Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[Mair Snaw]

Well fantasy is probably the best you'll get this winter, writing is on the wall and I'll eat my own hat if we end up with decent cold spell.

Depends on what you call decent... we didn't have an SSW in December but the last week of December saw many with lying snow for 5/6 days... ice days and some very hard frosts... I know that an SSW is something that we wanted to see but even if it happens its not a given for UK cold....and to be calling time on winter on the 4th of Jan I feel is very premature... we do also have most of march left as well....it happens.....still plenty of time left.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Aye, and rather bizarrely, the 'straw clutch' from T372 lat night, it's still there, and now at T336 !!! Bets on when it'll disappear ???

 

Rtavn3361.gif

 

Well, the straw clutch chart, with some slight differences, which started way out at T372, is now at T276. Blimey, at this rate it'll be getting into the 'reliable' part of FI !!!

 

[bluearmy]

 

the day 11 super ens anomoly from gefs has a pretty high coefficient and some interesting analog years for subsequent developments

[karlos1983]

Depends on what you call decent... we didn't have an SSW in December but the last week of December saw many with lying snow for 5/6 days... ice days and some very hard frosts... I know that an SSW is something that we wanted to see but even if it happens its not a given for UK cold....and to be calling time on winter on the 4th of Jan I feel is very premature... we do also have most of march left as well....it happens.....still plenty of time left.

Speak for yourself, I'm talking about a UK wide cold spell, not a North or elevation event.

And again March won't deliver in the South, maybe once in couple of decades, but not often. Maybe for your backyard

Edited January 4, 2015 by karlos1983

[MR EXTREMES]

Watch the "winters over" posts come in thick and fast after this bit of news

Yep can't argue with that and it was a very minor warming so I would say anything remotely exciting on the models shown really can't be taking seriously.

But I certainly can't rule out at least a frost in feb

[Barry12]

Yep can't argue with that and it was a very minor warming so I would say anything remotely exciting on the models shown really can't be taking seriously.

But I certainly can't rule out at least a frost in feb

 

You do realize there can be cold spells without an SSW? there was no SSW in December 2010.

 

Frost is impossible without an SSW though, so I'd rule that out

Edited January 4, 2015 by Barry95

[Carlrg]

Put yer hats and coats away guys. Springs on its way.

 

 

 

[SE Blizzards]

Put yer hats and coats away guys. Springs on its way.

 

gens-13-1-336.png

 

No it's not!

 

 

   

 

What on earth has the pub run been drinking tonight?????

 

Edited January 4, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[chionomaniac]

I've just moved a load of banter to the appropriate thread. Please post responsibly in the right thread - nonsense banter posts detract from those posts which are well reasoned and thought out such as vorticity's earlier.

 

Thanks

[Chris K]

Put yer hats and coats away guys. Springs on its way.

 

gens-13-1-336.png

 

I'll keep my coat handy thanks that chart wouldn't exactly be warm just because of the "warmer colours" - it is for the 500hpa level. I am not a fool to believe one perturbation from the GEFS ensembles at T+336 hours either

[kumquat]

As though sneaking a peek at Steve M's post from earlier, the 18Z gfs Op invokes "Sods Law".

 

 

(Not the first run to go off in same direction in the last few days, either!)

Edited January 4, 2015 by kumquat

[bluearmy]

Interesting low res from gfs, given my earlier comments about the gefs mean vortex lining up down the Asian side .............

And Ed's upwelling wave makes if all the way to 30hpa by the end of the run!

Edited January 4, 2015 by bluearmy

[chionomaniac]

Interesting low res from gfs, given my earlier comments about the gefs mean vortex lining up down the Asian side .............

And Ed's upwelling wave makes if all the way to 30hpa by the end of the run!

Was just about to point that out - No SSW - but the vortex is still not a happy chappy and the next wave 2 split is there by the end of the run. I suspect that it is the proneness this year to upwelling events that have inhibited the major downwelling event - and to some extent that is why the winter forecast is coming off the rails! The vortex is too pliable in a nutshell!

[Mucka]

On cue

Think it was a joke.

Lots of talk about bad news for background signals not supporting blocking or cold weather etc but we often get caught up in these latest buzz trends as if they are the be all and end all of our winters and yet they are at best clumsy instruments for predicting what conditions we will experience over our small island let alone locally within that Island.

 

I'm not saying they are of no use or they should not be discussed, they are and they should, just that we need to understand that whatever the teleconnections are, whatever other background indicators, nobody can tell you what weather we will be experiencing on Jan 20th  (for example)

That is what makes our weather so compelling and why for all our frustration and angst we come back virtually every day to see what the MO has served up for us.

Be it cold porridge or chateaubriand or good old egg n chips.

 

 

Granted I find the sort of chart above verifying as unlikely myself at this juncture but at least there is a signal and we have a shot and SSW be damned sir!

Edited January 4, 2015 by Mucka

[SMU]

The pub run is exactly how I saw jan playing out in the winter forecast - high lattitude blocking over greenland & continental type flows over the UK -

If we are going to get anywhere close to the forecast the OP evolution needs to varify very close, not the GFS (p) Pub!!!

S

[Captain Shortwave]

So the GFS op goes Greenland high, whilst the Parallel builds the Azores high a little further north which brings a cooler and more settled period, albeit with a brief spell with sleet or snow could fall to low levels. At 12 days away it's still too early to see what we can muster, especially as we will be waiting another 2 days until the ECM/GEM could possibly pick this up.

[karyo]

Interesting low res from gfs, given my earlier comments about the gefs mean vortex lining up down the Asian side .............

And Ed's upwelling wave makes if all the way to 30hpa by the end of the run!

How likely is a high pressure cell to start its journey from the mid Atlantic and make it to Greenland? At the same time the vortex is supposed to be re-organising at the 30hpa level.

[Jason M]

The pub run is exactly how I saw jan playing out in the winter forecast - high lattitude blocking over greenland & continental type flows over the UK -

If we are going to get anywhere close to the forecast the OP evolution needs to varify very close, not the GFS (p) Pub!!!

S

 

 

oh, I don't know... GFSP looks like its just taking a little longer.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

 

GFS opp just looks a bit clean and a bit quick to me. Oddly its not that cold either, but presumably would be a couple of days later. GEFS will be interesting this evening.

[Daniel*]

Really getting fed up with the "Ahhh no SSW anticipated" or oh MJO is not playing favourable thus "game set and match... " the weather is much more dynamic and sporadic, its never clear cut. I would much rather be a meteorologist lets say, 50 years ago there is just too many variables to play with nowadays. I think it is out of order to come to assumptions ruling out Jan ect ect, when we have difficulty forecasting the track of Fridays LP, time will tell as always but some of you come to assumptions like psychics. Sometimes you just need some luck, these background signals are really just droplets in a big ocean. The overwhelming influence to our weather patterns is the Jet stream, we have got too advanced in my honest opinion.

[Mucka]

So the GFS op goes Greenland high, whilst the Parallel builds the Azores high a little further north which brings a cooler and more settled period, albeit with a brief spell with sleet or snow could fall to low levels. At 12 days away it's still too early to see what we can muster, especially as we will be waiting another 2 days until the ECM/GEM could possibly pick this up.

 

Yeah and even then ECM has a tendency to exaggerate the prospects of any blocking in FI so we likely will still be questioning any blocking. Then again that will make it all the more worrying if it shows a flat pattern come the time.

One thing on GFSp (even though it deepest FI) that is a very cold and blocked pattern beginning to set up so no fireworks but a nice slow burner.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Mucka

[Mucka]

ECM London ensembles showing a cooling trend after mid month.

 

[Barry12]

Really getting fed up with the "Ahhh no SSW anticipated" or oh MJO is not playing favourable thus "game set and match... " the weather is much more dynamic and sporadic, its never clear cut. I would much rather be a meteorologist lets say, 50 years ago there is just too many variables to play with nowadays. I think it is out of order to come to assumptions ruling out Jan ect ect, when we have difficulty forecasting the track of Fridays LP, time will tell as always but some of you come to assumptions like psychics. Sometimes you just need some luck, these background signals are really just droplets in a big ocean. The overwhelming influence to our weather patterns is the Jet stream, we have got too advanced in my honest opinion.

 

Completely agree.

 

The Met Office would have an easy job if they could write of cold for months based on the fact there isn't a SSW or a favorable MJO phase.

[Nick F]

Really getting fed up with the "Ahhh no SSW anticipated" or oh MJO is not playing favourable thus "game set and match... " the weather is much more dynamic and sporadic, its never clear cut. I would much rather be a meteorologist lets say, 50 years ago there is just too many variables to play with nowadays. I think it is out of order to come to assumptions ruling out Jan ect ect, when we have difficulty forecasting the track of Fridays LP, time will tell as always but some of you come to assumptions like psychics. Sometimes you just need some luck, these background signals are really just droplets in a big ocean. The overwhelming influence to our weather patterns is the Jet stream, we have got too advanced in my honest opinion.

I don't think anyone I've seen on here has come to assumptions like 'psychics'. Those that use tropical oscillations, such as MJO or ENSO forecasts and stratospheric modelling to predict how these may force the pattern in the mid-high latitudes of the northern hemisphere have plenty of empirical evidence to merit a stab at a medium to long range forecast, but with the usual caveats of course.

Predicting the weather will never be an exact science, but there can be some limited success at predicting a few weeks or more on the broad scale patterns, but certainly not with any detail or exact timescale.

Making predictions using well established scientific correlations can be fun, even if it doesn't come to fruition, certainly more fun than going back 50 years ago and with the limited data and science and only able to forecast up to a week or perhaps less with any success.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Nick F

[snowblues]

I know it's all in the far reaches but both gfs and gfsp both show the majority of the polar,well it doesn't really look like a vortex at that stage completely displaced in half.The models must be picking up on a big change or just got the pattern wrong in the early stages then just continuing to a super cold outlook for us all to be disappointed .Hope not.

[weather_it_will]

I can't see any major pattern change from what we have now up to 19th January.

GEFS ensembles mainly showing a westerly influence.

Anyone thinking SSW will change things is more likely straw clutching at this stage, as same SSW fanatics were disappointed last winter.