Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[Frosty.]

The models are continuing to dangle a wintry carrot in FI with Arctic air flooding south and height rises to the NW and a possibly sustainable cold pattern shown by the GEFS 06z control run.

[snowice]

So after all it looks very much like the Met winter forecast is going to be correct, over the signs and signals that many thought would Bring us a cold heart of winter.

Yes 6 weeks left etc, but there is very little in the output to suggest a cold spell is even close. Northerly/north easterly that was showing on GFS has now gone, the Strat warming fades away with nothing showing in the depths of the low res.

PM flow won't bring widespread snow/ice days. I just can't see where deep cold is going to come from now. Please if you do, then enlighten me.

In some ways, this has been more frustrating than last winter. At lest we had some decent storms to entertain us.

Great post I think there has been to much emphasis on stratospheric warming this winter,at the end of the day it's were the Hp cells set up home, and we're the jet Goes.The models have been very poor past 168hr and the Azores high is a nightmare for our winters.I think it's a roll of the dice to get the set up in our latitude.Still haven't given up not over by a long way,and there are some brilliant contributers on this thread which make it more interesting!

[stratty]

Positives!  ................look at the 850 mean towards the end of the ensembles - now flattening out near the -5 line - will it go any lower? Something to follow

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres 

 

[Troubleatmill]

The models are continuing to dangle a wintry carrot in FI with Arctic air flooding south and height rises to the NW and a possibly sustainable cold pattern shown by the GEFS 06z control run.

Indeed frosty, I'm unsure where the negativity is coming from this morning,06 ensembles for me are very very promising for a cold spell in mid Jan

[Frosty.]

Indeed frosty, I'm unsure where the negativity is coming from this morning,06 ensembles for me are very very promising for a cold spell in mid Jan

Yes there have been lots of charts similar to what I posted in recent days, too many for anyone to dismiss the possibility of a major cold spell developing, I'm not about to throw in the towel with 65 percent of official winter to go.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Frosty.

[seaside 60]

The models are continuing to dangle a wintry carrot in FI with Arctic air flooding south and height rises to the NW and a possibly sustainable cold pattern shown by the GEFS 06z control run.

Am I missing something here,  1-3c at 6 am in the morning in the middle of Jan, is hardly dream material is it.

I know that they would be lower on the ground, yes its a trend maybe.

I hope that you will be posting similar charts with temps around -4 to -8 over majority of the country soon.

Edited January 4, 2015 by seaside 60

[Barry12]

The trend continues...

 

 

It now starts at day 11...Let's get the heights into Greenland before worrying about what happens after...

Edited January 4, 2015 by Barry95

[winterof79]

Nice agreement at such a long range

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

 

Also 8th and 11th show interest.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015010400/ECU0-168.GIF?04-12

[Snowman.]

Decent signal for mid atlantic ridge.

 

 

This has been showing for days within the GEFS anoms.

 

 

Not really going anywhere trough sinking into europe.

[blizzard81]

Nice agreement at such a long range

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

 

Also 8th and 11th show interest.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015010400/ECU0-168.GIF?04-12

Yes, I am sensing quite a lot of reverse psychology in this forum today. Too many burnt fingers already this season. I think people are a lot more hopeful than they are letting on! The GFS trend to build heights to our north west continues and it has come down to the 11 day mark. It tends to model this area very well imo. I am going to remain positive. Without hope we are nothing.

[Barry12]

Yes the trend continues, but two weeks away and certainly not across the board. Far too risky to think it will turn out like that. If I was a betting man then it would all be on zonal for the rest of January.

 

A couple of days ago, people were posting day 10-16 charts as proof the zonal conditions would continue. Now they are showing cold and heights building into Greenland, the charts are suddenly unreliable again. The trend starts at day 11, so we should see tomorrow if the other models give support to the GFS, if they do then I'd say it's odd on that heights will build into Greenland. What happens after that, is open to question. It could just be a short cold snap, or it could be something more sustained.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Barry95

[Barry12]

Am I missing something here,  1-3c at 6 am in the morning in the middle of Jan, is hardly dream material is it.

I know that they would be lower on the ground, yes its a trend maybe.

I hope that you will be posting similar charts with temps around -4 to -8 over majority of the country soon.

 

There max temps during the whole day, not at 6am. If you are hoping for max temps of -4 to -8 your going to be rather disappointed!

[Nick F]

Talking of temperatures, an 'ice day' looking likely across part of the Midlands, northern Home Counties and parts of East Anglia today. Temps still 0C in places like Cambridge, Coventry Airport and Lakenheath (Suffolk), a few spots -1C.

 

06z GFS likely to be a good 3-4C off the mark with the maxes and even min temps for 15z this afternoon:

 

Min temp 15z

 

Max temp 15z

 

 

[SnOwFeSt]

A week of wet and windy zonal conditions, with alternating tm and pm air looks fairly nailed on, but I can't understand the despondency from some of the posters on here.

Although the vortex continues to rage on our side of the pole, it remains displaced and very fragmented overall. Bags of potential beyond next week, as the heights on he other side of the pole continue to shift around, with plenty of teasers showing up in fi.

I feel it is only a matter of time before the fragmented vortex lines up in our favour. Deep fi shows this nicely, with some good Atlantic heights linking with heights that are currently on the other side of the pole.

In short, loads of potential beyond next week and interesting model watching. For those who are vulnerable to despondency, I'd suggest having a few days off the models, and coming back on Friday/Saturday, when you might be seeing a very interesting pattern emerging into the reliable timeframe.

[seaside 60]

There max temps during the whole day, not at 6am. If you are hoping for max temps of -4 to -8 your going to be rather disappointed!

Apologies, I thought they were the temps for 06am, not the max temps for the day.

Based on my thoughts, -4 to -8 for 6am, I really hope I am not disappointed.

[Captain Shortwave]

Talking of temperatures, an 'ice day' looking likely across part of the Midlands, northern Home Counties and parts of East Anglia today. Temps still 0C in places like Cambridge, Coventry Airport and Lakenheath (Suffolk), a few spots -1C.

 

06z GFS likely to be a good 3-4C off the mark with the maxes and even min temps for 15z this afternoon:

 

Min temp 15z

tmGFS_15.png

 

Max temp 15z

tGFS-15z.png

In defence of the GFS they are right for here in Chelmsford. Shocking despite every temperature station recording sub-zero minima, we didn't even get a ground frost here with temperatures seemingly stuck at 3/4c since yesterday. Really depended on where skies cleared and where freezing fog stuck.

[Sweatyman]

Talking of temperatures, an 'ice day' looking likely across part of the Midlands, northern Home Counties and parts of East Anglia today. Temps still 0C in places like Cambridge, Coventry Airport and Lakenheath (Suffolk), a few spots -1C.

 

06z GFS likely to be a good 3-4C off the mark with the maxes and even min temps for 15z this afternoon:

 

Min temp 15z

tmGFS_15.png

 

Max temp 15z

tGFS-15z.png

yep not got above 0c in brum today

[Nick F]

A week of wet and windy zonal conditions, with alternating tm and pm air looks fairly nailed on, but I can't understand the despondency from some of the posters on here.

Although the vortex continues to rage on our side of the pole, it remains displaced and very fragmented overall. Bags of potential beyond next week, as the heights on he other side of the pole continue to shift around, with plenty of teasers showing up in fi.

I feel it is only a matter of time before the fragmented vortex lines up in our favour. Deep fi shows this nicely, with some good Atlantic heights linking with heights that are currently on the other side of the pole.

 

 

Unfortunately, the stratospheric vortex looks like re-organising over the pole by day 6, currently it's in a temporary split:

 

 

Well organised PV day 10:

The strat vortex appears to be well coupled with the 500mb trop vortex which looks to tighten up over Greenland as we look ahead, so not a great prognosis in the medium range.

 

However, longer range, the MJO may work in our favour if it reaches at least phase 6, but better phases 7/8/1. Unfortunately the CPC MJO dynamic model forecasts are erratically updating atm. So uncertainty on which direction the MJO is headed for now.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Nick F

[Mucka]

Just skimmed through the thread and yet again knee jerk reactions over a single operational run? 

Talk of no sign of cold and temps above average bla bla bla.

Crazy.

There is a building signal for a weakening of the zonal flow around mid month and this accompanied by high pressure anomalies over the Atlantic.

There is solid agreement on the zonal flow to become colder later next week and as I said several days ago there is scope for a heavy snow fall in the run up to mid month.

How does any of that relate mild or no sign of cold etc?

 

As for a pattern change into prolonged deep cold, that is more difficult to make a case for but the zonal conditions we will experience next week will likely not be the form horse.

MLB is, how strong, how persistent, how favourable for cold is unknowable at this point.

My feeling is that a Greenland high is going to be difficult to achieve but an Icelandic high or some other form of favourable MLB is well within realistic expectations  at the moment.

If people are expecting to see fantastic eye candy and HLB just after mid month then they will have a skewed expectation and view of what will likely be on offer.

A rather messy mix looks more likely and the 3rd week of Jan looks like being key for whether blocking or a mobile Westerly type dominates the rest of January.

Any strong blocking will likely appear last 3rd of Jan if this is correct.

It also means there will be a lot of snow chances over the same period albeit marginal events - still these are the type of conditions where heavy falls can occur.

 

I have no idea of the blocking signal will be overrun or it will hold on and restrengthen later as I imagine but the model output clearly demonstrates this as a possiblity as well as giving plentiful snowfall opportunities (more especially in the North) after next weeks potential storms are out of the way.

 

This is MO rollercoaster so buckle up and enjoy the ride - there are plenty pf peaks, dips, twists and turns to come (probably a few screams too, you know who you are)

[Yarmy]

Talking of temperatures, an 'ice day' looking likely across part of the Midlands, northern Home Counties and parts of East Anglia today. Temps still 0C in places like Cambridge, Coventry Airport and Lakenheath (Suffolk), a few spots -1C.

 

06z GFS likely to be a good 3-4C off the mark with the maxes and even min temps for 15z this afternoon:

 

Min temp 15z

tmGFS_15.png

 

Max temp 15z

tGFS-15z.png

 

Yes, Marham looks like it might have maxed out at -1.6C.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/u127sby66

 

So an ice day. Haven't seen one of those in a while.

 

boom

[Winter Cold]

Just looking at tonights 12z GFS's and in the shorter term, the older brother wants to give Scotland a wild night on Thursday, into Friday morning, but the younger brother isnt interested...

 

GFS:

 

GFS(P):

 

[Mucka]

GFS op has AH playing spoiler and so not a particularly good shot at snow falling in the zonal flow. GFSp though could be quite wintry as well as stormy (that would give blizzards over any high ground and snow likely falling to low levels in the North.

 

 

Edit.

 

UKMO also has a deeper trough so hopefully ECM will go the same way and GFS op is wrong.

 

Edited January 4, 2015 by Mucka

[Harsh Climate]

Edited January 4, 2015 by Harsh Climate

[Long haul to mild]

Interesting that below is the chart that gave us an ice day in many parts of the SE today. Quite deceptive I think; if you had that chart appear ahead in the model output no doubt there would be a few predictions of mildness and double figure temperatures!

[Summer Sun]

Just looking at tonights 12z GFS's and in the shorter term, the older brother wants to give Scotland a wild night on Thursday, into Friday morning, but the younger brother isnt interested...

 

GFS:

 

GFS(P):

 

 

GFS P seems to be going for Saturday now

 

 

As that low leaves the next one isn't far behind