Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[Stuie]

A little nervous posting as atmosphere seems frosty but looking at the ECM 850`s for the end of next week (prob FI) does to me show colder air is getting in to Europe. A weird? upper 850 spreading a fair bit into Europe on the 2nd is then easily quashed on the 3rd. Don`t see any point going any further than that.

[Smiler1709]

In past extremely cold winters we normally get a little teaser in December, so I think we have had a few teasers, fingers crossed this winter follows the trend.

Give it a couple of days and things will be looking good again, I have no evidence for this just a hunch. One things for sure winter 2014/2015 has been so much better than 2013/2014.

[snow mad]

I hate using the word cool to describe polar maritime incursions with strong winds, it would be cold!! Frequent incursions of 528 dam thicknesses is not standard winter fayre, it translates to cold and wintry at times, I don't agree with gibby.

the Beeb just forecast double figures for next week at times so I would say it's looking pretty ordinary and there is nothing in the models to suggest otherwise. Wish there was but this is not looking good

[Cheese Rice]

There's constant shots of PM air of -5/-7 uppers.

If you are confused as to what setups bring snowfall then look at the PPN type charts as indication, as it appears some of you really don't have a clue.

There's a general theme in this thread if it's not a two week spell of sub zero temperatures then it's discounted.

I'm not sure why some of you expect a long cold spell in a country dominated by Atlantic influences.

The GFS P 12z is a prime example of what to expect over the next 10-14 days, wintry somes up the pattern perfecly.

[Long haul to mild]

20th January 1991 : not looking great is it?

 

 

 

Roll forward two and a half weeks to 7th February 1991 - a bit better!!

 

 

My point? Not saying it will happen this year but puts into perspective how things can turn around fairly quickly in the world of weather........

[MR EXTREMES]

I agree the models are dire tonight, unless we get a decent block in place weather that be in the atlantic/greenland/scandinavia we will ALMOST never see any good prolonged/snowy weather.

 

When I look at the charts on wetterzentralle you are hard pressed to see any high pressure cells anywhere on our side of the hemisphere....

To be fair frosty gibby is correct in his scrutiny of the models and to be fair cold will feature further north this possibly also receding in future runs !.

Heights to our sw moving into the uk will only aid in a block but not were coldies want it to be.

Although frost a feature.

And the pros did there winter post saying the heart of winter could be cold.

So to be fair I'd thought heart of winter would be jan feb.

[Gibby]

I hate using the word cool to describe polar maritime incursions with strong winds, it would be cold!! Frequent incursions of 528 dam thicknesses is not standard winter fayre, it translates to cold and wintry at times, I don't agree with gibby.

The definition is all about perception and this is the reason I use the word 'cool'. If the weather is cold i.e. many degrees below average then I'll say 'cold.' If temperatures are just marginally below or at normal in a breezy polar maritime flow I use the word 'cool'. With regard to the cold and wintry remark in your above post you don't mention the models from which this is shown giving the 'perception' that all output is showing it. It is this that confuses 'newbies' and while I admire your enthusiasm for cold it does not reflect cross model support on tonight's output which is why I've defended my use of the term 'cool'.

[KyleHenry]

Forget about what is happening at 10 days plus for just a moment.

Can we all agree that all models at 0 hours are now showing a WAA presently advancing poleward on the Pacific side of Northern Hemisphere.

And that we are currently mid way through a 25C mountain torque event at 1 hPa level.

This is not a distant model prediction but real time Synoptics the here and now so to speak. Which I prefer more than anything hard data facts.

The ECM has an Arctic HP showing at only 120 z, the UKMO at 144 hours. GFS old school the same with a little more delay 162z.

In my book an Arctic HP is a rare bird to see especially at the turn of a new year.

So from what we see in the here and now who wouldn't be happy.

Would you rather see a -80 C Super PV that will not breakdown and huge rainfall with mild temps. I'd think no.

[Freezing-Point]

Evening all.   Its certainly been a disappointing December for cold, after so many forecasts predicted it.  I really think this has caused frustrations and perhaps many of the emotional comments.  Lets not forget the greatest winter for snow did not start until January 21st, until then there had been few cold shots and it was barmy mild in the preceding week.   (I don't need to mention the year).  If the models had been available then I am absolutely certainly they would not have predicted 6 weeks of blizzards.

 

It seems we are going back to a zonal pattern for the time being.  Perfectly normal winter conditions.  There is still time for a change.  Lets hope the SSW brings it, as it did in 2010.

Edited December 28, 2014 by Freezing-Point

[johnholmes]

the Beeb just forecast double figures for next week at times 

The GFS P 12z is a prime example of what to expect over the next 10-14 days, wintry somes up the pattern perfecly. 

 

Two rather opposite posts so no doubt new folk are confused.

When this happens simply take a look yourself at the free Net Wx output it gets direct from the GFS both posters are talking about, link below, click on the lhs and scroll down to max/min T, then call up each day for the 12 or 15Z temperature values for that day.

Pick the one nearest you and see how it compares to the Met O averages for January for the nearest station to yourself.

very easy to do give it a try and you can then work out what the model is saying for your area as you see it not relying on someone else.

Not a dig at the two posters I quoted, simply TRYING to make model watching a bit easier for new folk.

link on way

 http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfs;sess=582d16d349061a2ad1d9ee1c3ae40516

Edited December 28, 2014 by johnholmes

[Long haul to mild]

Forget about what is happening at 10 days plus for just a moment.

Can we all agree that all models at 0 hours are now showing a WAA presently advancing poleward on the Pacific side of Northern Hemisphere.

And that we are currently mid way through a 25C mountain torque event at 1 hPa level.

This is not a distant model prediction but real time Synoptics the here and now so to speak. Which I prefer more than anything hard data facts.

The ECM has an Arctic HP showing at only 120 z, the UKMO at 144 hours. GFS old school the same with a little more delay 162z.

In my book an Arctic HP is a rare bird to see especially at the turn of a new year.

So from what we see in the here and now who wouldn't be happy.

Would you rather see a -80 C Super PV that will not breakdown and huge rainfall with mild temps. I'd think no.

A great post that will sadly be lost on the hand-wringers who have declared January a bust for cold and are busy writing February's epitaph too....

A much better setup than last winter with its supercharged PV. Potential down the line that was simply not there in 13/14.

[dragan]

Essentially the odds for a HLB cold setup in January are very very slim indeed. I like cold and snow, but will not fantasise about what 'could' happen as it only gets hopes up. The outlook is very average for January, wet and cool from the west. I wouldnt be surprised if we get a continental feed sometime late February or March.

[legritter]

Some good discussions tonight on our first class forum .All brought about by our computer models . i,v certainly learnt over the last few years watching the models that a complete turnaround can occur overnight or even during the day .personally i take the next 6 days charts and Data, Digest it accept it and then just wait ,so looking at a week away things will change in locations of high pressure areas, of low pressure whether or not a ssw will show its head and many other Meteorological big players .it could very well be that Tomorrow when we all wake up click on the computer the charts past five days would have changed [for good or bad ] depending on your preferences and your location in the uk .so after digesting all of todays data i can only come to the same conclusion as the pros at exeter who have far more data and charts at their disposal .but only a small miss calculation can bring us quite a big difference in the weather .our recent low must be a perfect example ,A gfs low centre moving to our n west then deepening and heading south east down north sea ,in the end it brought to some [lucky ones ]snow and now deep cold although short lived beets last years zilsh .I have not mentioned other models but just reminding some that things are not set in stone for the rest of winter ,So come on non believers plenty of winter left ,enjoy Stellas all round ,cheers   

[dragan]

If the high sets up around southern Europe and sends a plume from Africa, temps could go through the roof. Unlikely as it is, it could happen.

[Iceberg]

Some truly awful posting this evening.

Ens beyond t144 will be nearly useless under a strong differentiated pm tm air change. Likewise large variability in pressure.

What ec 12z shows is a much less intense drive train of depressions in the Atlantic.

It still shows the amplification etc

I think folks still need a bit of patience and to just look at the bigger pictures sometimes.

[Mr Frost]

Essentially the odds for a HLB cold setup in January are very very slim indeed. I like cold and snow, but will not fantasise about what 'could' happen as it only gets hopes up. The outlook is very average for January, wet and cool from the west. I wouldnt be surprised if we get a continental feed sometime late February or March.

Surely you are on the wind up mate with this post?

So you are writing off January and you have also teleported into the future to tell me we might get a continental breeze sometime in late Feb or March.

I am actually losing the will to live after reading some of the posts in this thread within the past couple of hours.

[phil nw.]

Please folks don't let frustrations spoil the thread by posting impolite comments against other members views.

 

Ok the outlook is nothing special with a changeable westerly pattern setting up soon with some mild and some colder days.

Wet and windy at times with any snow restricted mainly to Northern elevations so fairly typical for early January.

Nothing we can do about it but let's keep open minds for future developments.

The warmings continue high up and with the Alaskan ridge coming and going the vortex continues to remain vulnerable to further weakening and fragmentation.

There is a lot of cold lurking just to our north in the next week to 10 days and it only needs a little more amplification of the jet to bring it further south.

We have seen how the operational runs have changed so much recently and this is because of an unstable vortex so likely more changes afoot i would think.

In the meantime let us keep this thread friendly and enjoyable to use,after all we all have a common interest that's why we are here.

[Long haul to mild]

Essentially the odds for a HLB cold setup in January are very very slim indeed. I like cold and snow, but will not fantasise about what 'could' happen as it only gets hopes up. The outlook is very average for January, wet and cool from the west. I wouldnt be surprised if we get a continental feed sometime late February or March.

All of January? 34 days ahead? And a continental feed in Feb/Mar would be fine; had lots of good snow events that time of year in the past. Hope you're right about that!

If the high sets up around southern Europe and sends a plume from Africa, temps could go through the roof. Unlikely as it is, it could happen.

And if a high sets up around Scandinavia temps could plummet through the floor. However your scenario is not showing in the model output as far as I am aware so not sure as to its relevance? Edited December 28, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[Djdazzle]

If the high sets up around southern Europe and sends a plume from Africa, temps could go through the roof. Unlikely as it is, it could happen.

If, by through the roof, you mean low teens, then yes. Straight southerly winds at this time of year have to cross a cool continent.

[IDO]

A great post that will sadly be lost on the hand-wringers who have declared January a bust for cold and are busy writing February's epitaph too....

A much better setup than last winter with its supercharged PV. Potential down the line that was simply not there in 13/14.

It's not that. It's many on here were expecting after the early strat warming, that the PV would be busted in late December giving multiple shots of blocking over the January-February period, increasing the chances of a UK snow event. However the SSW remains elusive and although is likely this winter, it may not occur till the backend. The potential for a blockbuster winter has diminished and of course if it happens in late January we still could have a good event but that is not a given if we miss the first shot.

So of course there is potential to still get some sort of very cold but the longer the delay the less likely for it to be memorable. Early warmings like that are few and far between, not only did we miss the cold in November but we have to now go into a long period of westerlies as the PV inevitably recovers. So I think much of the downbeat posts are from this disappointment. As for last year's winter, any future winter is going to be better than that, so maybe it is not the best reference tool. So far this winter has been average at best, and bearing in mind the background signals, very poor to date for many.

[Smiler1709]

If the high sets up around southern Europe and sends a plume from Africa, temps could go through the roof. Unlikely as it is, it could happen.

Even if we did have this set up we still would only just sqeeze a 12 or 13 Celsius. Some parts of Northern Africa are actually quite cold during winter, we normally get exceptionally mild weather when we have a mid Atlantic source and not a continental feed

[Long haul to mild]

It's not that. It's many on here were expecting after the early strat warming, that the PV would be busted in late December giving multiple shots of blocking over the January-February period, increasing the chances of a UK snow event. However the SSW remains elusive and although is likely this winter, it may not occur till the backend. The potential for a blockbuster winter has diminished and of course if it happens in late January we still could have a good event but that is not a given if we miss the first shot.

So of course there is potential to still get some sort of very cold but the longer the delay the less likely for it to be memorable. Early warmings like that are few and far between, not only did we miss the cold in November but we have to now go into a long period of westerlies as the PV inevitably recovers. So I think much of the downbeat posts are from this disappointment. As for last year's winter, any future winter is going to be better than that, so maybe it is not the best reference tool. So far this winter has been average at best, and bearing in mind the background signals, very poor to date for many.

Downbeat posts are one thing and are understandable given the promise so far unfulfilled. However, it is when it spills over into dramatic proclamations of winter's demise that people get annoyed.

I don't think many realistic posters on here ever expected a "blockbuster" winter but I will concede that we hoped for more signs of a colder spell with blocking by now. That of course does not mean it will not happen, SSW or no SSW.

[Carlrg]

Not wall to wall zonality by any stretch of the imagination according to the GFS 12z. FI I know but writing winter off at this juncture is daft imo. Loads of twists and turns to come.

 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2014 by Carlrg

[Gibby]

The op runs should be more accurate at the 144hr - 168hr time frame so imo it puts the ECM in an even worse light.

I keep banging on about this but the ECM needs to sort out it's mid north atlantic height bias - period!

 

Apologies for the late reply to this post but I think the critsicism of ECM on here as the bad guy is not borne from facts. The ECM model flies the flag above all others for many of the months past and the most recent set of verification Statistics once more support that view. Here's the most recent verification stats to prove it. Note the longer the time period the more reliable the ECM over the other models becomes. This is why I use it to compile my longer term forecasts within my website.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 3 Day

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 5 Day

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png  8 Day

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png 10 Day

Edited December 28, 2014 by Gibby

[Abyss]

It's not that. It's many on here were expecting after the early strat warming, that the PV would be busted in late December giving multiple shots of blocking over the January-February period, increasing the chances of a UK snow event. However the SSW remains elusive and although is likely this winter, it may not occur till the backend. The potential for a blockbuster winter has diminished and of course if it happens in late January we still could have a good event but that is not a given if we miss the first shot.

So of course there is potential to still get some sort of very cold but the longer the delay the less likely for it to be memorable. Early warmings like that are few and far between, not only did we miss the cold in November but we have to now go into a long period of westerlies as the PV inevitably recovers. So I think much of the downbeat posts are from this disappointment. As for last year's winter, any future winter is going to be better than that, so maybe it is not the best reference tool. So far this winter has been average at best, and bearing in mind the background signals, very poor to date for many.

 

"The potential for a blockbuster winter has diminished and of course if it happens in late January we still could have a good event but that is not a given if we miss the first shot" The Winter of 1947 didn't get going until the end of January and we all know how that turned out IDO. I think the best thing to stop aggro in this forum would be an ignore button were we wouldn't even see certain posters posts. Maybe this is already available but I'm new and haven't noticed it as of yet.

Edited December 28, 2014 by -Bomber-