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martthefart

Model Output Discussion; into 2015

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last winter was incredibly mild overall, wasn't it?

No I think you are wrong there, it was cool zonal, certainly not exceptionally mild, we could compromise by calling it technically mild but with rather cold and showery incursions, and of course extremely wet and stormy which offset any mild temps.

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The latest GFS run only goes out to the 16th of Jan. I think most people accept that we are very unlikely to see any sustained deep cold before then. To me it doesn't look overly mild though and I actually quite like wind and rain and it will certainly feel cool up here in the north at least!

 

It has been a decent little cold spell here in north west Leeds - my back lawn still has a covering of snow and many of the rooftops are still white with frost. So in that respect it's already far better than last year. Additionally, while 12/13 was very snowy we had a real lack of the cold crisp clear days I've just enjoyed over the past week.

 

So cheer up folks, it's time to start scanning the far reaches of FI for hints of the cold to come.

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This is the shortwave:

 

post-1206-0-58432600-1420024996_thumb.pn

 

The 00hrs GEFS member develops the same, this cuts se allowing for some ridging to the ne to extend sw.

 

Until the models completely shut the door on this I'm going to go into my "happy bubble"!

 

We should bear in mind that just as models once they start flattening a pattern the trend seems only one way sometimes the reverse can occur, in this instance the background strat warming over Greenland may well help to add a bit more last minute amplitude to the pattern.

 

Even with this the PV still looks too strong but stranger things have happened, I remember many moons ago we were awaiting cold and all the GEFS ensembles bar one went with that, there was one rogue ensemble which I remember we at the time thought what if, it surely couldn't happen and then the next output the operational went with that one milder run. Now of course we're hoping for the reverse situation here.

 

It's still a very low probability and I'm only highlighting this because its the only remotely interesting thing on the outputs today!

Edited by nick sussex

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I think last winter was cool zonal overall, we don't seem to be making much progress apart from the occasional cold blip do we?

 

Hmmm not for most of lowland England - it was zonal all right but not cool.  Wet, stormy and very mild sums up last winter.

Edited by mulzy

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Where is that output Karl?

 

That is very misleading

post-15177-0-78138200-1420025561_thumb.p

You can always add a degree or two on to that..

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Glimmer of hope on the GFSP at day 9?

 

gfsnh-0-216.png?6

 

Yes, it gets flattened out on this run but not a done deal....

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This is the shortwave:

 

attachicon.gifgfsnh-0-162.png

 

The 00hrs GEFS member develops the same, this cuts se allowing for some ridging to the ne to extend sw.

 

Until the models completely shut the door on this I'm going to go into my "happy bubble"!

 

We should bear in mind that just as models once they start flattening a pattern the trend seems only one way sometimes the reverse can occur, in this instance the background strat warming over Greenland may well help to add a bit more last minute amplitude to the pattern.

 

Even with this the PV still looks too strong but stranger things have happened, I remember many moons ago we were awaiting cold and all the GEFS ensembles bar one went with that, there was one rogue ensemble which I remember we at the time thought what if, it surely couldn't happen and then the next output the operational went with that one milder run. Now of course we're hoping for the reverse situation here.

 

It's still a very low probability and I'm only highlighting this because its the only remotest interesting thing on the outputs today!

 

Yes only five other members support that more amplified evolution and bearing in mind the GFS P leans towards the ECM for over amplifying, as you said, low probability. Even it does become the outcome, as you can see all it does is allow time for the PV to drain and reorganise in the Greenland/Arctic Canada region ready to erupt at anytime. No way is that ridge ever going to hold back the PV lobe:

 

post-14819-0-81047700-1420025729_thumb.p

 

None of the other five can resist the PV onslaught by D11 and the mean is horrid: post-14819-0-34224600-1420025918_thumb.p

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attachicon.gifviewimage.png

You can always add a degree or two on to that..

Sorry but isn't that image from midnight on Thursday? I always get confused by 00.00 Friday I would have though that 00.01 was Friday but could be totally wrong. However if so then there is a cold front to clear south with cold air behind so those temperatures would drop as dawn approaches. I think..... :cc_confused:

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At the moment, the winter thus far has been a roaring success for the ECM extended ens mean /anomoly. the only cold period (now) was picked by them and the return to a flat pattern upcoming also. We now need for them to be wrong. Just as the strat warming in the Greenland/n Atlantic area appeared to come from nowhere, so we need this newfound amplification to our ne to become the way forward. Nothing is going to amplify to our west with that intense Canadian vortex but a scandi ridge can survive an upstream intense Canadian vortex.

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IDO if it wasn't for the strat warming over Greenland then I'd completely rule out any last minute changes. And of course the PV looks hideous in terms of strength.However it's noticeable that the GFS 06hrs keeps the strongest part of that warming going on for longer.

 

Of course its a longshot and any ridging might well be blasted away quickly by the PV but I'll give it to tonight to see if theres any mileage in this.

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Morning all,

 

All models in agreement then,a period of zonality set to take over.I wouldn't be too bullish over how long it will last though and definatly wont be righting off the rest of this month that is just plain ridiculous,weve seen cold modelled at relatively short notice and out of the blue in the past and with the current pattern I see no reason why this isn't still the possible.One or two posters comparing similarities with this year and last,sorry but I just don't see them,the zonal flow last year was a lot stronger.This year IMBY weve seen five days of lying snow and recorded 10 air frosts since the start of December I think that by far exceeds last years winter total already.

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Glimmer of hope on the GFSP at day 9?

 

gfsnh-0-216.png?6

 

Yes, it gets flattened out on this run but not a done deal....

but it doesn't get flattened... it survives and gets sucked up into the siberian high. i think if this does happen, it will be a fatal wound for the PV

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At the moment, the winter thus far has been a roaring success for the ECM extended ens mean /anomoly. the only cold period (now) was picked by them and the return to a flat pattern upcoming also. We now need for them to be wrong. Just as the strat warming in the Greenland/n Atlantic area appeared to come from nowhere, so we need this newfound amplification to our ne to become the way forward. Nothing is going to amplify to our west with that intense Canadian vortex but a scandi ridge can survive an upstream intense Canadian vortex.

Yes, the ridging to the north east does seem to be gaining a little more momentum with each run. We need to see this consolidating in the next few runs. Could this be our get out of jail free card.

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ok then - "very mild" rather than incredibly so!

 

"Mean temperatures over the UK were well above the long-term average for all three months with a mean winter temperature of 5.2 oC which is 1.5 oC above the average and the equal-fifth highest in the series. There was a notable absence of frosts, and the lowest UK temperature of the winter, -7.7 oC at Altnaharra, Sutherland on 17th February was the highest such winter value for at least 50 years."

The storm track was generally a lot further south too, maxima were nothing to write home about and nice to see that Feb even over 50 years ago had higher temps.  So not remarkable at all, the storms strength, number and track were the story of 13/14.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Sorry but isn't that image from midnight on Thursday? I always get confused by 00.00 Friday I would have though that 00.01 was Friday but could be totally wrong. However if so then there is a cold front to clear south with cold air behind so those temperatures would drop as dawn approaches. I think..... :cc_confused:

Well, it could get complicated if you think like that. If it's 00:00 then it's the next day, keeps it simple, like the zulu time on the left.

Temps will drop behind it, yes. It does stay on the milder side for southern counties, still a far cry from recent temperatures for most of us.

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This is the strat warming for the GFS:

 

So the GFS 00hrs run to T168hrs:

 

post-1206-0-67220100-1420026751_thumb.pn

 

And the GFS 06hrs run to T162hrs:

 

post-1206-0-42248800-1420026794_thumb.pn

 

You can clearly see the stronger warming, because of the suggested coupling between strat and trop at the moment then IMO its this change that has caused the improved GFS run from 00hrs to 06hrs.

 

You don't always get this hand in hand type type situation with the strat but for those who have been reading the strat thread we are currently in this type of scenario.

Edited by nick sussex

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At the moment, the winter thus far has been a roaring success for the ECM extended ens mean /anomoly. the only cold period (now) was picked by them and the return to a flat pattern upcoming also. We now need for them to be wrong. Just as the strat warming in the Greenland/n Atlantic area appeared to come from nowhere, so we need this newfound amplification to our ne to become the way forward. Nothing is going to amplify to our west with that intense Canadian vortex but a scandi ridge can survive an upstream intense Canadian vortex.

 

Yes it can if the models say it can:

 

(1) However the GEFS do not support it, hence my conclusion that it will be flattened. Of course the GFS P is slightly different but it has to date not covered itself in glory with respect to height rises, so until it garners support I will be wary of it. 

 

(2) The PV is not static like last winter, it is mobile, so the signal is for the Canadian vortex to move east again around D9 (possibly a result of the strat warming). We need it to stay in situ a lot longer to support further WAA into the NE to sustain height rises.

 

(3) The Arctic High remains less than helpful re it's positioning.

 

These factors may change but at the moment I am not hopeful of height rises to the NE.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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Sorry but isn't that image from midnight on Thursday? I always get confused by 00.00 Friday I would have though that 00.01 was Friday but could be totally wrong. However if so then there is a cold front to clear south with cold air behind so those temperatures would drop as dawn approaches. I think..... :cc_confused:

00:00 Friday is Friday. The time starts on the hour. Eg 03:00 and 17:00 and 00:00 are all on the hour.

Football matches kick off at 15:00 not 15:01

Thursday finishes at 23:59:59, Friday starts at 00:00:00.

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There is no longer a SSW predicted. ECM has backed off. Gfs hasn't forecast one. Given the current state of the strat, I think any strong reversal high up will show quite quickly on the trop modelling. Seems the ECM op strat modelling can be as over amped as the trop!

No news about this from the experts over in the strat thread, so this comment is a bit confusing

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Morning all,

 

All models in agreement then,a period of zonality set to take over.I wouldn't be too bullish over how long it will last though and definatly wont be righting off the rest of this month that is just plain ridiculous,weve seen cold modelled at relatively short notice and out of the blue in the past and with the current pattern I see no reason why this isn't still the possible.One or two posters comparing similarities with this year and last,sorry but I just don't see them,the zonal flow last year was a lot stronger.This year IMBY weve seen five days of lying snow and recorded 10 air frosts since the start of December I think that by far exceeds last years winter total already.

Both GFS and GFS ops have HP build close to UK around 120h-168h.GEFS has some ENS support with 50% showing HP formation at 120 and 144h.incuding one or two with Scandi HP.

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How can you enjoy/marvel at grey cloud and rain!?

Easy.... I like stormy skyscapes, i like incoming depressions, but i like weather..... Of course im not so happy about rain when im working or when it washes out summer, but still

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No news about this from the experts over in the strat thread, so this comment is a bit confusing

 

With due respect, Bluearmy is one of those experts. It was nice for him to update us on a busy day.

 

CFS week 3-4 anomalies: post-14819-0-64985400-1420028457_thumb.g

Edited by i'm dreaming of...

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