotland and more of the UK though as the 18z GFS shows.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Again some very stormy looking charts from the overnight runs, Friday and Saturday the days to watch atm. Gusts exceeding 90mph in the north. 

 

NMM 00z

 

post-9615-0-65086700-1420359613_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-32979200-1420359656_thumb.pn

 

GFS 00z

 

post-9615-0-13424600-1420359813_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-61352400-1420359832_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes very interesting to watch how this unfolds over the next few days, The BBC seem to be talking of concern.

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

O god that'll be the Sky dish away again then :ninja:

Edited by mardatha
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Certainly not a boring outlook this week with potentially damaging gales, rain, snow & blizzards likely to feature in the forecast after mid-week! 

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes Liam a very active week coming up by the looks of it  :)

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Dangerous storm on the 6z, gusts over 100mph for the north and 70mph+ quite widely even over land. Normally I would say it's a case of the GFS over-doing things and maybe this is a tad extreme to be taken too seriously just yet, however UKMO & ECM also going for stormy conditions and this is already being mentioned on TV broadcasts even though it's a few days away yet, meaning that there must be enough confidence at the Met using their own models/ensemble forecasts to suggest something severe may come off at the end of this week. Some of the 6z ensembles also track the storm a bit further south bringing the strongest wind field over more populated areas. still a variety of possible tracks/depths which is to be expected at this range. 

 

post-9615-0-20866100-1420368796_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-21736000-1420368802_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-91244500-1420368810_thumb.pn

 

Isobars plotted every 1mb!!

 

post-9615-0-94017100-1420368819_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Wow - mean winds 92+ mph north of the Outer Hebrides. In the tropics, a hurricane is classified as Category 2 at 94 mph.

 

af6o67q.png

 

Only time when I've seen wind speeds close to that actually come off occurred twice in 2011 on the 3rd of February and 8th of December. With a chance it may happen again soon it really needs watching.

 

Quick run through the models,

 

Old GFS - Shows the most extreme solution with 2 low pressure systems bringing extremely high mean wind speeds and high gusts.

 

New GFS - Only develops 1 low pressure system and sends it far North missing the UK completely however we still get a spell of windy weather.

 

GFS Ensembles - Very mixed they have a trend of stormy weather just where and how bad seems unknown.

 

ECM and UKMO - Both look very similar and agree with the old GFS model but have the low pressure systems a bit weaker.

 

GEM - Only develops 1 low pressure system that brings windy weather but nothing severe looking.

 

NAVGEM - Looks similar to the old GFS, ECM and UKMO but has the low pressure systems a lot weaker.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

The 06Z wasn't an outlier looking at the ensembles. Several show even more powerful lows than the deterministic run, some much further south. So it certainly requires carefully watching.

 

This one in particular is jaw-dropping.

 

gens-10-1-144_lar8.png

Edited by radiohead
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Far from set in stone yet and there is a chance that they may not come to much. The storm(s) could track further north and miss the majority or they may not turn out to be as severe as currently being modelled on some of the outputs. The fact that the potential for stormy weather is being filtered into TV broadcasts already leads me to believe that the probability for such an event is higher atm rather than not, and the UKMet are very good when forecasting wind storms imo.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Wow! A very interesting week ahead, As Liam says above the BBC have been talking of this for a day or two so there must be some concern.

 

114-515UK.GIF?04-6120-602UK.GIF?04-6

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Well it is 6 days away and the latest Fax for 120h=5 days away shows it mid Atlantic at 975mb, leave it a day or so then we can really get a handle on it, position in relation to the jet etc, track over 24-36 hours actual not predicted. infra red sat piccs etc, an interesting one for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Some insane wind speeds being forecast on XC Weather using 6z data. Gusts in the NW of 95-105mph with mean speeds in excess of 70mph. http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

 

post-9615-0-79153300-1420373825_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

The Upgraded GFS 06oz run shows a slightly less lively outcome on the latest run but still very windy. There be upgrades and downgrades from now on probably the best day will Wednesday evening to get a fairly good handle on it.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I've still been in holiday mode, so I've not hand a chance to look at recent output.

A quick glance at the GFS jet stream charts sum it up.

I look at this and think, ooof!

post-15177-0-04725200-1420376711_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Mids & Kent
  • Weather Preferences: snow heat storms and sunshine!
  • Location: Mids & Kent

I've still been in holiday mode, so I've not hand a chance to look at recent output.

A quick glance at the GFS jet stream charts sum it up.

I look at this and think, ooof!

attachicon.gifviewimage.png

Pretty much sums up the potential. Top of the scale stuff and some serious weather heading our way. This lot could blow our more recent windier periods well and truly into the bushes. Literally!

Expecting amber warnings mid week on or should the signals continue to appear on those charts. An exceptional spell of weather now looking more likely.

Edited by snow..chance
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

This is how the met office see things today

 

Brisk winds across the UK Friday will be strong in many areas, with severe gales and possible storm force winds in the far northwest early Friday.

 

I wouldn't be surprise if they issue an early yellow warning tomorrow for Friday

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

I hope its ok to ask this here, I take it the chances of this storm dropping aprox 400 miles south are zero as usual ?

Some of the ensembles are tracking the storm slightly further south than the operational run, but in general most are firing the storm towards the NW of the UK, a normal track for Atlantic storms. It's unlikely that a 400 mile shift will occur! 

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Posted
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!
  • Location: Haverhill Suffolk UK

Firstly and most importantly Happy New Year to you all.

 

I wanted to start a distinct thread discussion for the period illustrated above. Mods, please feel free to amalgamate with the general storm discussion if necessary.

 

For several days now some really quite monstrous Atlantic storms have been showing up in the models correlated with the above dates. It's far to early to discuss specific details with regards to the storms track and/or intensity, but there is an unmistakable and bold trend towards some really quite atrocious weather for the United Kingdom and Ireland.

 

One storm I have highlighted is for the 10th January 2015.

 

Very deep low pressures

attachicon.gif100115 ISOBARS.png

 

Powerful strong jet stream aloft

attachicon.gif100115 JET.png

 

Wind gusts in excess of 90mph inland

attachicon.gif100115 STORM.png

 

 

We are all heading for a bumpy ride into the New Year! 

 

Mammatus

 

Hello everyone,

 

Have been keeping a close eye on the models since my post 5 days ago and the trend for some really violent weather across the UK and Ireland is probably going to become a reality later next week.

 

As you can see from this morning's GFS 06z (below - programmed for this coming thursday pm - T+111), the jet stream swoops east from Canada, then east/northeast across the Atlantic towards the UK. Closer to the ground bitterly cold dry air is streaming south from Canada and meeting warm moist air moving north from the Caribbean. It is where these two air-masses are going to meet under the jet stream that these extremely powerful Atlantic storms will form and head straight towards Ireland and the UK.

post-1600-0-96124700-1420384040_thumb.pn

 

With mean wind speeds forecast to be 'potentially' 70 mph in exposed prone locations and gusts 'potentially' exceeding 100 mph+ all within the reliable time frame, we all really do have to keep tabs on developments as this/these could be dangerous wind storms that cause havoc.

 

Lots to watch over the coming hours and days!!!

 

Mammatus.

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

Quite happy to be out of the UK for now by the sound of what's coming! We've had some lovely continental climate winter weather here in Limousin with some great ice formations up in the hills. It's grey and drizzly now though but a promise of something better from tomorrow. We're heading down to Languedoc on Wednesday for a week or so, hoping for a little warmth and something settled.

 

Stay safe for what's coming...

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