Jump to content

Model Output Discussion; into 2015


Recommended Posts

I think the ECM 10 day chart is roughly following expectations from early strat warming feedback weakening and displacing the Canadian PV thus pushing a lobe further SW and amplifying the downstream pattern? (our upstream)

That is the sort of pattern I am looking for in FI so nice to see it modelled at least even though it is currently the weakest of weak signals. (and possibly too quick)

 

ECH1-240.GIF?29-0

It looks like any response will be quick so we should hope to see the ensembles starting to develop some colder solutions past day ten.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

12z clusters are offering glimpses of a different story after mid-month with markedly more meridional pattern(s), but of course it's just not worth detailing all that stuff showing out post-15 Jan unt

Some very poor quality posts have been creeping into the discussion which really don't add anything to the thread apart from raising the ire of many who view this thread....Even a simpleton (in meteor

Nice tease from the ECM, no surprise looking at the strat charts, shame it can't happen though because apparently cold is not possible before Mid Jan!?!   Rule nothing out folks, as I posted yeste

Posted Images

I think the ECM 10 day chart is roughly following expectations from early strat warming feedback weakening and displacing the Canadian PV thus pushing a lobe further SW and amplifying the downstream pattern? (our upstream)

That is the sort of pattern I am looking for in FI so nice to see it modelled at least even though it is currently the weakest of weak signals.

 

ECH1-240.GIF?29-0

 

Yes if that is an immediate strat to trop response then looking at the split in the 850's vortex:

 

post-14819-0-80430700-1419883558_thumb.p

 

Looks like the US would indeed go into the freezer. There are also some very cold uppers there that could be dragged our way. That looks a very favourable chart if it verified.

 

Lots of bridges to cross before then though, starting with the extended ECM ensembles tonight and hopefully the Control follows the op so we can see what follows.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Tonight's Ecm 12z is not what I would call a mild run, indeed it's dominated by cool / cold zonality and yet again T+240 is loaded with promise of what the following frames would deliver..a screaming Northerly once that trough tracks further east.

post-4783-0-86245100-1419884376_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-63698700-1419884416_thumb.pn

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

When is this never-ending nonsense about not seeing cold for the entirety of Winter ever going to end? Every year it's the same, even through 2012-13. The models show raging westerlies, and yet we must assume that's what we will see for the rest of the season? It's either a perpetual hype of reverse psychology or people really do not have an actual clue what they are talking about. Just observe what the models are CURRENTLY showing, at the moment, raging westerlies. Does that mean that particular pattern will last for weeks on end? No! 

it is the model output discussion after all, and if thats whats in the current output then i guess people will discuss it.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Extended ECM ens show nothing but continuing strong zonality apart from a brief toppler of sorts generated from the ridge shown on the op.

The control is similar to the op and develops a decent toppler but that's all it is before the deep system off Canada flattens it and restores the strong westerly flow.

Perhaps there are some clusters showing different by the end of week 2 but that's not evident on the mean/anomolys

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

The current output goes out to 16 days, which takes us out to the middle of January. So how, based on current model output can you write the entire winter off for cold? If we were in a cold spell with no end in sight, I assume you would be thinking it's going to last all winter? No, you'd be going on about how it's going to break down and where going to return to Zonal weather.

I haven't written off winter tho

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM ens pretty much the same as this morning with west or south westerly (one exception is the 2nd when we see a short live north westerly) winds pretty much dominating from Wednesday through to day 10

 

EDU1-48.GIF?29-0EDU1-96.GIF?29-0EDU1-144.GIF?29-0EDU1-192.GIF?29-0EDU1-240.GIF?29-0

 

Pretty much inline with the 00z run with any snow restricted to high ground in Scotland and possibly northern England at times

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Extended ECM ens show nothing but continuing strong zonality apart from a brief toppler of sorts generated from the ridge shown on the op.

The control is similar to the op and develops a decent toppler but that's all it is before the deep system off Canada flattens it and restores the strong westerly flow.

Perhaps there are some clusters showing different by the end of week 2 but that's not evident on the mean/anomolys

 

 

Thanks Blue.

Personally I'm not too concerned about the lower res ensembles not picking it up as yet and to me it good news that the control supports the Op.

It would be nice if those few ensemble members that go with a stronger ridge had one or two that showed something more significant than a toppler though but that said we may be seeing a little less energy coming across the Atlantic than currently predicted in that time frame if we can get a fast trop response.

 

All ifs and buts at this stage. Time will tell.

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks Blue.

Personally I'm not too concerned about the lower res ensembles not picking it up as yet and to me it good news that the control supports the Op.

It would be nice if those few ensemble members that go with a stronger ridge had one or two that showed something more significant than a toppler though but that said we may be seeing a little less energy coming across the Atlantic than currently predicted in that time frame if we can get a fast trop response.

 

All ifs and buts at this stage. Time will tell.

Thing is mucka, with 51 ens members going all the way to the top of the strat with their vertical res, you would think that at least 5 would find a response. Looking at de bilt, that's not the case.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Thing is mucka, with 51 ens members going all the way to the top of the strat with their vertical res, you would think that at least 5 would find a response. Looking at de bilt, that's not the case.

 

Yeah you would. I guess I will be watching in hope more than expectation for something to show up over the next few days but I don't think it is a forlorn hope as yet.

Edited by Mucka
Link to post
Share on other sites

Thing is mucka, with 51 ens members going all the way to the top of the strat with their vertical res, you would think that at least 5 would find a response. Looking at de bilt, that's not the case.

Matt Hugo on Twitter reckons that ECM has virtually annihilated the vortex at 10hpa by 8th Jan, so I'm guessing that we will soon start to see any trop response in the outputs?

Edited by Long haul to mild
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah you would. I guess I will be watching in hope more than expectation for something to show up over the next few days but I don't think it is a forlorn hope as yet.

I wouldn't be overly concerned as yet mucka. If nothing on the horizon come the end of the week then nick will have to break out the Prozac.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Matt Hugo on Twitter reckons that ECM has virtually annihilated the vortex at 10hpa by 8th Jan, so I'm guessing that we will soon start to see any trop response in the outputs?

That's true but then perhaps the ECM op strat modelling isn't going to verify at day 10 ??

fwiw, I think it won't be too far off.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

That's true but then perhaps the ECM op strat modelling isn't going to verify at day 10 ??

fwiw, I think it won't be too far off.

There always seems to be more confidence in Strat forecasts but I guess they are just as prone to not panning out as trop modelling.

Hope it does happen; although we know a SSW is not an all-encompassing guarantor of cold, it would be a handy card to fall in place at a time when the models are offering so little in the way of succour.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Quite warm weather in the coming days.
+5 in 850hpa!
and Ιt is amazing how deep in Africa descends 0 850hpa

 

 

Hi Civil,

 

The 850's are approx 1.5km up - so it's not a good way to see how warm/cold it will be at the surface.

 

It's actually going to be freezing for the majority. A bit like today.

 

ukmintemp.png

 

So + 850's do not indicate warm weather at surface level.

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, high confidence in the next 2+ weeks there MS..,,

:-/

I think my comment was fair based on the current model output showing a positive AO and a very positive NAO for the next couple of weeks which takes us to mid January. Clearly tonight ECM op shows the possibility of something sooner, however, it has shown a tendency to over amplify the flow, so until it shows consistency and has support it is not to be taken seriously.

The PV is clearly under stress and by around the 7th of January we could see things move quickly with a decent HLB block in place by the 15th.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...