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Model Output Discussion; into 2015


martthefart

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax, Leeds, Yorkshire 44m (144ft) asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather Patterns
  • Location: Kippax, Leeds, Yorkshire 44m (144ft) asl.

On a serious note, is the rise in Sea temperature fueling the jet making it stronger than in the past and overriding other weather patterns?  Getting deep and lasting cold into our tiny Island seems harder and harder as the years tick by.

 

 

post-19256-0-58379500-1420484947_thumb.p

 

 

 

 

   A really nasty looking jet for Friday. 

 

post-19256-0-06346900-1420486040_thumb.p

Edited by Carlrg
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

PV easing over Greenland, disruption to Azores high. ECM det FI trending slightly towards GFS idea.

Recm2401.gif

I will say you can see the ridge behind the lows heading into the ne of the untied states which ties in with Nick s post earlier from noaa.

I'm starting to believe something is afoot as Nick f said there's certainly a chance of change the vortex has been pushed and shoved all over the hemisphere there's bound to be a break in the pattern.

As suggested the mlb could very easily become a savour !.

Back in 2005 when we got the easterly Europe was nor especially cold but this year does see that at times Eastern Europe has been pretty cold to be fair we are first in line for the milder air it never seems to get deep into Eastern Europe with cold to our East as shown on the models there's always that chance.

I think five to ten days time things will look much different there will be a relaxation of the vortex and the mobile Atlantic pattern apart from last year was at the extreme end of vortex dominance.

And these low pressure tracks are causing alsorts of headaches even watching the forecast on TV there not confident of tracks of these systems!.

So if one rouge low pressure tracks further se then more of the uk can get some enriched polar air.

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

I'm starting to believe something is afoot

 

I would say anything remotely exciting on the models shown really can't be taking seriously.

 

You change your mind a lot EM! :p

 

The GEFS ensembles are still interesting for mid january, with plenty of MLB.

Edited by Barry95
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's GEFS 12z mean is coldest in the T+240 range, coinciding with some Atlantic ridging and an airflow from north of west, it's also a very unsettled mean with no real hint of a settled spell as such although high pressure does try to bring a fine spell for a time later in the month but unlikely to hang around for long.

post-4783-0-25638100-1420486893_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-13410500-1420486901_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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Tonight's GEFS 12z mean is coldest in the T+240 range, coinciding with some Atlantic ridging and an airflow from north of west, it's also a very unsettled mean with no real hint of a settled spell as such although high pressure does try to bring a fine spell for a time later in the month but unlikely to hang around for long.

 

Yeah so disappointing when mid to late January holds the potential for bitter cold and sunny weather.

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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon

GFS 12z op and ensembles less than inspiring for coldies with downgrades all around compared to the 00z but much too early to determine if a trend or run to run variation.

 

00z/12z ensemble comparison.

 

graphe6_1000_232_37___.gifgraphe6_1000_232_37___.gif

graphe3_1000_232_37___.gifgraphe3_1000_232_37___.gif

Noticeable that both runs have a tight spread of ensembles until the 11th and then quite a dramatic dispersion.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Yeah so disappointing when mid to late January holds the potential for bitter cold and sunny weather.

I don't like to say this but for southern England the models look awfully poor for wintry weather, Scotland does ok at times but further south it's a shambles..according to the gefs 12z mean anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Can somebody nuke the monster slug Eating our Winter please.

 

JN144-21.GIF?05-12

With all that salinity in the Atlantic you would have thought that slug would have shriveled up and died by now, but it's always there! :)

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I don't like to say this but for southern England the models look awfully poor for wintry weather, Scotland does ok at times but further south it's a shambles..according to the gefs 12z mean anyway.

 

 

Not so sure about that :wink:

 

I think we have to be patient, i still think February into March will deliver big time.

Edited by Eugene
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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset

Rpgfs2881.gifI

 

 

Is that a snow event for southern England on the 12z GFS P that I can see?

Edited by mcweather
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Not so sure about that :wink:

 

I think we have to be patient, i still think February into March will deliver big time.

Well I've been very positive so far apart from the odd blip here and there and I will continue to be. At least the models are showing occasional polar maritime incursions.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Rpgfs2881.gifI

 

 

Is that a snow event for southern England on the 12z GFS P that I can see?

Snowy for some would be very marginal S M4. I'll get excited if this is shown at T24. :wink:

post-19153-0-30691500-1420489535_thumb.jpost-19153-0-65614900-1420489550_thumb.jpost-19153-0-87831500-1420489573_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

On a serious note, is the rise in Sea temperature fueling the jet making it stronger than in the past and overriding other weather patterns?  Getting deep and lasting cold into our tiny Island seems harder and harder as the years tick by.

 

 

attachicon.gifsea-surface-temp-figure2-2014.png

 

 

 

 

   A really nasty looking jet for Friday. 

 

attachicon.gifgens-8-3-90.png

I think the rise in sea temperature is only relative to the British Isles and even that is temporary, the eons of time testify that  oceans warm and oceans cool. There is nothing harder as the years tick by to have some real cold. we have had some unusual cold over recent years .so cold for the uk is not unusual! Its just getting the synoptics right.....On the other hand you could say 1963 was the coldest since 1740 :unsure2: A look at the latest output shows a continuation of mild and cold with some stormy periods for the North on the other hand the latter side of January may be full of interest for coldies 8)  8)  8)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM ensemble spreads are not without interest especially towards day 10:

 

SLP:

 

post-1206-0-97432000-1420490775_thumb.gi

 

The spread over the ne Canada suggests a possible trough, to the west of the UK possibly a high pressure cell, under this a small low.

 

There is a lot of uncertainty upstream and highlighted by the CPC discussions, poor model agreement from days 8 to 14.

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Rpgfs2881.gifI

 

 

Is that a snow event for southern England on the 12z GFS P that I can see?

yes please BANK ,dont Panic captain Mannering ,STellas on ice ,still plenty of winter still left  :drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

You change your mind a lot EM! :p

 

The GEFS ensembles are still interesting for mid january, with plenty of MLB.

EA by name EA by nature only talking about how I see it

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

The period of the weekend 17th to 19th doesnt seem to want to go away re wintry potential.

It's been progged in some of the model output for a number of days.

Maybe the Winter 'window' is showing signs of 'opening' in around 12 days time or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well although they aren't 1947 charts, the mean charts for D10 have, at least, potential to be something other westerly mild wet and windy dominated. All charts suggest low heights directly to our north or even north-east, so potential for at least transient northerlies (remember of course these are mean charts, so they will flatten out the flow slightly). The NOAA chart also shows a slight positive anomaly over Greenland which, although not anywhere near enough the suggest a Greenland block, does also suggest to me that there is flexibility in the mid-term pattern, rather than just endless storms from the west.

814day.03.gif

EDH1-240.GIF?05-0

gensnh-21-1-240.png

 

Also, don't know if anyone has posted these (and even if this is the right thread, but as they've been used to "judge" the models recently I'll stick them here) ... I understand we want MJO phase 7, these look to have potential to me?

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

Even the GFS bias corrected one isn't without hope (if I'm reading the legend right!)

NCPE_BC_phase_21m_small.gif

Edited by rjbw
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

my thoughts late this evening after spending time with my usual charts, anomalies+AO, NAO, MJO etc

 

Overall with all 3 nil real signs of any pattern change other than the small ridge idea Greenland from north, not on ec this time but on 6-10 noaa and gfs both again=2 days, in fact it is 3 really on noaa 6-10 so it should be showing at most 2 days from now on 8-14 IF it is ‘real’, along with the trough/-ve heights to ne of uk that MIGHT work together as the 500mb flow decreases-currently no more that 25-30% probability I would say.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well although they aren't 1947 charts, the mean charts for D10 have, at least, potential to be something other westerly mild wet and windy dominated. All charts suggest low heights directly to our north or even north-east, so potential for at least transient northerlies (remember of course these are mean charts, so they will flatten out the flow slightly). The NOAA chart also shows a slight positive anomaly over Greenland which, although not anywhere near enough the suggest a Greenland block, does also suggest to me that there is flexibility in the mid-term pattern, rather than just endless storms from the west.

814day.03.gif

EDH1-240.GIF?05-0

gensnh-21-1-240.png

 

Also, don't know if anyone has posted these (and even if this is the right thread, but as they've been used to "judge" the models recently I'll stick them here) ... I understand we want MJO phase 7, these look to have potential to me?

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

Even the GFS bias corrected one isn't without hope (if I'm reading the legend right!)

NCPE_BC_phase_21m_small.gif

Sums it up really, the GFS and ensembles want to push the MJO even further into phase 8, whilst the ECM is dives into the centre at phase 6. Again is the GFS over expressing the signal?

The ECM at day 10 doesn't shout a prolonged spell of cold weather to me.

ECH1-240.GIF?05-0

A chance of a transient colder spell as low pressure dives towards us aided by heights over the high stretching out into Newfoundland. Again this hints at a similar cold spell to the end of December.

EDH1-240.GIF?05-0

Ensembles paint the same story, maybe enough give for a weak Atlantic ridge down the line but with heights remaining low over Greenland I suggest again this will likely be transient. The bias corrected GFS MJO is closer to the ECM but at least moves into phase 7 just about.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Blizzards by day 9 on GFSP for the whole of the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The new GFS still has the older brothers tricks up it's sleeve

gfs-0-216.png?18

Bye bye UK with a classic dart board low special.   :rofl:

Dubious snow predictions too.

GFS op goes for a UK/Northern Euro high bringing settled and frosty weather.

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I don't like to say this but for southern England the models look awfully poor for wintry weather, Scotland does ok at times but further south it's a shambles..according to the gefs 12z mean anyway.

Frosty!! Noo!

Who knows, Scandinavia high for Feb and it'll be southern UK jackpot

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