Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[fergieweather]

At least its products are free unlike the Uk met and ECM which our taxes pay for.

You can only work with what you have.

...and most of the work by UKMO, MeteoFrance etc wouldn't take place without the raft of commercial enterprise that is their bedrock. It's pointless comparing the unique situation in the US with most other key national forecast centres. UKMO's public-funded area is the PWS (see http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/pws) but it's a common misconception that the whole organisation is 'tax funded': it's not; it's a commercial trading arm.

ECMWF, meanwhile, is a very unique case of co-operational funding so irrelevant as a parallel to the US-NOAA/NWS set-up (see details at http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/news-centre/key-facts-and-figures).

Edited January 3, 2015 by fergieweather

[fergieweather]

The UKMO should go to day 10, just going to day 6 is poor!

It does: via MOGREPS...The GM to T+144 is only a facet of the Unified Model output.

[Barry12]

It does: via MOGREPS...The GM to T+144 is only a facet of the Unified Model output.

 

But it's not freely available!

 

We should all raise money so we can have a Netweather model

[knocker]

But it's not freely available!

 

We should all raise money so we can have a Netweather model

 

And a bit more so you could have your own radars.

[fergieweather]

EC 12Z clusters currently offer a strong mirror to NCEP solutions post-T+312, i.e. with pronounced Atlantic ridging and broadscale trough diving to E. However, as I commented yesterday, there's a way to go before this emerging trend yields any worthwhile confidence and equally, whether it's merely transient.

[knocker]

Some help required here is my take on the dynamic trop. chart roughly correct?

Chart courtesy weatherbell.

Ridge western US with cold plunge to the east. WAA western Atlantic Greenland with unstable cooler NW airstream NW Europe.

 

[Timmytour]

Interesting to see signs in the later stages of the models for height rises in Greenland despite a strong looking PV. This would tie in with my thinking of the OPI...it's not a reference to how strong the PV will look over the following winter, but how strong its roots are and hence how vulnerable it would be to the right kind of pressure being exerted upon it.  My hope is that under the surface, it's not very strong at all and that one day soon it will be attacked from the Atlantic and give way!

[bluearmy]

EC 12Z clusters currently offer a strong mirror to NCEP solutions post-T+312, i.e. with pronounced Atlantic ridging and broadscale trough diving to E. However, as I commented yesterday, there's a way to go before this emerging trend yields any worthwhile confidence and equally, whether it's merely transient.

 

i was just about to ask you this ian. the mean towards the end of week 2 actually show a little upper ridge appearing iceland/greenland and there is a whiff of WAA against the low mean in the greenland locale.

 

setting this against the low anomoly to our ne slowly sinking s across nw europe and you ave a similar picture to the GEFS.  at this stage, i wouldnt say there is any evidence it would be transient or longer lasting. the mean vortex appearing to shrink back to canada but sticking some energy into the northern arm at the same time. now if we have a cut off gricelandic ridge by that time ...........

[knocker]

EC 12Z clusters currently offer a strong mirror to NCEP solutions post-T+312, i.e. with pronounced Atlantic ridging and broadscale trough diving to E. However, as I commented yesterday, there's a way to go before this emerging trend yields any worthwhile confidence and equally, whether it's merely transient.

 

Thanks fergie that saves me looking at the mean anomaly and being hung out to dry. I noticed the GEFS went for this but backed down at T384.

[carinthian]

...and most of the work by UKMO, MeteoFrance etc wouldn't take place without the raft of commercial enterprise that is their bedrock. It's pointless comparing the unique situation in the US with most other key national forecast centres. UKMO's public-funded area is the PWS (see http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/pws) but it's a common misconception that the whole organisation is 'tax funded': it's not; it's a commercial trading arm.

ECMWF, meanwhile, is a very unique case of co-operational funding so irrelevant as a parallel to the US-NOAA/NWS set-up (see details at http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/news-centre/key-facts-and-figures).

I remember 40 years ago everything the Met Office provided was free of charge. Public funded, yes and part of the MOD Budget in those days. The boss, Dr Mason was a free spirit and innovator to make the weather service open to the public. Indeed by 1970, two weather shops opened to the public, one in Manchester and the other in London. Both staffed by members of the weather centres in the cities. In my time at Manchester, the public could walk in off the city streets, chat with the forecasters, view all the charts available at the time , including the rainfall radar charts and 5 day forecast charts. The DWR North Atlantic Charts were available by subscription and the only cost was the postage. So yes , the British Met Office offered a great public service , free of charge, a long time ago now.Of course, cost cutting in the late 70s due to severe economic problems put paid to this open and free service. What I conclude to is : I feel the open face of the Met Office in those days provided a better public service, Knowledgeable, free and a telephone chat away to the expert likes of Ian Mccaskill and dare I say it a younger John HoLmes in those days.

C

Edited January 3, 2015 by carinthian

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

i was just about to ask you this ian. the mean towards the end of week 2 actually show a little upper ridge appearing iceland/greenland and there is a whiff of WAA against the low mean in the greenland locale.

 

setting this against the low anomoly to our ne slowly sinking s across nw europe and you ave a similar picture to the GEFS.  at this stage, i wouldnt say there is any evidence it would be transient or longer lasting. the mean vortex appearing to shrink back to canada but sticking some energy into the northern arm at the same time. now if we have a cut off gricelandic ridge by that time ...........

Hi Ba Sorry what is WAA

[Summer Sun]

Hi Ba Sorry what is WAA

 

 

Warm air advection

Edited January 3, 2015 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

Warm air advection

 

its when warm uppers are transported north and 'blow up' high heights to their east.

[Stuie]

EC 12Z clusters currently offer a strong mirror to NCEP solutions post-T+312, i.e. with pronounced Atlantic ridging and broadscale trough diving to E. However, as I commented yesterday, there's a way to go before this emerging trend yields any worthwhile confidence and equally, whether it's merely transient.

Blimey Ian, T+312? That is a long straw.

[fergieweather]

Blimey Ian, T+312? That is a long straw.

Precisely...!!

[Stuie]

Precisely...!!

Ok a fraction earlier T222 with no ridge, the CFS has a bit of an onslaught. Is the CFS just a gimmick?

[fergieweather]

Ok a fraction earlier T222 with no ridge, the CFS has a bit of an onslaught. Is the CFS just a gimmick?

EC still signals the potential for deep lows over UK at T+264 before things then hint at a relaxation.

[ANYWEATHER]

Wintry weather looks possible for next weekend according to the models for a greater part of the uk, of course a very unreliable timeframe but something worth while keeping our eyes on...

[damianslaw]

A very unsettled output from all the models for the foreseeable future, but with a trend to cooler conditions generally with a bit more buckle in the Jetstream once we get through next week.

 

Next week looks very wet in NW parts and preety unpleasant thanks to strong winds-  a very typical synoptical outlook for early January.

[Frosty.]

I like how the Ecm 12z ensemble mean is trending tonight, progressively colder and beyond T+240 hours it would continue to turn colder and colder, big improvement from last night.

[Cloud 10]

I like how the Ecm 12z ensemble mean is trending tonight, progressively colder and beyond T+240 hours it would continue to turn colder and colder, big improvement from last night.

 

Was just going to comment on that Frosty,looks to be trending towards colder zoniality with not much

opportunity for milder interludes.

[Winter Cold]

i was just about to ask you this ian. the mean towards the end of week 2 actually show a little upper ridge appearing iceland/greenland and there is a whiff of WAA against the low mean in the greenland locale.

 

setting this against the low anomoly to our ne slowly sinking s across nw europe and you ave a similar picture to the GEFS.  at this stage, i wouldnt say there is any evidence it would be transient or longer lasting. the mean vortex appearing to shrink back to canada but sticking some energy into the northern arm at the same time. now if we have a cut off gricelandic ridge

 

HAHA, ive not heard that term before BA   I like it!

 

Some great posts tonight from many people, very interesting to read. Been some good MJO info to aid my learning and a lot of cautiously optimistic reasoned posts.

 

I do really hope that we are now starting to see the emergance of something exciting and longer lasting than a toppler. Just maybe....coldies patience is about to be rewarded.......

[bluearmy]

NAEFS not quite as inspirational as ecm (and that isnt a snowfilled nirvana as yet) - looks like the canadian ens responsible for that.  worth giving them a day or so to see if they catch on. 

 

going back to the poor analog confidence on the gefs superens mean from yesterday, it gets even stranger with the day 8 analog dropping to 0.72 whilst day 11 has risen to a more respectable 0.82.

 

given that coldies are more interested in the latter stages of the output, i suppose thats a good sign.  i always think a weaker analog means something is less likely to verify.

[nick sussex]

The ECM ensembles that we can see via De Bilt continue with their morning trend in developing a colder cluster from day 11, towards the end we see more spread in terms of wind directions. The main wind clusters in terms of direction and associated dew points suggest a cyclonic set up.

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

 

PS was flicking through the sat earlier and was surprised to see one of my all time favourites from the BBC, the wonderful Rob McElwee doing the weather for Al Jazeera. IMO he was a great loss for the BBC. He was one of us and hadn't gone over to the dark side, lol!

[damianslaw]

Was just going to comment on that Frosty,looks to be trending towards colder zoniality with not much

opportunity for milder interludes.

 

 

Yes echo these thoughts - a pattern not too dissimilar to early-mid December which delivered a lot of snow to higher ground in the north in particular, I would expect a colder version of that said period  which would certainly increase likelihood of preety cold conditions more so in the north.

 

A theme of the winter so far has been a trend for milder interludes to be relatively shortlived with a greater dig of polar maritime air, the events of Christmas being a good example despite the very mild interlude in the run in to the festive period.

 

So whilst the models continue to show a very mobile atlantic set up - by no means are they showing a sustained mild SW airflow dominated affair - in contrast to last winter.