Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[Captain Shortwave]

Not on Sunday...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10817.gif

A maximum of 4 widely across much of the UK...

Followed by another widespread frost overnight...

The cool weather for the weekend seems to be enhanced on each run - nothing 'cold' but certainly not mild!

Not much confidence on that though, the parallel gives a 7C higher temperature for my location on Sunday (GFS -1C, Parallel - 8C which is slightly above normal). The metoffice also has 8C for here.

The GFS looks like an outlier solution given most other models take the low much further north (GFS has this in the English channel, the parallel through England and the others take it through Scotland at a lot slower pace, hence why the GFS is by far the coldest solution.

Beyond this temperatures look to be around or slightly above normal (6-10C across the UK).

Edited December 31, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Heights much stronger over the Arctic and pushing up to the East of the UK. Pulling in a cool Pm flow into week 2. The run overall is cool Zonal, And the 8th Jan is about as far as i'm looking!

 

Edited December 31, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[karyo]

Still plenty going on up there karyo. I'm sure there will be some consequences.

I hope so bluearmy but it seems to me that something more significant is needed to knock the vortex out. If I was in eastern Europe or even as far southeast as Greece and Turkey I would be more optimistic as even a bit of amplification in the jet leads to potent cold blasts (like it happens currently and also another cold shot is forecasted there next week) but for us here things look very unfavourable with the Azores high glued south of the UK.

 

The only good thing I guess is that the warming this side is on our side of the hemisphere (Atlantic) which should be better than those Asian warmings that have just pushed all the energy to our side so far.

Edited December 31, 2014 by karyo

[shaky]

Not much confidence on that though, the parallel gives a 7C higher temperature for my location on Sunday (GFS -1C, Parallel - 8C which is slightly above normal)

The GFS looks like an outlier solution given most other models take the low much further north on Saturday night (GFS has this in the English channel, the parallel through England and the others take it through Scotland.

Beyond this temperatures look to be around or slightly above normal (6-10C across the UK).

to be fair the parallel run has beem all over the place with that shortwave aswell! ! The last few runs its been putting that shortwave anywhere across the uk!! Think its gona come down to nowcasting again!!! Ecm has it further south still so at the moment i will go with the southward movement of that shortwave although not discounting the gfs parallels forecast! !

[seaside 60]

Yes all common sense and very reasonable. However it does appear that another wave of warming will be needed (at least) for a Major SSW (though that could be a recurring statement come March). The current warming, like November's could pass the UK by. So we have to try to look for the end of Jan for potential changes, we can't just assume it will change, the Canadian PV is known as "the Winter killer" for a reason.

 

The MJO just does not want to progress into an amplified cycle. The CFS keeps us in the unsettled regime and then hints at another circle of death just before it gets interesting:

 

realtimemjo (1).png

 

So when it does this we are in something similar to the composite: JanENMJOphase6gt1500mb.gif

 

This ties in with the consistent output from CFS over the last two weeks for Jan: cfs-2-1-2015 (1).png

 

Feb is now looking less likely of anything blocked: cfsnh-2-2-2015.png

 

It is now March and April that a more blocked signal is detected in the CFS. So  of course nothing is set in stone, however the delay in the PV forming due to the disruption in November has meant poor timing with respect to its strengthening. Many thought that this reinvigorating PV would not be a problem as the various warmings' would be enough to kill the PV no matter how much it recovered. At the moment the PV -v- SSW is a long drawn out battle and whilst that takes place we have an awful setup for the Atlantic sector.

 

So yes the pattern may change later in January, but IMO it is more likely that it won't. No forecasts for Feb yet as a lot of water to go under the bridge before then.

ONly that Feb chart is actually March. ??

[Frosty.]

I think last winter was cool zonal overall, we don't seem to be making much progress apart from the occasional cold blip do we?

[IDO]

At least we have a possible SSW to look forward to, just to observe it will be fun, if we benefit from it tropospherically will be a bonus too

Not only that but the PV has been mobile all winter and there is no reason to doubt that will change. So if we do get favourable phasing and HLB'ing there is a chance the Main PV lobe will migrate away from our NW. That could lead to a turnaround in fortunes. At the moment the likelihood of this in the next 10-15 days is low but afterwards that may change.

[Newberryone]

I'm a little bit happier this morning.

 

We've been seeing a full on onslaught by the Atlantic for a few days now, but this morning high pressure is nudging a bit further north, so it's not going to be as much of a wind/rain fest as the earlier models.

 

Maybe a switch back towards settled weather is on the cards, especially the later part of the ECM.

 

 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 31ST 2014.

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure to the South or SE and SW of the UK driving mild and strong West or SW winds across the UK with rain at times especially towards the North and West. Later in the period as the pressure gradient strengthens across the UK gales and heavy rain can be expected for all areas with some colder and blustery westerly winds with showers wintry in the North becoming more dominant.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows Low pressure to the North and High to the South the most likely scenario at Day 10. This would indicate a strong Westerly flow with spells of rain mixed in with slightly colder and more showery conditions in between, the latter most likely over the North.

MY THOUGHTS To illustrate how set the models are in their output currently I could of cut and pasted a lot of the models text from yesterday into today's and it would not of looked out of place. The theme remains for a strong Westerly component to the weather in a persistently zonal period driven by a strong belt of High pressure from Southern Europe to the Azores and Low pressure to the North and NW of the UK. Differences day to day will depend on whether we are under warm sector conditions of cloudy and drizzly weather with temperatures near or above average and this looks more likely for longer periods across the South where not too much rain is likely. Alternatively there will be some chillier and clearer weather on occasion, these most likely at first almost anywhere and later more likely over the North where a little snow will continue to be a risk at times over the mountains. The long term pattern of the next two weeks depressingly looks unlikely to change at the end of the period either reading from today's output as GFS and other long term models support little if any significant change in synoptics at Day 14-15 with the only trend that I can see in being a deepening of the unsettledness across the UK with all areas coming under Westerly gales and colder showery periods in between, a point at which all areas could share in some wintry showers over the hills but this is a grain of sand in a desert of damp and mild Westerly winds when few of any of us living in lowland Britain will see any snowfall this side of mid January at least. Frosts will also be relatively scarce and slight with no chance of any as sharp as those of recently being repeated within the period and conversely night's could be unusually mild at times in the warm sector conditions across the South expected.

Be careful what you wish for CH, for as others have stated, heights to our south are unlikely to lead us to a potentially cold outlook anytime soon.

I would also beg to differ re the later stages of the Ecm. For eg, let's just say the chart showing for Sun 4th of Jan so happened to be the day 10 Ecm chart, it would be a reasonable enough assumption I think for one to perhaps draw a similar conclusion to that of yours re the potential for something more settled. However, the day 10 chart to me shows an all too powerful jet stream to allow anything other than perhaps a transient ridge to follow such a depression as shown.

[Frank Trough]

I think last winter was cool zonal overall, we don't seem to be making much progress apart from the occasional cold blip do we?

 

last winter was incredibly mild overall, wasn't it? I'm not sure "cool" would be the first word to spring into most people's minds when they recall winter 2013/14.

 

At least we've actually seen some frosty high pressure and lying snow in places this winter (so far). However, dress it up anyway you want but to me the output for first half of January is pretty much toilet at present.

[Bristawl Si]

last winter was incredibly mild overall, wasn't it? I'm not sure "cool" would be the first word to spring into most people's minds when they recall winter 2013/14.

 

At least we've actually seen some frosty high pressure and lying snow in places this winter (so far). However, dress it up anyway you want but to me the output for first half of January is pretty much toilet at present.

It was not "incredibly mild" -even down here we didnt have many double digit celsius temps.

Besides the incessant rain and storms it was the lack of below zero nights that kept the average temps above winter average.

[karyo]

last winter was incredibly mild overall, wasn't it? I'm not sure "cool" would be the first word to spring into most people's minds when they recall winter 2013/14.

 

At least we've actually seen some frosty high pressure and lying snow in places this winter (so far). However, dress it up anyway you want but to me the output for first half of January is pretty much toilet at present.

Last winter felt like a wet and windy spring to me. My location missed the stormiest of the weather so there was nothing notable and yes it was mild.

[seaside 60]

To clear a couple of matters up.

Could a mod/professional state the official meaning of zonal. My view has always been a constent train of mainly sw winds, mild and wet,

Also to the same qualified people, why do certain members keep alluring to the fact that winter is going the same as last winter, I dont see many records being broken from rainfall etc.

Do we have official records of this winter so far to last year so far, I do feel that would stop a lot of back stabbing on here.
What is being forecast is just guesswork, it hasn't happened yet....

[Panayiotis]

Hmmm its all looking a bit doom and gloom in here at the moment  and I can see why looking at some of the models, but maybe some optimism to boost the mood is needed and there is some potential this morning for something more colder (withing 192hrs) which some of you may have missed!

So after looking at all the 00z first, I noticed at 144hrs there is a more amplified push of heights towards Scandi from the low moving away from Greenland:

Now most of the models have a surface high near the Arctic and if we have enough heights pushed up north, it will allow this high to link up with the heights and get dragged south over Scandi, however the models develop a shortwave in that region and I think the handling of this shortwave will make the output a bit more volatile over the next few days, we need that shortwave to phase with the PV on the left hand side and leave a clear split between the PV over US and the one over Siberia ala ECM, NAVGEM and GFS 06z.

 

Now you may ask about the GFS P? And while I was writing this post the run was coming out and I could see it starting to trend towards my thoughts, its still not there but a step in the right direction and I will be following this trend very carefully over the next few days! 

So here is what the GFS P shows:

Shortwave phasing with the PV over Siberia:

Leaving a clear cut/split through the NH for the surface high created by the Alaskan ridge:

Heights then linking up with the surface high which develops over Scandi giving us high pressure over that area:

It all then gets skewered up later as the high sinks but for now this is trend is good enough when zonal was forecast, and like I said I will be keeping my eye on this!....

[Banbury]

Wow it looks like becoming very mild in the south, 12 to 13c 55f. The daffodils will be shooting up in January at this rate!

Where is that output Karl?

 

That is very misleading

[Frank Trough]

It was not "incredibly mild" -even down here we didnt have many double digit celsius temps.

Besides the incessant rain and storms it was the lack of below zero nights that kept the average temps above winter average.

 

ok then - "very mild" rather than incredibly so!

 

"Mean temperatures over the UK were well above the long-term average for all three months with a mean winter temperature of 5.2 ^oC which is 1.5 ^oC above the average and the equal-fifth highest in the series. There was a notable absence of frosts, and the lowest UK temperature of the winter, -7.7 ^oC at Altnaharra, Sutherland on 17th February was the highest such winter value for at least 50 years."

[reef]

It was not "incredibly mild" -even down here we didnt have many double digit celsius temps.

Besides the incessant rain and storms it was the lack of below zero nights that kept the average temps above winter average.

It was the 12th mildest winter in 355 years and the mean maximum temperature was 2.2C above the 1961-90 average.

 

Anyway back on topic, there are other threads elsewhere to discuss such things.

 

Cheers.

[blizzard81]

Hmmm its all looking a bit doom and gloom in here at the moment  and I can see why looking at some of the models, but maybe some optimism to boost the mood is needed and there is some potential this morning for something more colder (withing 192hrs) which some of you may have missed!

So after looking at all the 00z first, I noticed at 144hrs there is a more amplified push of heights towards Scandi from the low moving away from Greenland:

Now most of the models have a surface high near the Arctic and if we have enough heights pushed up north, it will allow this high to link up with the heights and get dragged south over Scandi, however the models develop a shortwave in that region and I think the handling of this shortwave will make the output a bit more volatile over the next few days, we need that shortwave to phase with the PV on the left hand side and leave a clear split between the PV over US and the one over Siberia ala ECM, NAVGEM and GFS 06z.

 

Now you may ask about the GFS P? And while I was writing this post the run was coming out and I could see it starting to trend towards my thoughts, its still not there but a step in the right direction and I will be following this trend very carefully over the next few days! 

So here is what the GFS P shows:

Shortwave phasing with the PV over Siberia:

Leaving a clear cut/split through the NH for the surface high created by the Alaskan ridge:

Heights then linking up with the surface high which develops over Scandi giving us high pressure over that area:

It all then gets skewered up later as the high sinks but for now this is trend is good enough when zonal was forecast, and like I said I will be keeping my eye on this!....

That is something that has taken my eye since the ECM first brought it into the modelling on yesterday's 12z and has picked up on it this morning. I suspect other members in here have spotted this but maybe the lack of posts about this developing situation is probably due to the strength of the pv totally over powering to the north of us. It is however the only straw to clutch this morning.

[nick sussex]

You know that miracle GEFS member I posted earlier well the GFS 06hrs has inched towards this!

 

It develops a similar shortwave at T162hrs off the main troughing we don't get this to eject favourably but its a start.

 

This may across as blatant straw clutching which I freely admit to so guilty as charged!

 

The bit more amplitude upstream and slowing down east of the pattern is likely in relation to the Greenland strat warming.

Edited December 31, 2014 by nick sussex

[carinthian]

Very much all doom and gloom on here this morning. But is it going to be a full on zonal pattern for the next 10 days or so? A ray of hope on the latest GEFS Ensemble run.hints at Scandinavian block at 144hours ! Anyway back in blighty, has any one not seen snow lying or falling for the whole year?. I suspect some in the south may well have to record that horrible record.

C

Edited December 31, 2014 by carinthian

[Banbury]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7817.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12617.gif

 

Far from mild

[snow freak]

It was not "incredibly mild" -even down here we didnt have many double digit celsius temps.

Besides the incessant rain and storms it was the lack of below zero nights that kept the average temps above winter average.

I think I must have seen only 1 frost last year and no snow whatsoever, not even sleet so yes it would go down in my books as a mild winter last year for sure.

[bobbydog]

last winter is sooo last year.....

anyway. im liking the evolution of the parallel, it leaves us with a large, cold HP over siberia. something which has been lacking so far. also the huge greenland vortex has diminished. this could allow any mid atlantic ridging to amplify, which if it pushed into scandi, could link up with the easterly flow from the siberian HP. the trough to the north would drop into eastern europe and the netweather server would crash....

[winterof79]

GFS P has an interesting feature running in on the jet.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014123106/gfs-8-54.png?6

Keeping my eye on that with cold air already in place not mild

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014123106/gfs-8-90.png?6

 

Any more movement south and there could be surprises but not modelled by others.

For all out there thinking its going to be uber mild run this

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=8

 GFS says NO

[blizzard81]

That high up towards Svalbard in the 6 day range seems to be getting stronger with each run. Would love to hear Steve Murrs thoughts on this.

[carinthian]

Very much all doom and gloom on here this morning. But is it going to be a full on zonal pattern for the next 10 days or so? A ray of hope on the latest GEFS Ensemble run.hints at Scandinavian block at 144hours ! Anyway back in blighty, has any one not seen snow lying or falling for the whole year?. I suspect some in the south may well have to record that horrible record.

C

Well if this latest GEFS Ensembly run verifies, we in this part of Austria and SE Europe will be in Super Freeze. Even a bit too cold for me !

C