Jump to content

Recommended Posts

A tropical depression with 30kt winds has formed 575 nautical miles southeast of Manila, Philippines. The depression has some moderately deep convection obscuring the LLCC, with some fairly well developed banding features flanking it. The environment is favourable, with low shear, good outflow and warm waters beneath the depression. However, landfall in the Southern Philippines is imminent, so short term strengthening will be limited by this. As 23W moves over the warm waters in between the islands of the southern Philippines, it has the potential to reintensify, and JTWC expect a peak of 45kts at this point. Thereafter, once 23W moves out into the South China Sea, a surge of cold northeasterly winds aloft will increase shear and drive cold, dry air into the system, causing weakening to occur as 23W continues westwards under the sreering influence of ridging to the north.

post-1820-0-78202700-1419769094_thumb.jp

post-1820-0-94369400-1419769121_thumb.gi

Edited by Somerset Squall

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A tropical depression with 30kt winds has formed 575 nautical miles southeast of Manila, Philippines. The depression has some moderately deep convection obscuring the LLCC, with some fairly well developed banding features flanking it. 

 

This tropical cyclone is certainly looking quite well organized from the start. In fact, the JTWC have upgraded the system to a tropical storm, with 35 kt winds. The JMA (japan meteorlogical agency) has not yet done so, and that is why the system has not been named yet. On top of this, CIMSS satellite intensity estimates have the system assessed at 55 kt, quite a bit higher than assessed by the JTWC. The satellite intensity trends can be seen below:

 

23WP.GIF

CIMSS ADT satellite intensity trend. The image does auto-update itself.

 

At the time of writing (23 UTC, 28-12-2014), 23W has intensified 20 kt in just 14 hours (if the satellite intensity estimates are correct). However, the cyclone ios already making landfall, so its intensification will be short-lived. It will be interesting to see whether the system can retain its organization at passage over land.

 

Sources:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now Tropical Storm Jangmi, with winds of 40kts. The previous incarnation of Jangmi is my profile picture incidentally.

Edited by Somerset Squall

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jangmi's winds increased to 45kts this afternoon according to JTWC, but land interaction has caused some slight weakening, with winds down to 40kts. Some re-intensification is expected after emergence into the South China Sea, but this will be somewhat short lived due to increasing northeasterly shear forecast as Jangmi moves further into the South China Sea.

post-1820-0-51117100-1419890117_thumb.gi

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jangmi has died a death crossing the southern Philippines. Shear rose prematurely, stripping the LLCC of it's convection. The remnant low is meandering to the south just west of the southern Philippines. Regeneration is not expected.

Edited by Somerset Squall

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Warm run-up to Easter but a destabilising low means sunshine and showers at the weekend

    High pressure is keeping our weather settled at the moment, and in the main it'll stay that way until the end of the week. But with low pressure helping to destabilise the atmosphere this weekend, the sunshine will be joined by some heavy showers. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Lockdown Gardening - Top Tips for New Gardeners

    Lockdown Gardening - Top Tips for New Gardeners - Blog by Jenny Bell WWW.NETWEATHER.TV In the first in a regular series of gardening articles, Jenny Bell gives her top tips for new gardeners who are maybe taking their first gardening steps during the lockdown.  

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...