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Model Output Discussion; into 2015


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Have you any references for that?

Not of hand no but I'm sure you remember the winters of 08 09 10 and 11

Whilst it's only really been the last two to 3 years that activity has picked up.

Although must apologise for it being of topic but unlike mr ice age sunspot hunter I don't like to hype up the Suns effects to much as there have been exceptions to higher solar activity and wintry uk.

But there's most certainly connections with solar and pattern drivers here on earth.

Hopefully I be able to start collecting data as activity on the sun declines or should I say when it does.

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12z clusters are offering glimpses of a different story after mid-month with markedly more meridional pattern(s), but of course it's just not worth detailing all that stuff showing out post-15 Jan unt

Some very poor quality posts have been creeping into the discussion which really don't add anything to the thread apart from raising the ire of many who view this thread....Even a simpleton (in meteor

Nice tease from the ECM, no surprise looking at the strat charts, shame it can't happen though because apparently cold is not possible before Mid Jan!?!   Rule nothing out folks, as I posted yeste

Posted Images

Trying to find some positives from tonights operational outputs upto day ten. :whistling:

 

I maybe some time.......................................................

 

Okay I've waved the white flag! The operationals are all in agreement for a spell of mild mobile weather upto day ten, any signs of life re cold are showing up on a few GEFS ensembles but well into FI.

 

I think we're left with two options barring the emergency trip to Lapland , the MJO I'm actually more interested in than the current modelling and so we wait to see of this can survive and move into phase 7 at a decent amplitude. So far this winter its hit a brickwall ,  annoyingly at present even with this current strat warming Berlin Uni which has some key charts hasn't updated, the effect if any of that warming seems hard to quantify.

 

One of course could look at the PV and think what strat warming, I mean could the output have looked any worse anyway!

 

Whether theres some effect on the PV during the rest of January we'll just have to wait and see, of course waiting and patience seems the mantra that's been in evidence for the last 5 weeks for cold and snow lovers.

 

I think realistically we should just view the next ten days as likely to deliver little if any cold interest, I'm willing to give it to next week and then hope the output upto T240hrs begins to show a bit more interest if not expect to see a plethora of these clogging up my posts :help: .

You are our only hope, Frosty. Its only your optimistic posts which keep me on this forum!

The GEFS 12z mean trends colder between T+240 and the end of the run, another good sign. I think beyond mid month we could be looking at a wintry pattern.

 

Sorry, posted in the wrong place just now, but you need to know that its only your optimism which keeps me on this forum!

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Which mid-month? February, March or next December! lol Frosty do you know those stages of grief I think you're stuck in denial, I've moved onto acceptance. :smiliz19:

You're turning into the Mary Poppins of NW, far too happy and optimistic, but you do make me laugh, you can always find something good in the outputs.

If something appears within the T240hrs timeframe then I might get a bit more interested, if not I'm going to maintain my current miserable stance!

LOL Nick cheer up, I'm seeing positives from mid Jan, am I the only one seeing colder solutions beyond the 15th? Heck I'm even posting charts more often. :-)

PS..thanks musician..and Nick, keep the faith, your input is so important on here, especially when you are being positive, by the way, I hated the ecm tonight..lol

Edited by Frosty.
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You are our only hope, Frosty. Its only your optimistic posts which keep me on this forum!

 

Sorry, posted in the wrong place just now, but you need to know that its only your optimism which keeps me on this forum!

Yes Frosty always puts a smile on my face, he's always up for a laugh so hopefully didn't mind my Mary Poppins comparison!

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LOL Nick cheer up, I'm seeing positives from mid Jan, an I the only one seeing colder solutions beyond the 15th?

You're back, for a second I thought my misery was catching! lol I agree theres a few GEFS which are better but I'd like to see something showing at T240hrs.

 

Reading the CPC discussion however they're going for low amplitude upstream between day 8 to 14, I really think we need some help from the MJO, the strat warmings so far haven't done a great deal to dislodge the limpet PV or it moves then gets homesick quickly!

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At day 8, the ECM and GFS show we really have a mountain to climb

ECM

ECM1-192.GIF?02-0

GFS

gfs-0-192.png?12

Parallel

gfs-0-192.png?12

Well above average pressure over south west Europe. Lets hope it doesn't take an age to shift.

Backed up by the ensembles

gens-21-1-192.png

Average pressure of 1040mb or higher, high amount of certainty on that high building in at the start of week 2.

 

GFS ens do suggest a cool down by the end of week 2, but still a long way off. The first half of January looks to be above average in terms of temperatures, lets hope the second half can at least bring this down to below average for the month.

it looks bleak, but the eternal optimist in me says it's not really all that different to the positioning and strength of the high pressure ten days or so before 1947 really got going....

 

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Which mid-month? February, March or next December! lol Frosty do you know those stages of grief I think you're stuck in denial, I've moved onto acceptance. :smiliz19:

 

You're turning into the Mary Poppins of NW, far too happy and optimistic, but you do make me laugh, you can always find something good in the outputs.

 

If something appears within the T240hrs timeframe then I might get a bit more interested, if not I'm going to maintain my current miserable stance!

I think some of you could do with taking a break from looking at every single model run

It was November then and we had all winter ahead of us. Now we don't have that luxury.

No we have the luxury of having over 2/3 rds of it left

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Are you seriously suggesting the charts are similar ?

The charts posted by captain shortwave are as unfavourable to cold as you can possibly face a week into January if they verify - from there there is no quick route to cold despite your dubious November 2010 analogy

 

 

It is never a good idea to take a single snapshot in time in FI and make a judgement on the trend.

If there is any trend toward colder weather it will be from a deep trough caused by the PV moving back East which is programmed to happen between the 10th and 12th. (so just after the AH is expected to be at its peak influence upon our shores)

If you want a better idea of cold chances you need to look at how that period develops and if we can get some more amplification in the pattern around mid month.

The Azores high may look very strong in a snapshot (and it may well play spoiler) but it could easily be displaced by a large chunk of the PV wanting to move SE.

Edited by Mucka
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it looks bleak, but the eternal optimist in me says it's not really all that different to the positioning and strength of the high pressure ten days or so before 1947 really got going....

 

We can certainly hope. At this present time I think we will be stuck in this westerly pattern until mid-month. Probably high confidence on that, especially with the model agreement to day 10 being pretty rock solid. Beyond that I don't know, we will have to wait and see if low heights recede from the north west. 

To be honest I would take a February 2005 to be honest, that was decent for this part of the world with a couple of big snow events. Would be a more modern version of a late blooming winter.

archives-2005-2-20-0-0.png

archives-2005-2-24-0-0.png

archives-2005-2-28-0-0.png

 

ECM ens - Swear filter and all :p

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Just looked at tonights models. Desperate charts for Europe, mild and snowless all the way. Got a snow drought here, really hopeless outlook for cold lovers. Just got to grin and bear it. Those winters of the 60s and late 70s must seem along ago in England. No frost fairs in Holland again. Outdoor skating races cancelled yet again. God this will turn a soul to drink,probabaly has in my case, its a refuge from those retentless blow torch charts churning out every 6 hours.

Good night blighty.

C

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If youre expecting a 1947/63 or even a 2010 winter in the first half of this month, better go to Greenland :w00t:  To be honest, the models in the next ten days spread a normal winter pattern ,with rain ,sleet ,snow, gales ,sunshine, frost across the Uk, its early Winter, plenty of change to deeper cold later on ,just be glad  we have this rather than last years weather. I bow out in Silence :closedeyes:

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My last positive thought for tonight is hopefully the ecm will have improved by the 00z. The good thing about the models is there is always that hope that the next run will be better, clean slate for the 00z.

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Are you seriously suggesting the charts are similar ?

The charts posted by captain shortwave are as unfavourable to cold as you can possibly face a week into January if they verify - from there there is no quick route to cold despite your dubious November 2010 analogy

I'm not the one sayng "no cold for 3 weeks" based on single charts 8 days away... happy for you to post your logic backed up by suitable charts etc?  FWIW, i think the models are happier predicting endless zonal and will miss the trigger signal for cold (whatever it might be...) once it arrives.  It's also possible that higher heights will arrive from the arctic high as that's been suggested ina few runs, but you won't see that just looking at Europe charts.

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12z clusters are offering glimpses of a different story after mid-month with markedly more meridional pattern(s), but of course it's just not worth detailing all that stuff showing out post-15 Jan until we see a fair few more output cycles for signs of continuity.

The means and anomolys just can't let go of the higher heights to our south so it's good to read that the clusters are picking something up. Thanks for the info Ian.

Edited by bluearmy
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12z clusters are offering glimpses of a different story after mid-month with markedly more meridional pattern(s), but of course it's just not worth detailing all that stuff showing out post-15 Jan until we see a fair few more output cycles for signs of continuity.

Any crumbs of comfort, however small, will be seized upon I'm sure! Will be interesting to see if these signs are indeed maintained in future runs.

Although it has to be said that for those in the South looking for snow, a meridional pattern alone would not likely deliver much, but hopefully something better could develop from that starting point.

Edited by Long haul to mild
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12z clusters are offering glimpses of a different story after mid-month with markedly more meridional pattern(s), but of course it's just not worth detailing all that stuff showing out post-15 Jan until we see a fair few more output cycles for signs of continuity.

hi, this seems to tie in with something that has been bought up in the strat thread for 14+ days time.

hope the trend continues, its going to be along 10+days plus until we know any different.

 

fromey

Edited by fromey
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12z clusters are offering glimpses of a different story after mid-month with markedly more meridional pattern(s), but of course it's just not worth detailing all that stuff showing out post-15 Jan until we see a fair few more output cycles for signs of continuity.

So yesterday it was a very low confidence of westerly pattern waining 2nd half of Jan... does this mean that more signs are showing that westerly pattern will wain and our weather looks more like it could come from the north..??

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In response to the post about the jetstream (which has mysteriously gone awol. :rolleyes: ) the chart below

from the GFS at 168 hrs seems a good example of a very powerful jet roaring across the atlantic.

 

post-2839-0-43434500-1420236173_thumb.pn

 

 

The jetstream shown on this chart is at 300hpa which is about 30,000 feet so can't be used to give a measurement at ground level for wind gusts,although it can be instrumental in the formation of deep Low pressure systems which could in themselves bring high winds at ground level.

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I'm not the one sayng "no cold for 3 weeks" based on single charts 8 days away... happy for you to post your logic backed up by suitable charts etc?  FWIW, i think the models are happier predicting endless zonal and will miss the trigger signal for cold (whatever it might be...) once it arrives.  It's also possible that higher heights will arrive from the arctic high as that's been suggested ina few runs, but you won't see that just looking at Europe charts.

Ok, it's far out in FI, but does illustrate the point I was trying to make...

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

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The week 2 gfs ops are certainly picking a signal for a fragmentation of the trop vortex and general relaxation in hemispheric heights. Let's hope they're onto something.

 

I'd say a mid month toppler is looking more and more likely. Question is can we then go onto develop something more worthwhile. I think a major crossroads coming mid month.......

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&carte=1

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(Edit: incase any of the other hosts/mods/admins saw my post earlier (though did quickly delete it), would like to apologise, as I pressed the 'Model Topic Reminder Post' button by mistake).

But just a very quick look at the models, and would agree with most that there's nothing particularly cold showing at the moment with cyclonic conditions mostly invading the North and Higher Pressure being more invasive to the South (though things could still possibly change somewhat. However, with that Vortex being quite a monster to the North-West, I think I would agree that a fairly, flattish, Westerly pattern could just lock in for a while). Some cool Polar Maritime flows could be possible for the North at times, maybe with sleet and snow over high ground. Also, tomorrow, apart from the far South where milder temperatures are likely, and also Sunday, should be mostly on the cool/cold side for places. Generally fairly standard stuff for January.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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