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Model Output Discussion; into 2015


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Completely in the wrong place for us though surely. How does the PV drain away into Siberia with a big block there?

Position of the block ATM is of no significance, especially at that range. The fact is the block is showing, the position will change over time so don't get hung up on location ATM

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12z clusters are offering glimpses of a different story after mid-month with markedly more meridional pattern(s), but of course it's just not worth detailing all that stuff showing out post-15 Jan unt

Some very poor quality posts have been creeping into the discussion which really don't add anything to the thread apart from raising the ire of many who view this thread....Even a simpleton (in meteor

Nice tease from the ECM, no surprise looking at the strat charts, shame it can't happen though because apparently cold is not possible before Mid Jan!?!   Rule nothing out folks, as I posted yeste

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Completely in the wrong place for us though surely. How does the PV drain away into Siberia with a big block their?

Because the block should migrate and strength over greenland pushing the much weakened PV away as it turns. At least according to likely Strat predictions.

I've put on the diagram again the likely movement and discount on the PV (whats left of it) and energy.

Just my opinion, but personally the EC is a massive step forward for me.

post-6326-0-59680900-1419966891_thumb.gi

Edited by Iceberg
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Because the block should migrate and strength over greenland pushing the much weakened PV away as it turns. At least according to likely Strat predictions.

I've put on the diagram again the likely movement and discount on the PV (whats left of it) and energy.

Just my opinion, but personally the EC is a massive step forward for me.

Of course it could be gone by tomorrows runs of course. Needs consistency, given the ECMs habit of trying to form blocking solutions in the week 2 range, then we can only treat the solution with the utmost scepticism.

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Well let me just say I much prefer this evenings Ecm run than this morning's, this run ends well with 522 dam thicknesses covering some parts of the UK. I will love it if we can achieve 510 dam during Jan and Feb as it's the holy grail by UK standards and guaranteed powdery snow and severe frosts. Yummy

post-4783-0-04643900-1419967165_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-06998300-1419967190_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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I know i'm a novice but this chart doesn't scream potential to me in fact it looks pretty flat and zonal. What minimal height rises there are are in a useless position for us and they are simply pushing more vortex to our side of the planet. Hope im wrong though as i need a straw to clutch. Maybe chiono or some other poster can tell me im wrong about this.

It definitely has potential - but it is a chart 10 days away with a lot of indecision and differences in the models in between. So will leave it there. Important to see how the lower strat splits in the short term (instant trop results) and whether an upper based warming and disintergration of the upper vortex can occur later. It is one of those times that no'one exactly knows how the vortex is going to behave. We cannot rule out full destruction and connot rule out quick reformation. The pre winter odds were for the destruction but the vortex is behaving like an elastic that does not want to snap no matter how far it is pulled apart!

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Big lower strat split on the latest ECM I bet! No trop jet stream breaks through that type of split - it hits the proverbial brick wall. If the split is only partial like the GFS, then the trop jet stream flow continues across the Atlantic. Which model is right?

I think a combo of the gfsp and ECM op is where we will see this headed ed. I think ECM has over egged it a bit and gfs underdone it. Might take a second bite to reverse high up completely.

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I'm very much encouraged by the ECMWF

Day 3

post-19153-0-12719800-1419967192_thumb.j

Day 10

post-19153-0-81506800-1419967163_thumb.j

We might be on the verge of something :w00t: models are looking more amplified good trend. It is quite a sudden change but an SSW would cause such versatility. Perhaps this is starting to be factored.

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Given that the GFS(P) indicates some possible PM air towards the end of its run and that this could result in some snow, particularly at height, can you explain to me how there is "no hint of cold"? Many thanks for your help.

Yes easy, because the pm shots are not particularly cold, may push temps a bit below average, but not 'cold' in most peoples books

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Rather than go through each output it's easier to put them into clusters for cold potential:

 

So GFS, GFS P, JMA, GEM, NAVGEM basically garbage!

 

I nearly forgot the UKMO, that's also dire at T144hrs!

 

Output like the above doesn't deserve any fancy terms, if they're going to dish out dire outputs they get what they deserve!

 

The ECM, in any other winter this would be met with a shrug of the shoulders however given the rest of the outputs it scrapes into the modicum of interest category.

 

Overall a depressing evening for coldies bar the SS ECM which is now picking up Netweather survivors although worries that it may capsize at anytime given its now overloaded!

 

The reverse zonal flow towards the polar region offers a glimmer of hope and the ECM deals with the PV differently but we're going to need some Hollywood scriptwriters to plot a route to cold within T240hrs.

 

More likely any cold will need the next strat warming but at least the ECM delivers a little interest this evening which to be frank wouldn't be difficult given the rest of the outputs.

Edited by nick sussex
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I think a combo of the gfsp and ECM op is where we will see this headed ed. I think ECM has over egged it a bit and gfs underdone it. Might take a second bite to reverse high up completely.

It's really difficult to get to grips with because we are seeing simultaneous upwell and downwell wave 2 events forecasted.

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Another week of zonal and average/mild weather is certain. Thereafter, In my opinion the stratospheric warming will start to take effect and we will be looking at much more interesting charts as we move into the second week of January. The ECM is leading the way with the wave 1 and wave 2 activity in the stratosphere. I expect the GFS FI to start looking interesting in the coming days with splitting of the polar vortex, this may take a few days longer to show than the ECM. Although, the GFS P should be a lot better in this regard. Expect the ECM to lead the way in the NH pattern change, some more interesting charts should start to show in the day 8-10 range as we move through the week.

 

post-19153-0-81506800-1419967163.jpg

post-17488-0-58392800-1419968354_thumb.p

Edited by Barry95
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Not sure what time they come out but could anyone post the ECM postage stamps for Thursday into the Storm discussion thread please? I'd like to see if any of the members develop the depression more than the op. Thanks, link to thread below. 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82129-new-years-day-possible-storm/page-3#entry3103224

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How is the gfs run garbage Nick, its cold and stormy through low res.

I also wonder if one GFS ensemble is scenting a change? The blue one looks good... :)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

And, whilst looking into deep FI for inspiration, the 10 day ECM chart is not without interest - that's a keen northwesterly... (Unlikely to verify but hey!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

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How is the gfs run garbage Nick, its cold and stormy through low res.

Sorry Frosty you have to factor in the GFS bias of overdoing southwards extent of the cold at longer timeframes.

 

If you see the PV and low heights stuck to the north then any PM incursions will get watered down. The only time you have a better chance of the cold verifying is with proper blocking.

 

I'm afraid Frosty the output bar the ECM is loathsome and would get vertigo in a sewer. I wish I could be more optimistic but best to lower expectations for the next ten days at least, the next strat warming may well be the one that can help with some lasting cold.

 

The ECM at least has a little potential so its not all bad this evening!

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It's really difficult to get to grips with because we are seeing simultaneous upwell and downwell wave 2 events forecasted.

The day 7/10 ECM trop op is a reasonable take for the 50hpa level. Tbh, the vortex placement and upper ridges have followed the mid strat quite closely through that run.

if it's difficult for you to get a handle on then gawd help the rest of us. Hopefully Berlin will update tomorrow because we could do with seeing the wave forecasts.

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Sorry Frosty you have to factor in the GFS bias of overdoing southwards extent of the cold at longer timeframes.

If you see the PV and low heights stuck to the north then any PM incursions will get watered down. The only time you have a better chance of the cold verifying is with proper blocking.

I'm afraid Frosty the output bar the ECM is loathsome and would get vertigo in a sewer. I wish I could be more optimistic but best to lower expectations for the next ten days at least, the next strat warming may well be the one that can help with some lasting cold.

The ECM at least has a little potential so its not all bad this evening!

Indeed Nick, it's rather better for coldies than the 00z which is good news to end the day with. I'm just looking for crumbs of comfort. :-) Edited by Frosty.
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The day 7/10 ECM trop op is a reasonable take for the 50hpa level. Tbh, the vortex placement and upper ridges have followed the mid strat quite closely through that run.

if it's difficult for you to get a handle on then gawd help the rest of us. Hopefully Berlin will update tomorrow because we could do with seeing the wave forecasts.

Everything has updated for me except the bottom 5 graph charts.

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Rather than go through each output it's easier to put them into clusters for cold potential:

 

So GFS, GFS P, JMA, GEM, NAVGEM basically garbage!

 

I nearly forgot the UKMO, that's also dire at T144hrs!

 

Output like the above doesn't deserve any fancy terms, if they're going to dish out dire outputs they get what they deserve!

 

The ECM, in any other winter this would be met with a shrug of the shoulders however given the rest of the outputs it scrapes into the modicum of interest category.

 

Overall a depressing evening for coldies bar the SS ECM which is now picking up Netweather survivors although worries that it may capsize at anytime given its now overloaded!

 

The reverse zonal flow towards the polar region offers a glimmer of hope and the ECM deals with the PV differently but we're going to need some Hollywood scriptwriters to plot a route to cold within T240hrs.

 

More likely any cold will need the next strat warming but at least the ECM delivers a little interest this evening which to be frank wouldn't be difficult given the rest of the outputs.

Which has been the most accurate model thus far this winter?

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Indeed Nick, it's rather better for coldies than the 00z which is good news to end the day with. I'm just looking for crumbs of comfort. :-)

Yes I agree on both fronts! As you've seen from Chiono and BA's post theres some confusion re the strat, maybe something might just pop up.  But we still have two months of winter and I've been on here long enough to never rule anything out. Theres a few positives which are currently being outweighed by that angry PV, hopefully we see some changes sooner rather than later.

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Yes easy, because the pm shots are not particularly cold, may push temps a bit below average, but not 'cold' in most peoples books

:smiliz23: Sorry but thats not easy. If the temperature, especially at this time of year, is below average then it would be classed as cold. If snow is a possibility then where it falls would be classed as cold. Below average, I am sure, would be refered to by the Met office, as "cold for the time of year" You may be confusing cold with very cold or even extremley cold. To say there is "no hint of cold" when temperatures are below average in January is clearly misleading.

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Another week of zonal and average/mild weather is certain. Thereafter, In my opinion the stratospheric warming will start to take effect and we will be looking at much more interesting charts as we move into the second week of January. The ECM is leading the way with the wave 1 and wave 2 activity in the stratosphere. I expect the GFS FI to start looking interesting in the coming days with splitting of the polar vortex, this may take a few days longer to show than the ECM. Although, the GFS P should be a lot better in this regard. Expect the ECM to lead the way in the NH pattern change, some more interesting charts should start to show in the day 8-10 range as we move through the week.

 

post-19153-0-81506800-1419967163.jpg

attachicon.gifviewimage.pbx.png

This is by far the best run from a top model for days.

But early days but I have my fingers crossed for the cold heart winter.

Even a five country wide cold spell with snowfall I think a lot would be happy.

We shall see later in noaa discussion.

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Everything has updated for me except the bottom 5 graph charts.

 

you might think it has ed but the charts are all those for the previous days run. they should go out to the 8th jan but they only go to the 7th. they are the identical charts from the day before ! bet you thought they were consistent!

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you might think it has ed but the charts are all those for the previous days run. they should go out to the 8th jan but they only go to the 7th. they are the identical charts from the day before ! bet you thought they were consistent!

That's the only consistency we've seen Ta

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