Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion; into 2015


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

12z clusters are offering glimpses of a different story after mid-month with markedly more meridional pattern(s), but of course it's just not worth detailing all that stuff showing out post-15 Jan unt

Some very poor quality posts have been creeping into the discussion which really don't add anything to the thread apart from raising the ire of many who view this thread....Even a simpleton (in meteor

Nice tease from the ECM, no surprise looking at the strat charts, shame it can't happen though because apparently cold is not possible before Mid Jan!?!   Rule nothing out folks, as I posted yeste

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

    *HIGH POTENTIAL*

     

    Lets hope it manifests past day 6-

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014122712/UN144-21.GIF?27-17

    I'm seeing it. GFS old school is following along a similar path but with a stronger WAA up into Pole Pacific side. This weeks models will be very intriguing

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Anyone for another marginal snow event on the 5th?  :rofl: 

    06z 

    gfs-0-228.png?6

     

    12z 

    gfs-0-222.png?12

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

    Maybe I'm mad, but the GFS 12z op looks pretty damn good to me. Aside from what's going on in our part of the world, the NH profile does some nice things for long term cold prospects. Some good ridging in Alaska and the erosion of the PV are both rather important indeed. Plus in the short term and for the next week there's some substantial stratospheric warming going on

    gfsnh-0-240.png?12?12

    gfsnh-0-384.png?12

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Anyone for another marginal snow event on the 5th?  :rofl: 

    06z 

    gfs-0-228.png?6

     

    12z 

    gfs-0-222.png?12

     

    Yesterdays was forecast from 200+ hours out as well. Don't think I can deal with the stress this time though   :rolleyes:

    Edited by PerfectStorm
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO is the best of the 12z's so far for cold potential

     

    UN120-21.GIF?27-17  UN144-21.GIF?27-17

    UW120-7.GIF?27-17UW144-7.GIF?27-17

     

    Over to ECM now and seeing what it comes up with

     

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Anything other than drizzle
  • Location: Ventnor, Isle of Wight

    There appears to be a lot of forecasting for FI charts which is fine but don't take it literally just call it as you see it don't bank on it......Up to a reasonable time frame 144hh it appears to be looking as we were this morning with HP to the south east keeping things cool and frosty up to that point.

     

    Although not guaranteed there after I think the atlantic will push through and sink the high to the south east allowing the jet to slowly sink south. I think it will remain cool and probably just below average for the first half January with a potential for wintry precipitation at times to the north west, west (west to higherground) and higher parts of wales . I don't foresee a mild atlantic bombardment........this isn't taken from the 12z this is an observation of the NH pattern.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Hope you all had a good Christmas.

     

    It looks like I will have to give up any idea of the high sticking around longer and the pattern being more amplified behind as the models are solidly against this idea but I'm still surprised just how fast and flat the jet is being forecast to be as we head into January.

     

    gfsnh-5-120.png?12

     

    I fully expected the jet to fire up in response to the PV reorganising to our NW but I thought it would be more southerly and meet a little more resistance.

    I'm reluctant to to keep saying this solution looks to progressive in the face of overwhelming model resistance to such an idea so I will just say my hope rather than expectation is that we will see the jet dig further South and MLB reforming though the first week of January.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

    Again in FI, but this is a nice chart on the GFS(P). Both the op and the parallel are showing nice troughing digging down into Europe, however the parallel has a more favourably positioned high extending from Russia

    gfs-0-360.png?12

    gfsnh-0-360.png?12

    EDIT: also I never say stuff like this on here, but unless people have charts to go with their points, can we please leave out the emotionally charged posts that are made. There is no room here for gut feelings and grumblings - they go elsewhere! This is a chart based thread with lots of pretty colours on synoptic charts that I am still learning how to understand :D

    Edited by Joe Levy
    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro

    One thing deep in to FI we see the lows dive deep into Southern Europe and hights building to the n/e.....

    Maybe a trend but all good we are not seeing a euro high,

    post-19059-0-95836500-1419699755_thumb.j

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    funny how we can all view the same op run but see differing things... from potential, through to gloom... the gfs 12z looks to me like it on the cold side of  average  going into january. but neither is there any real hope currently of anything particually cold nor mild.

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    funny how we can all view the same op run but see differing things... from potential, through to gloom... the gfs 12z looks to me like it on the cold side of  average  going into january. but neither is there any real hope currently of anything particually cold nor mild.

    Yes Rob, lots of wintry potential, just as there was on the 6z and 00z..Cold zonal, some cold and settled and in between all that, some milder, wet and windy spells..something for everyone dare I say?

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

    Its worth pointing out to you that a straight Northerly isn't that good for parts of the South, unless you are on a mountain of very favoured coasts, I should also point out to you that January , February and March are often better months for the UK as a whole .

    Edited by Osbourne One-Nil
    Drop the sarcasm please!
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    The GFSP seems very odd looking in FI? I don't think I've ever seen it go like that before?

     

    Do you think we're still trying to sort a pattern change out, I just can't understand the pattern it's showing atm...makes no odds?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    I thought 144 hrs on the UKMO had some potential for a change to colder weather again so i'm glad to see the ECM has the same idea. There are signs atm in this time frame that give some hope in further runs for coldies.

     

     

    ECH1-144.GIF?27-0

    Edited by The Eagle
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)

    I thought 144 hrs on the UKMO had some potential for a change to colder weather again so i'm glad to see the ECM has the same idea. There are signs atm in this time frame that give some hope in further runs for coldies.

     

     

    ECH1-144.GIF?27-0

     

    -6 uppers on a strong northwesterly, certainly not bad at all!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...