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Model Output Discussion; into 2015

martthefart

By martthefart
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

forget the GFS, ECM & MOGREPS output.........I've just got a very expensive subscription to the new PHROAR model, and it looks full of wintry promise to me

 

attachicon.gif1920x1080.jpg

 

I'll fetch me coat

 

 

Happy New Year Folks!! 

That doesn't look much of a cold front to me,can we trust this model :w00t:

 

any hose back to mod discussion,be interesting to see how much further north this ridge gets,and doesn't the gfs have a east bais?

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL :gathering::drunk:

Edited by Allseasons-si
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
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Posted

and as you can see, the latest PHROAR output (see below)

 

post-4149-0-01135500-1420048044_thumb.jp

 

 

has led to a serious Sudden Stratospheric Warming as the chart below illustrates

 

post-4149-0-76048600-1420048160_thumb.pn

 

winter's coming!

 

 

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted

and as you can see, the latest PHROAR output (see below)

 

attachicon.gif1920x1080.jpg

 

 

has led to a serious Sudden Stratospheric Warming as the chart below illustrates

 

attachicon.gifviewimage (14).png

 

winter's coming!

 

This is a good sign for coldies but this is a new model can we possibly trust it?

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

and as you can see, the latest PHROAR output (see below)

 

attachicon.gif1920x1080.jpg

 

 

has led to a serious Sudden Stratospheric Warming as the chart below illustrates

 

attachicon.gifviewimage (14).png

 

winter's coming!

'winter' liked the picture that much???

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Hmm. Saturday could be about to get more interesting for a wider swathe of the north. EC12Z stamps awaited with growing interest..

I suspect these 'surprise' events could be more widespread over the next 10 days than some currently realise. Elevation will always help.

The GEFS 12z are a complete spread of solutions. No point trying to dissect too much in the longer term. Over the next 10/14 days - wind/ rain/ frost/ possibly snow oop norf - only the kitchen sink missing. but where will the charts be in two weeks? That's a toughy.

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted (edited)

As I just alluded to on the strat thread, there are some subtle changes out in lala land towards the end of low res. Indications of slow movement of heights towards Greenland from either side of the pole, though nothing to write home about at this point. Perhaps an affect of the strat changes? perhaps not, but either way a move away from uniform zonality tonight - at least in low res on the GEFS suite.

 

GFSP:

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

 

gensnh-2-1-372.png

 

 

gensnh-6-1-372.png

 

 

gensnh-16-1-372.png

 

 

gensnh-19-1-372.png

 

 

gensnh-15-1-372.png

 

 

The mean is still woeful for where low lying southern areas would like it to be, but emerging reasons for optimism to end the year I'd say. Would also tie in with Meto predictions too.

 

 

Edited by ITSY
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Hmm. Saturday could be about to get more interesting for a wider swathe of the north. EC12Z stamps awaited with growing interest..

Oh you tease! lol Is that in relation to a possible shallow low crossing east with snow on the northern flank? I doubt by interesting you mean stormy conditions as I think you now know what coded language to use here in NW!

Edited by nick sussex
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Oh you tease! lol Is that in relation to a possible shallow low crossing east with snow on the northern flank? I doubt by interesting you mean stormy conditions as I think you now know what coded language to use here in NW!

Looks like a sign of potential for snow Pennines North on the GEFS.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

Hmm. Saturday could be about to get more interesting for a wider swathe of the north. EC12Z stamps awaited with growing interest..

I did post earlier about the possibility of this by GFS P

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Looks like a sign of potential for snow Pennines North on the GEFS.

Not to blow my own trumpet but I was on about that possible shallow low about 3 days ago, any chance of a job at the UKMO! :smiliz19:

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

From looking at the GEFS esembles, the pertubation's are about 70-30 against snow on saturday (for low lying northern areas/exluding scotland).

 

Quite a difference from each member on what will happen though.

 

For example: pertubation 13

 

gens-13-2-72.png?12

 

Pertubation 1:

 

gens-1-2-72.png?12

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Cheese Rice Community Regular

Cheese Rice

Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
Posted

Yep GFS P agrees with this as well

 

75-780PUK.GIF?31-1278-780PUK.GIF?31-12

Been watching this for a while. Hopefully it comes to fruition.

The netwx-MR model shows a noticeable rain shadow east of the Pennines.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Well fergie latest ecm has the midlands in the firing line for snow on Saturday! !! Very interesting as gfs agrees although uppers are slightly higher!!

 

yeah shaky, did you get any luck boxing day? different this one though

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Oh dear big disagreement between the ECM and UKMO at just T72hrs with the former taking a shallow feature across the south, the UKMO has the low much further north.

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
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Posted

Well fergie latest ecm has the midlands in the firing line for snow on Saturday! !! Very interesting as gfs agrees although uppers are slightly higher!!

Quite. Earlier hints for this among EC-EPS with 12z UKMO-GM (and GFS) sniffing a similar idea now. How markedly the circulation is closed remains the key question for perusal in 12z EC stamps. Some forecast headaches mirroring those endured a few days back, me thinks...

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Popular Post
Posted

Quite. Earlier hints for this among EC-EPS with 12z UKMO-GM (and GFS) sniffing a similar idea now. How markedly the circulation is closed remains the key question for perusal in 12z EC stamps. Some forecast headaches mirroring those endured a few days back, me thinks...

at least for us in the points west catchment area, the forecast is easy..........rain......unless of course ECM, UMKO & PHROAR upgrade?  :smiliz19:  :80:

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Quite. Earlier hints for this among EC-EPS with 12z UKMO-GM (and GFS) sniffing a similar idea now. How markedly the circulation is closed remains the key question for perusal in 12z EC stamps. Some forecast headaches mirroring those endured a few days back, me thinks...

Yes this looks like a bit of a forecasting nightmare. I think evaporative cooling might play a big role here given the slack flow, its funny how in the midst of a seemingly unfavourable cold set up these possible little surprises can pop up.

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

Yes this looks like a bit of a forecasting nightmare. I think evaporative cooling might play a big role here given the slack flow, its funny how in the midst of a seemingly unfavourable cold set up these possible little surprises can pop up.

Correct. Deja vu...and it was a mare last time.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Correct. Deja vu...and it was a mare last time.

You really don't need this type of set up! I don't envy you at all Ian because  become these situations often turn into a nowcast type scenario.

 

I hope people give the UKMO some slack here because this marginal set up is difficult, indeed I think this one of it verifies is even more hard to forecast than the one on Boxing Day especially if the models don't agree on the track.

Edited by nick sussex
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

yeah shaky, did you get any luck boxing day? different this one though

yes i did and considering how wet it was am surprised it settled pretty much straightaway and that was in the city centre itself! ! This looks very again for the midlands! ! Noticed the gfs parallel was futher north with the shortwave but has shoved it south again so can only be a good thing for central parts if its snow your after!! Was mentioning it this afternoon whilst everybody was going on about the zonality we are about to endure! !!
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Eugene Accomplished

Eugene

Posted
Posted

Oh dear big disagreement between the ECM and UKMO at just T72hrs with the former taking a shallow feature across the south, the UKMO has the low much further north.

 

 

Yeah with such disagreements and a sudden pressure rise for early next week being progged by the Euro's and GFS shows how foolish it is to write off even the first half of January.

 

In winter the models struggle at even T+72hrs.

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