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Skullzrulerz

Severe Atlantic storms 8-10th January

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Hello and welcome to the brand new thread and maybe the first one for 2015.

 

To everyone on netweather have a happy new year.

 

However back to on topic things some models are showing storms ( fine detail will come later as some go out to deep unreliable time-frame or whatever you want to call 

 

I am not talking about the new year's storm so here is a link to the new year's storm discussion below

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82129-new-years-day-possible-storm/

 

So let's use the soon to be main GFS model the GFS Parallel which will soon replace the old GFS which is still in use today.

 

So let's start with this Saturday ( 3rd January 2015 )

 

ukwind.png

 

A area of strong gusts of winds will first hit eastern and northern Ireland 

ukwind.png

 

Than small area of strong gusts of winds will hit the isle of man and parts of northern Wales and northern England for a time.

 

ukwind.png

 

 

Than will the east coast will be taking on some moderate gusts for a few hours.

 

On Monday the of 5th January a minor storm will hit northern Scotland.

 

ukwind.png

 

ukwind.png

 

ukwind.png

 

Now this is where deep fi starts to do its magic and bring some 'Major' storms on the GFS P.

 

Wednesday 7th January 2015

 

ukwind.png

ukwind.png

 

ukwind.png

 

ukwind.png

 

This storm if it happens since models change their minds on each and every run of their lives this will bring a fair banging for the coasts of Scotland and possible strong gusts inland for a time.

 

Friday 9th January 2015

 

ukwind.png

 

Since it doesn't do a 3 hour thing at the end of the run i will try to predict what will happen if this storm were to happen.

 

It will bring strong/very strong gusts possibly even damaging winds to a area which will most likely be the south coast and Wales. 

 

It than moves east wards bring a windy gusty day to England however damaging winds to a area of the UK cannot be ruled out. 

 

So than what are you thoughts for a possible storm period to happen in January?

 

Share you thoughts here.

 

Please also note the every run is different so the pictures that i have posted may be wrong in the next 24-48 hours. 

Edited by weathermaster
Changed Title

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Firstly and most importantly Happy New Year to you all.

 

I wanted to start a distinct thread discussion for the period illustrated above. Mods, please feel free to amalgamate with the general storm discussion if necessary.

 

For several days now some really quite monstrous Atlantic storms have been showing up in the models correlated with the above dates. It's far to early to discuss specific details with regards to the storms track and/or intensity, but there is an unmistakable and bold trend towards some really quite atrocious weather for the United Kingdom and Ireland.

 

One storm I have highlighted is for the 10th January 2015.

 

Very deep low pressures

post-1600-0-38362200-1419938574_thumb.pn

 

Powerful strong jet stream aloft

post-1600-0-22682600-1419938528_thumb.pn

 

Wind gusts in excess of 90mph inland

post-1600-0-74980500-1419938487_thumb.pn

 

 

We are all heading for a bumpy ride into the New Year! 

 

Mammatus

Edited by Mammatus

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I think it a bit early to start this, 9 January, just my opinion. Equally as I suggested in one of my anomaly posts it will be surprising if the north and NW of Scotland , possibly a bit further south into Scotland does not see at least one quite marked storm within the next 2 weeks given the strength of the jet across the Atlantic.

We need to watch the 500mb and say the 300mb predicted charts to see if any 'minor' trough appears to be developing in the broadly westerly upper flow. Once they show then following the jet stream, if the pattern is shown consistently, say from the 00 and 12z outputs over a couple of days, no more than 5-6 days ahead, will give some idea where the right entrance and left exit areas look like being. If they are favourable then a fairly rapid deepening of any surface feature beneath these areas would be likely.

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duplicate threads merged

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I half expect these monsters to be downgraded over time as I just don't understand how suddenly all this energy into the Atlantic can just appear. When they start creeping into the 0-144hrs range then I'll pay attention.

 

Great thread though and certainly be very beneficial nearer the time.

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Eeek..

 

Very FI however, ... Eeeeek

 

airpressure.png

 

 

ukgust.png

 

 

 

 

Potential for quite some nasty weather the latter part of next week and then some nasty stuff the following week ( above )

 

Looks like the 850 -5's are not far away with any of these low pressure systems.... Possibly some snow about when the lows pass to the east of us..

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I half expect these monsters to be downgraded over time as I just don't understand how suddenly all this energy into the Atlantic can just appear. When they start creeping into the 0-144hrs range then I'll pay attention.

 

Great thread though and certainly be very beneficial nearer the time.

I think in a safe bet it would be best to keep watch for time being since for the last two days a few models have been showing all kinds of storms lately, probably there will be gone in the next few days or there be downgraded until there not really of any concern.

And a side which is sightly off topic how come did the title change for? No offence I who like to know why?

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And a side which is sightly off topic how come did the title change for? No offence I who like to know why?

 

Your topic was merged with Mammatus topic which was titled ''Ferocious Damaging Storms UK - January 8th 2015 to January 15th 2015''. I will change it back to the ''Atlantic Lows January 2015'' as we usually have a thread to talk about possible storms in the next few days to next week, then when the time moves closer and it still looks severe the storm usually gets it's own topic created for discussions.

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Your topic was merged with Mammatus topic which was titled ''Ferocious Damaging Storms UK - January 8th 2015 to January 15th 2015''. I will change it back to the ''Atlantic Lows January 2015'' as we usually have a thread to talk about possible storms in the next few days to next week, then when the time moves closer and it still looks severe the storm usually gets it's own topic created for discussions.

That's fine than I didn't know of anything about this since I wasn't on here last night.

Thanks for explaining it to me it's well appreciated for doing so.

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In the very depths of FI

 

Ecmwf gives a big storm for the east coast of the uk bring very strong gusts and rain with it.

 

ECM1-240.GIF?30-0

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Deleted

Edited by knocker

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It'll be the usual overcooking from the GFS but the potential for something meaty is still there. Deep in FI:

 

post-2844-0-98448800-1420100894_thumb.pnpost-2844-0-95076600-1420100896_thumb.pn

 

 

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It'll be the usual overcooking from the GFS but the potential for something meaty is still there. Deep in FI:

 

attachicon.gif1st Jan GFSP 00z +231hrs.pngattachicon.gif1st Jan GFSP 00z +234hrs Wind Gusts.png

Yikes!! That would be severe and have some major impacts! the GFS loves it's FI wind storms but it just shows how volatile the setup is we are heading into. 

Edited by Liam J

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Oh the joy of the GFS (P) This fella ends up 925mb north of Scotland at 06z on the 10th.

Chart weatherbell

 

post-12275-0-48732100-1420112343_thumb.p

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GFS latest run really going for this.....

 

746c397c2c.png

fb24465e40.png

 

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Looks like we're heading into a very mobile pattern over the next week with plenty of potential for stormy weather, some very intense depressions have been modelled over recent days. The 8th to the 10th is looking quite interesting imo - lots to keep an eye on. 

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Looks like we're heading into a very mobile pattern over the next week with plenty of potential for stormy weather, some very intense depressions have been modelled over recent days. The 8th to the 10th is looking quite interesting imo - lots to keep an eye on.

Certainly is. Any slight shift of colder uppers and some eye candy charts could well appear in the mix too, usually at pretty short notice. Even tomorrow's potential is keeping many on their toes re some more wintry stuff. Mid Jan also has the hallmark for a more pronounced northwest flow at times bringing localised gales, wintry even thundery showers and snow for some. Nothing boring into the foreseeable, new year some new challenges for sure.

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High pressure being modelled to the south of the UK next week with deep lows passing to the north making for a very intense pressure gradient over the UK. Still some time away so things could look different closer to the time. 

 

985mb over the far north and 1030mb+ on the south coast. 

post-9615-0-32079400-1420224368_thumb.gipost-9615-0-91904000-1420224376_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J

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Production line Atlantic ,some rough weather ahead then ..

Indeed, nothing extreme showing at the moment but with such set-ups something could develop at relatively short notice. As I mentioned earlier the 8th/9th/10th hold some interest on current model guidance, still too far away atm but should be good model viewing over the coming days, if you like your weather of the rough variety! 

Edited by Liam J

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Overnight runs continue the stormy theme for the back end of next week. Not worth going into detail yet at this range, but the potential is clear to see. UKMO also now picking up on this. 

 

post-9615-0-78019500-1420274143_thumb.gipost-9615-0-69830800-1420274133_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-38314000-1420274156_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-09053200-1420274166_thumb.pn

 

A number of the ensembles now highlighting the risk.

 

post-9615-0-75336000-1420274737_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-62738700-1420274747_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-81898200-1420274772_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-66445200-1420274787_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-14612400-1420274797_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-68057300-1420274817_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-38285800-1420274828_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-72193200-1420275627_thumb.pn

 

Medium range NMM showing some extremely windy weather. 

 

post-9615-0-30120900-1420275977_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-37853700-1420275986_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J

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Yes, I'm watching this with interest. Nothing out of the ordinary forecast for this area at the moment but it would only take a small shift southward to give the anemometer a good test. 

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Tweet from Ryan Maue

 

Would be interesting to be on a ship between north coast of Scotland / Iceland later next week

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/551446856954568704/photo/1

Don't let the Daily Express see his Twitter page - He's forecasting hurricane force storms for the UK late next week!! LOL

 

Pretty disturbed ECM 12z run, very windy/stormy at times from mid-week onwards. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Edited by Liam J

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